Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Major League Baseball · Progressive Field
Upcoming · in 81h 38m
Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland GuardiansvsPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Pittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh enters with strong recent form (3W-2L over last 5) and a +13 run differential in that span, while Cleveland has collapsed to 1W-4...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Pittsburgh Pirates

The probable starters are Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Parker Messick (CLE); Skenes carries higher swing-for-the-fences ceiling and has been one of...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have a slight edge in recent form, with a 1W-0D-4L record in their last five matches, compared to the Pittsburgh Pir...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Cleveland Guardians

Guardians hold home field advantage at Progressive Field while Pirates show only a 3-2 record in the provided recent window. Both clubs ente...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Pittsburgh Pirates

Based on the provided team context, the Pittsburgh Pirates are in significantly better recent form (3 wins in 5 games) compared to the Cleve...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a significantly better recent form (LWWWL) compared to the Cleveland Guardians (LLLLW). Although the Pirates had...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians are at home and despite recent poor form, they have a favorable starting pitching matchup and better bullpen depth. The Pirate...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 8.5

Pittsburgh has averaged 7.0 runs in its last 5 matches while Cleveland has averaged 3.4, yielding a combined expected total near 10.4. Progr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Skenes vs Messick is a strong-starter matchup; both have sub-3.00–3.50 effective-season forms and the park is neutral-to-slightly suppressiv...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown variability in their recent scoring, with the Pirates scoring 35 runs in their last five matches and the Guardians sco...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Both teams average above 7 combined runs per game in the supplied form window. Progressive Field is a neutral-to-slight hitter park with no...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% over

The Pirates have shown a strong offensive output, scoring 35 runs in their last 5 games (7 runs per game average). While the Guardians' offe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While both teams have shown poor recent scoring, the Pirates' recent form suggests they are capable of higher offensive output. The weather...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

Progressive Field is neutral but warm weather in July may increase offense. Both bullpens have had rest, but starting pitchers are not elite...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5

Pittsburgh's +13 run differential over the last 5 games and 7.0 RPG average, combined with Cleveland's recent offensive collapse (3.4 RPG),...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5

Given Skenes' ceiling and the weakened Cleveland lineup (missing middle-order power), I favor the Pirates to cover a -1.5 runline; Skenes ha...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

Given the Guardians' home-field advantage and slightly better recent form, they are likely to cover a -1 spread. However, the Pirates' compe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Cleveland Guardians

Home run-line value typically favors the Guardians given their park and the Pirates' road performance in the brief sample. Equal rest days r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

Given the Pirates' superior recent form and higher scoring output, if they secure a win, it is more likely to be by a margin of at least two...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

Considering the Pirates' superior recent form and implied pitching advantage, they are favored to win by more than one run. The Guardians' r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

The Guardians are the slightly better team and at home, but covering a 1.5-run spread requires a multi-run victory which is uncertain. Both...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Pittsburgh Pirates

Early-inning run production is driven by starter quality, lineup platoon advantage, and ballpark factors. Pittsburgh's hot offense (7.0 RPG...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Pittsburgh Pirates

First-five favors the starter who gets through the lineup efficiently; Skenes' strikeout profile and ability to produce low-contact innings...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' home-field advantage and recent form suggest they may lead after the first five innings. However, without specific starting p...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Cleveland Guardians

Early-inning edges usually track season-long home performance; Guardians' home sample is limited but still benefits from Progressive Field....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

The first five innings are heavily influenced by starting pitchers, which are unknown for this 2026 game. However, a team's overall recent f...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have shown better form and are expected to have a slight edge in the starting pitcher matchup. This suggests they are more likel...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' starting pitcher should give them an edge in the first five innings. Pirates' offense may struggle early. However, both teams...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cleveland Guardians

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Pittsburgh Pirates

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Pittsburgh Pirates

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cleveland Guardians

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Pittsburgh Pirates

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Pittsburgh Pirates

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cleveland Guardians

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1014–1026 · 50%
-717.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 08f51ef1bc650592…
Kickoff
Sun, Jul 19 · 17:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 13429,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Progressive Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-19T17:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 19 Jul 2026 17:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Cleveland Guardians"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWWWL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 35,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 17,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 10,
            "home": 10
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →