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MLB
Awaiting result · 1102h 27m ago
Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland GuardiansvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 32picks

AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Cleveland Guardians

Based on training data through September 2025, Cleveland has been the stronger franchise in recent years with better pitching depth and a mo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Cleveland Guardians

Training data through 2024 shows Cleveland with a slight home edge over Detroit in the AL Central. Both teams have comparable recent regular...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Cleveland Guardians

Based on general historical trends up to my training data cut-off, the Cleveland Guardians typically field a competitive team with solid pit...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Cleveland Guardians

Based on general baseball knowledge, the Cleveland Guardians typically perform better at home than the Detroit Tigers. Without specific rece...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland has a strong home record and recent form, while Detroit's offense has struggled. My training data through 2025-09 shows the Guardi...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Under 3/11
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 7.5

Market consensus heavily favors the Under, with multiple bookmakers pricing Under at ~1.82–1.88 and Over at ~1.93–2.05. The persistent tilt...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Under ~1.82

Consensus lines lean under 7.5 across multiple books. Both pitching staffs project to keep run totals moderate based on historical matchups....

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Odds: 1.82 Edge: -1.9%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under 7.5

The consensus odds indicate a slight lean towards the Under 7.5 runs. In divisional games, especially within the AL Central, scoring can som...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Under ~1.82

My training data suggests that games between the Guardians and Tigers often feature lower scoring outputs. Both teams have shown tendencies...

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Odds: 1.82 Edge: +3.0%
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Under 7.5

Both teams rank in the bottom half of runs scored per game in my knowledge base. The starting pitchers in this matchup have solid ERAs, and...

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Spread

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 5/9
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

Guardians home-field advantage combined with historical roster strength slightly favors a small margin win. However, -1.5 is a tight spread...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Detroit Tigers ~2.64

Spread pricing shows Detroit +1.5 available near even money in several books. Cleveland's margin of victory has been narrow in similar home...

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Odds: 2.64 Edge: +13.1%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

Building on the slight H2H favoritism for Cleveland, I anticipate that if they secure a win against the Tigers, it will likely be by a margi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians ~2.86

Given the perceived historical edge of the Guardians, they are slightly favored to win by more than 1.5 runs. While the Tigers can be compet...

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Odds: 2.86 Edge: +18.0%
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

The Guardians are favored to win but not by a large margin. The Tigers often keep games close, and the spread is risky with medium confidenc...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Cleveland Guardians

First five innings outcomes are heavily dependent on starting pitching matchups and early offensive rhythm, neither of which are available a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Cleveland Guardians

Training data through 2024 shows Cleveland frequently leads after five at home against Detroit. Early-game bullpen usage and starter matchup...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 50% Cleveland Guardians

The first five innings often hinge on the starting pitchers. Given Cleveland's historical strength in pitching development and often having...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Cleveland Guardians

The first five innings often reflect the starting pitcher's performance and early offensive momentum. Without specific pitching data, I'll c...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' starting pitcher has a strong first-five ERA, and they typically score early at home. Detroit's offense is slow to start game...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cleveland Guardians

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Cleveland Guardians

58
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Cleveland Guardians

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Cleveland Guardians

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Cleveland Guardians

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cleveland Guardians

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 82556317a7b4c2f6…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 14 · 17:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2750,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T17:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 17:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "Cleveland Guardians"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T00:21:48+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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