Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Final 3–1
Cleveland Guardians logo

Cleveland GuardiansvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–1 Locked 29picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Cleveland Guardians 3–1 Detroit Tigers

All 6 AIs backed Cleveland Guardians — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Cleveland Guardians 6/6
Correct calls
6/6
Final
3–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
Under 8.5 2/9
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Under 8.5

June baseball typically sees slightly lower scoring as weather stabilizes and starting pitchers are fresh mid-season. Both Cleveland and Det...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

AL Central matchups have trended slightly over the total in recent years. Both offenses project as average or better in 2026 projections bas...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5 Runs L

Predicting game totals without specific pitching matchups or current team offensive/defensive form for June 2026 is challenging. However, ge...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

My training data suggests that games between these two teams, especially in Cleveland, tend to be moderate-scoring affairs. Both teams can p...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both offenses have been average but Guardians' ballpark is neutral. Pitching matchups not decisive for a low-scoring game. Recent meetings h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 3/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 W

Slight home field edge combined with Guardians' marginal roster advantage suggests a modest spread favoring Cleveland. A -1.5 line reflects...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Cleveland's bullpen and home advantage support a narrow run-line lean. Detroit has shown fight on the road but rarely covers against strong...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Detroit Tigers +1.5 L

While the Guardians are favored to win outright, covering the -1.5 run line can be challenging, especially in potentially close divisional g...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians

Given the slight historical advantage and home-field edge for the Guardians, they are marginally favored to cover any small spread. The Tige...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 W

Guardians are favored but winning by multiple runs is less certain. Detroit has been competitive in close games, often covering the run line...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring in June divisional matchups tends toward caution as batters adjust to opposing starters and both pitchers enter fresh....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Cleveland Guardians

Starting pitching matchups favor Cleveland early, consistent with their recent home starts. Tigers lineup needs time to warm up on the road....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% Cleveland Guardians (F5)

The first five innings prediction heavily relies on starting pitching performance. Historically, the Cleveland Guardians have often boasted...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians' tendency to start strong at home, combined with the Tigers' occasional slow starts, makes the home team slightly more likely...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

Guardians' strong starting pitching and early offense give them an edge in the first five. Tigers' starters have been inconsistent. Likely G...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Cleveland Guardians W

The Guardians have been the stronger franchise in recent seasons with better overall roster construction and pitching depth. As the home tea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Cleveland Guardians W

Cleveland has historically held a slight edge at home against Detroit in the AL Central. Both clubs finished near .500 in recent seasons per...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Cleveland Guardians W

Based on historical performance trends observed in my training data up to its last update, the Cleveland Guardians generally maintain a comp...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Cleveland Guardians W

Based on my training data, the Cleveland Guardians have historically performed well against the Detroit Tigers. Without current live data, I...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Cleveland Guardians W

Cleveland has been strong at home and leads the AL Central with a deeper roster. Detroit has shown improvement but struggles on the road. Gu...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cleveland Guardians

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Cleveland Guardians

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Cleveland Guardians

57
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cleveland Guardians

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Cleveland Guardians

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Cleveland Guardians

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: b339e5fc27ab2133…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 13 · 20:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2674,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-13T20:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 13 Jun 2026 20:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "Cleveland Guardians"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-13T00:49:00+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →