Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers

Final: 3 – 2

Picks locked at Jun 12 · 18:21 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 8 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    187b634ff98447f0…

Sport: Fri, Jun 12 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2589,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-12T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 12 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "Cleveland Guardians"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:20:32+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Cleveland Guardians W	55% Under 8.5 V	54% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 V	56% Under 4.5 V	—
Match winner ? 58% Cleveland Guardians Cleveland has been the stronger team in recent seasons and holds a slight edge in divisional matchups. Without live access to current 2026 r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Under 8.5 MLB games in mid-June often feature settled pitching staffs and depend heavily on the specific starting pitchers. Without confirmed lineups,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 54% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Home-field advantage combined with Cleveland's recent organizational strength supports a modest run-line edge. A 1.5-run spread is narrow en... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% Under 4.5 Early-inning totals tend to be lower than full-game totals due to pitchers' command improving as they settle into matchups. Mid-June basebal... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	53% Cleveland Guardians W	52% Over V	51% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 V	52% Cleveland Guardians V	—
Match winner ? 53% Cleveland Guardians Guardians hold a slight home edge in this matchup based on historical patterns and divisional play. Training data through late 2024 shows Cl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over AL Central games have trended slightly higher scoring in recent seasons per historical data. Pitching staffs for both clubs show moderate ER... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Home field provides Cleveland a narrow advantage on the run line in divisional contests. Tigers have shown vulnerability to late deficits on... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Cleveland Guardians Early innings often favor the home starter in this matchup based on past head-to-head splits. Guardians bullpen depth supports holding leads... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	58% Cleveland Guardians W	53% under W	52% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 V	55% Cleveland Guardians V	—
Match winner ? 58% Cleveland Guardians As an AI, I do not have access to live, future-dated information such as specific lineups, recent form for June 2026, or current injuries. T... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% under This prediction relies on general MLB scoring trends and historical team performances from my training data, as specific 2026 data is unavai... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Based on my training data, the Cleveland Guardians have historically shown a capability to win games by more than one run, especially agains... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Cleveland Guardians Assuming the Guardians' historical advantage extends to their starting pitching and early offense, they are more likely to hold a lead after... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% Cleveland Guardians L	52% over L	51% Detroit Tigers V	—	53% over V
Match winner ? 55% Cleveland Guardians Without live access to current team performance and pitching matchups, predicting based on general MLB knowledge is challenging. However, hi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Predicting totals without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive/defensive form is difficult. Based on typical MLB scoring averages,... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Detroit Tigers Spread predictions are highly dependent on pitching matchups and recent team performance, which are unavailable. The Tigers are predicted to... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings 4.5 ? 53% over First five innings totals are heavily influenced by starting pitchers and early game offense. Without this information, the prediction defau... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% Cleveland Guardians W	53% Over 8.5 V	45% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 V	52% Cleveland Guardians V	—
Match winner ? 55% Cleveland Guardians Guardians have been strong at home, and Tigers historically struggle on the road. Cleveland's bullpen is deeper, giving them an edge in late... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 8.5 Both offenses have been productive, and recent head-to-head games at Cleveland often exceeded 8 runs. Starting pitchers are not elite, incre... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 45% Cleveland Guardians -1.5 Guardians are favored but not dominant enough to cover a 1.5-run spread consistently. Tigers have kept games close against Cleveland. Expect... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Cleveland Guardians Cleveland's starting pitching has been solid early in games, while Detroit's rotation has occasional first-inning struggles. Guardians' line... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Cleveland Guardians 6/6	under_8.5 1/6	Cleveland Guardians -1.5 5/6	Cleveland Guardians 3/5	over 1/1

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