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MLB
Upcoming · in 87h 19m
Cincinnati Reds logo

Cincinnati RedsvsPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 8.5

Philadelphia has scored 31 runs in 5 recent matches (6.2 per game average) while Cincinnati conceded 21 in 5 (4.2 per game), suggesting Phil...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% over

Wheeler's quality reduces run expectation but often yields low-scoring early innings while Abbott is prone to shorter outings (5–6 IP) and a...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances recently, with the Phillies scoring 31 runs in their last 5 games and the Reds sco...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Combined recent scoring pace (45 total runs in 10 games) points to an above-average total. Training data through 2025 shows Cincinnati home...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Considering the Philadelphia Phillies' high-scoring recent form, averaging 6.2 runs scored and 5.4 runs conceded per game, their matches ten...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities, and the starting pitchers, while decent, are not dominant enough to suppress scoring entirely....

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have shown run-scoring ability, with Phillies averaging 6.2 runs per game in their last five and Reds 2.8. The total is set at 8....

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Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

The Phillies' superior recent form (3W-2L) and run differential (+4 over last 5 matches) support a small margin win on the road. Cincinnati'...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the starting pitcher gap (Wheeler's recent dominance vs Abbott's shorter outings and higher home ERA) and the Phillies' deeper lineup,...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' recent form and rest days give them an advantage. While the Reds have home-field advantage, their recent struggles and potenti...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies' offensive edge and extra rest day support covering a standard run-line on the road. Reds' 1-4 home form indicates vulnerability to...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

With their superior recent form and stronger offensive output, the Philadelphia Phillies are well-positioned to win by more than one run. Th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Philadelphia Phillies

While the Phillies are favored to win, the Reds have shown the ability to keep games close, especially at home. A 1.5 run spread is challeng...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Phillies are favored to win and have been scoring heavily, making the -1.5 run line plausible. However, baseball is volatile, and the Reds c...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia's recent offensive consistency (31 runs in 5 matches, particularly strong early-game production) and Cincinnati's defensive str...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Wheeler's strength in early-to-mid starts and ability to keep runs low through five innings gives Philadelphia the edge in the first five in...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' starting pitcher has been more consistent recently, and the team's offense has been more productive in the early innings. The...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Philadelphia Phillies

Early lineup advantage leans slightly to the Phillies given better season-long road performance in training data through 2025. Home side's r...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the Philadelphia Phillies' robust recent offensive performance and overall better team form, they are more likely to establish an earl...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies' starting pitcher is expected to have an edge over the Reds' starter, and the team has been quicker off the mark scoring early. The...

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Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia arrives with superior recent form (3W-2L in last 5) and strong run production (31 scored vs 27 allowed), while Cincinnati is in...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 67% Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler is in strong recent form (regularly 6–7 IP with 1–3 ER in his last starts) and is a clear edge vs Andrew Abbott, who typically...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have shown better recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 games, while the Cincinnati Reds have lost 4 of their las...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 56% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies show superior recent form (LWWLW, +4 run differential) versus Reds' struggles (LWLLL, -7 differential). Training data through 2025...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Philadelphia Phillies

Based on the provided brief and my training knowledge (no live access or current event data is available for this future date), the Philadel...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been in better recent form than the Reds, and their starting pitcher is expected to have a better outing. Despite the Reds...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies have strong recent form (3-0-2) and five days' rest, while Reds have lost four of five and have only four days' rest. The starting...

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First five innings totals 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% over

The early game trends suggest both offenses can score against the opposing starters in the initial innings. The Phillies' offense has been s...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

67
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Philadelphia Phillies

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Philadelphia Phillies

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Philadelphia Phillies

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Philadelphia Phillies

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Philadelphia Phillies

56

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 123–84 · 59%
+72.2u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 132–106 · 55%
-10.7u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 773–656 · 54%
-459.9u
o4-mini
o4-mini 76–68 · 53%
+77.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 551–500 · 52%
-280.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 172–162 · 52%
-39.9u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 110–104 · 51%
+114.9u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 165–162 · 50%
-51.8u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 889–909 · 49%
-723.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 637–654 · 49%
-412.5u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 111–115 · 49%
+99.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 833–875 · 49%
-566.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 696–747 · 48%
-545.8u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 437–472 · 48%
-317.0u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 821–949 · 46%
-786.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 134–168 · 44%
-64.6u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 983079aa9077594a…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 7 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 10177,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-07T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 07 Jul 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
        "home": "Cincinnati Reds"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWWLW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 31,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 27
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 21
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 5,
            "home": 4
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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