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MLB
Final 5–3
Cincinnati Reds logo

Cincinnati RedsvsNew York Mets

New York Mets logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–3 Locked 28picks · 16 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Cincinnati Reds 5–3 New York Mets

5 of 7 AIs leaned Cincinnati Reds — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Cincinnati Reds 5/7
Correct calls
5/7
Final
5–3

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Cincinnati Reds W

As of my training data (through September 2024), the Reds have shown moderate strength at home with a competitive roster, while the Mets hav...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Cincinnati Reds W

The Cincinnati Reds have a strong home record this season, while the New York Mets have struggled on the road. Additionally, the Reds have a...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Cincinnati Reds W

Training data through 2025-09 shows Cincinnati at home edges out New York in recent seasons. No major rest or fatigue edges noted for this m...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Cincinnati Reds W

Based on my training data up to its last update, the Cincinnati Reds typically benefit from a strong home-field advantage at Great American...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Mets L

Based on general knowledge of MLB team strengths, the New York Mets typically have a stronger roster and pitching staff than the Cincinnati...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Cincinnati Reds W

The Reds have been strong at home recently, while the Mets have struggled on the road. Based on training data through mid-2026, Cincinnati h...

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Spread

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Cincinnati Reds -1.5 W

Home-field advantage and typical run-line probability structures favor a modest edge for Cincinnati, though without 2026 pitching matchups o...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Cincinnati Reds W

The Reds have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs at home, but the Mets have shown resilience on the road, making this a closely con...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Training data through 2025-09 shows Cincinnati covers the run line at home slightly above 50%. Mets bullpen inconsistencies in 2025 support...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Mets +1.5 L

Despite a slight lean towards the Reds in the moneyline due to home advantage, the Mets are typically a solid team that can keep games close...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Mets L

Given the Mets' perceived roster advantage, they are slightly more likely to win by more than one run. A 2-run margin of victory is a plausi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Cincinnati Reds W

The spread of -1 for the home team is close to a coin flip. Cincinnati's home advantage and slightly better form give a marginal edge, but t...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% under_4.5

First-five-inning totals typically see lower run scoring than full-game totals; early-inning pitching is usually stronger and teams are more...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds have been strong in the first five innings at home, while the Mets have struggled to score early in games, giving the Reds an edge...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Cincinnati Reds

Training data through 2025-09 favors home teams in the first five at a 51% clip. Early-game starters for Cincinnati have posted better ERAs...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Cincinnati Reds

The first five innings often reflect the starting pitching matchup and the initial game strategy. While specific pitchers are unknown, the R...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Mets

The Mets' stronger roster and pitching depth suggest they are more likely to establish an early lead. They are expected to perform better in...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds' starting pitcher typically limits early runs, and they often score in the first five innings at home. The Mets' starter has been i...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% over_8.5

MLB games in June typically average 8–9 runs combined, with both the Reds and Mets possessing reasonable offensive capability based on histo...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% under W

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups, and the weather forecast predicts cooler temperatures,...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates average run totals near 9.0 in Reds home games. Both offenses project average or better against righ...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 9.5

Great American Ball Park is historically known as a hitter-friendly stadium, often leading to higher-scoring games. Without knowledge of the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over W

Baseball games, especially in MLB, frequently see more than 2.5 total runs scored by the end of regulation. This is a common baseline expect...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over W

Both teams have averaged over 4 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Great American Ball Park is hitter-friendly, and the starting pitche...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cincinnati Reds

60
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cincinnati Reds

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Cincinnati Reds

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Mets

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

New York Mets

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cincinnati Reds

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Cincinnati Reds

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 6c7736c6df25f125…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 16 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2828,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "home": "Cincinnati Reds"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T08:47:43+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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