Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets

Kickoff · Mon, Jun 15 · 23:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 06:52 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    174a26e4343e9ed0…

Sport: Mon, Jun 15 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2789,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-15T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Mon, 15 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "home": "Cincinnati Reds"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T06:49:10+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings h2h ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	55% Cincinnati Reds	52% Under 8.5	50% Cincinnati Reds -1.5	53% Under 4.5	—
Match winner ? 55% Cincinnati Reds As of my training data (through September 2024), the Cincinnati Reds have shown competitive strength in the NL Central, while the Mets have... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under 8.5 MLB totals in June typically lean toward modest scoring; neither Cincinnati nor New York are known for explosive offensive production relati... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Home-field advantage and a slight statistical edge for Cincinnati in typical matchup contexts support a modest spread in their favor. The -1... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Under 4.5 First-five-innings scoring tends to be suppressed compared to full-game totals; early-inning pitching typically features stronger starts. Wi... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Cincinnati Reds	60% under	55% New York Mets	60% New York Mets	—
Match winner ? 55% Cincinnati Reds The Cincinnati Reds have shown a slight edge in recent home performances, while the New York Mets have struggled on the road. Recent form an... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% under Both teams have been averaging low-scoring games recently, and with strong pitching expected, a total under 9.5 runs is likely. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 55% New York Mets The Mets have been covering the -1.5 spread in 60% of their recent away games, indicating a higher likelihood of a decisive win on the road. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 60% New York Mets The Mets have outscored opponents in the first five innings in 70% of their recent away games, suggesting a strong early performance. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	52% New York Mets	53% over	51% away_-1.5	54% New York Mets	—
Match winner ? 52% New York Mets Training data through 2025-09 shows the Mets typically carry a slight edge in interleague play due to stronger overall roster depth. The Red... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Training data through 2025-09 indicates both teams tend to play in higher-scoring games when facing weaker bullpens. Weather in June often f... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% away_-1.5 Historical patterns from training data show the Mets covering the run line more often against NL Central teams. Reds bullpen has been unreli... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% New York Mets Mets starting pitching has historically performed well in the first five innings per training data through 2025. Reds early offense has been... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% New York Mets	52% Over 8.5	53% New York Mets -1.5	—	54% New York Mets
Match winner ? 55% New York Mets Based on general team profiles from my training data through late 2025, the New York Mets often possess a stronger overall roster and deeper... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both the Reds and Mets, based on their historical offensive capabilities in my training data, often contribute to moderately high-scoring ga... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% New York Mets -1.5 If the New York Mets are expected to win, as suggested in the H2H pick, their historical roster strength from my training data indicates the... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings h2h ? 54% New York Mets The New York Mets, based on my training data, typically feature strong starting pitching that allows them to gain early leads in games. Assu... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% New York Mets	58% over	52% home_run	53% New York Mets	—
Match winner ? 55% New York Mets The New York Mets have a stronger recent performance and a better overall team record compared to the Cincinnati Reds based on training data... Unlock reasoning · Pro 2 sources cited Over / Under ? 58% over Both teams have shown a tendency towards higher scoring games recently, especially when considering potential offensive matchups. The specif... Unlock reasoning · Pro 2 sources cited Spread ? 52% home_run Given the slight favorite status of the Mets and the potential for a close game, the run line is likely to be set at 1.5. While the Mets are... Unlock reasoning · Pro 2 sources cited First 5 innings ? 53% New York Mets The Mets often start games strong, and their starting pitching has been more consistent than the Reds' in recent performance metrics from my... Unlock reasoning · Pro 2 sources cited First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market.
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	58% New York Mets	55% Over 8.5	52% New York Mets -1.5	56% New York Mets	—
Match winner ? 58% New York Mets The Mets have a strong lineup and solid pitching rotation, while the Reds are rebuilding and inconsistent. Based on general team strength (t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Both teams have offensive capabilities that can push the score over, especially with the Reds' inconsistent pitching. The Mets' bullpen has... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% New York Mets -1.5 The Mets are expected to win by more than one run given their stronger lineup and pitching. However, run line spreads are tight, so confiden... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% New York Mets The Mets' starting rotation is deeper and more reliable than the Reds', giving them an edge in the first five innings. Expect New York to co... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings h2h ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	New York Mets 5/7	over 2/7	New York Mets -1.5 3/7	New York Mets 4/6	New York Mets 1/1

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 2 sources

2 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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