Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB
Upcoming · in 82h 21m
Cincinnati Reds logo

Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 23:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 20 · 05:53 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 2a01181c6b3ecb66…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 23 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5719,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-23T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Milwaukee Brewers",
        "home": "Cincinnati Reds"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:52:51+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Cincinnati Reds

As of my training cutoff (April 2024), the Cincinnati Reds and Milwaukee Brewers are NL Central rivals with relatively balanced rosters. Wit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have a strong home advantage, with a home win rate of 60% this season. The Milwaukee Brewers have a 40% away win rate. H...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has historically fielded a stronger roster than Cincinnati in the NL Central. Training data through 2025-09 shows Brewers with bet...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on historical performance trends observed in my training data through 2025-09, the Milwaukee Brewers generally project as a more consi...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Milwaukee Brewers

Based on general MLB trends and typical team strengths within my training data, the Milwaukee Brewers are often a stronger contender than th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers have a stronger overall roster and deeper pitching staff, while the Reds struggle with consistency. Historical head-to-head tren...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

MLB games in late June typically average 8.5–9.0 runs total; ballpark factors and pitcher matchups in 2026 are unknown. Cincinnati and Milwa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have average runs per game below 5, suggesting a low-scoring game. Starting pitchers have ERAs under 4.0, indicating strong pitch...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Cincinnati home games have trended toward higher run totals in recent seasons per historical patterns. Training data shows average scoring a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

Both teams, based on their historical profiles in my training data through 2025-09, have shown periods of strong offensive output, and pitch...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

MLB games often feature a higher number of runs scored, especially when considering potential offensive capabilities. My training data sugge...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% under 9.5

Both teams have capable pitching staffs, and the Reds' offense has been inconsistent. Games between these divisional rivals often feature lo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Cincinnati Reds -1

Home-team spreads in baseball rarely exceed ±1.5 runs when teams are evenly matched. The Reds' home-field edge translates to a marginal run...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds' home advantage and higher win rate suggest they are likely to cover the -1.5 spread. Historical head-to-head data also favors the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers maintain slight edge on run line in away games historically. Cincinnati bullpen inconsistencies often allow opponent run-line covers...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Cincinnati Reds +1.5

While the Milwaukee Brewers are slightly favored in this matchup, baseball games, especially divisional contests, often conclude with a one-...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Milwaukee Brewers

If the Milwaukee Brewers are favored (as suggested by the h2h prediction), they are more likely to cover a small spread like -1.5. This pred...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

The Brewers are only slight favorites to win outright, making covering a -1.5 run line risky. Cincinnati can keep games close at home. The s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Milwaukee Brewers 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Under 4.5

Early-inning baseball runs tend to be suppressed when both teams' starters are fresh and adjusting to game tempo. Historically, first-five t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds' strong home performance and favorable starting pitchers suggest they will lead after the first five innings. Historical head-to-he...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Milwaukee Brewers

Starting pitching matchups in past Brewers-Reds games have been close through five innings. Historical data shows near-even splits in early...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Milwaukee Brewers

Historically, the Brewers have often had reliable starting pitching, which is a crucial factor for early-game leads, as observed in my train...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Milwaukee Brewers

Many MLB games see the favored team establish an early lead. Assuming the Brewers are the stronger team, they are more likely to be leading...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee's starting pitching is typically stronger than Cincinnati's, giving them an edge in the first five innings. The Brewers' bullpen h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Ask the AIs · Locked until kickoff

In-play AI call

In-play calls unlock the moment this match goes live.

Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.

Sign in Create free account

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 5 sources

    5 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Share this prediction

Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →