Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Final: 3 – 5

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 08:03 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 9 graded AIs split

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    509218d96f5e89b3…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 17:40 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2751,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T17:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 17:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Arizona Diamondbacks",
        "home": "Cincinnati Reds"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T00:24:20+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Over / Under ?	Match winner ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Over 8.5 L	55% Cincinnati Reds L	52% Cincinnati Reds -1.5 V	53% Cincinnati Reds V	—
Over / Under ? 58% Over 8.5 Both Cincinnati and Arizona maintain above-average offenses in 2026. Sunday afternoon baseball at a neutral venue (Reds home field) typicall... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati is playing at home with slight momentum into mid-June. Arizona has been competitive but the Diamondbacks typically struggle in in... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Cincinnati Reds -1.5 Home-field advantage and typical Reds roster depth support a narrow run-line edge. Arizona is capable but spreads of -1.5 require a 2+ run m... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Cincinnati Reds First-five-inning markets isolate the starting pitchers and early offensive momentum. Cincinnati's starter typically holds slight advantage... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	51% over V	53% Cincinnati Reds L	52% Cincinnati Reds V	50% Cincinnati Reds V	—
Over / Under ? 51% over Both teams feature lineups capable of scoring in the middle of the order based on 2025 offensive metrics. June weather in Cincinnati typical... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 53% Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati plays at home in this matchup with a slight historical edge in interleague play against Arizona. Training data through 2025-09 sh... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Cincinnati Reds Home field advantage gives Cincinnati a narrow spread lean in training data patterns for this interleague series. Arizona has shown vulnerab... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 50% Cincinnati Reds Starting pitching matchups in 2025 data were close enough to produce even first-five results. Reds bullpen depth historically stabilizes ear... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	53% Over 9.5 L	52% Cincinnati Reds L	55% Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 V	45% Cincinnati Reds V	—
Over / Under ? 53% Over 9.5 Based on historical knowledge from my training data, Great American Ball Park is notoriously a hitter-friendly stadium, often resulting in h... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited Match winner ? 52% Cincinnati Reds My analysis is based on general team profiles and historical trends available in my training data up to early 2025, as real-time data for Ju... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited Spread ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 Even with a slight lean towards the Reds winning outright at home, I anticipate a closely contested game. The Arizona Diamondbacks, generall... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited First 5 innings ? 45% Cincinnati Reds In the absence of specific starting pitcher information for this future game, the Cincinnati Reds are given a slight edge in the first five... Unlock reasoning · Pro 1 source cited First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	52% over W	55% Arizona Diamondbacks L	53% Arizona Diamondbacks V	—	54% over V
Over / Under ? 52% over MLB games in general, and interleague play specifically, tend to have a moderate number of runs scored. Without specific pitching matchups o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks Based on training data through 2025-09, the Arizona Diamondbacks have shown a stronger historical performance and tendency to win against th... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Arizona Diamondbacks If the Diamondbacks are predicted to win (as per the h2h market), they are slightly more likely to cover a small spread like -1.5. This assu... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings 4.5 ? 54% over Early game scoring is often influenced by starting pitchers. Without specific pitching information, betting on the over in the first five in... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% Over 9.5 V	55% Arizona Diamondbacks W	50% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 V	52% Arizona Diamondbacks V	—
Over / Under ? 55% Over 9.5 Both teams have average to slightly above-average offenses and pitching staffs that can be inconsistent. In past matchups, games often excee... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks Based on my training data through June 2025, the Diamondbacks had a stronger roster and better pitching depth than the Reds. The Reds have s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 The Diamondbacks are the stronger team but covering a 1.5 run spread on the road is uncertain. However, if they win it's likely by multiple... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Arizona Diamondbacks Starting pitching advantage for Arizona based on 2025 rotation quality. Early innings often favor the better starter. The Reds' bullpen migh... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	over 2/6	Arizona Diamondbacks 3/6	Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 2/6	Cincinnati Reds 3/5	over 1/1

Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis

Reverse-engineer the match

Ask any AI to explain what happened or grade the consensus call.

Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 1 source

1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

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