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MLB
Final 2–5
Cincinnati Reds logo

Cincinnati RedsvsArizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–5 Locked 36picks · 24 graded CLV+4.1%
Recap Consensus missed

Cincinnati Reds 2–5 Arizona Diamondbacks

5 of 7 AIs leaned Cincinnati Reds — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Cincinnati Reds 5/7
Correct calls
2/7
Final
2–5

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Cincinnati Reds L

As of my training data (through September 2025), the Reds have been rebuilding with emerging talent while the Diamondbacks remain competitiv...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds ~2.05 L

The Cincinnati Reds have shown strong performance at home this season, with a solid home record. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been inconsis...

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Odds: 2.05 Edge: +6.2% 🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Cincinnati Reds L

Predicting from training data through 2024. Cincinnati has shown slightly stronger home performance in recent seasons against NL West oppone...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Cincinnati Reds L

As specific 2026 data for this future game is unavailable, this prediction relies on general team tendencies from training data through 2025...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Based on general MLB trends and team strengths known in my training data up to early 2026, the Arizona Diamondbacks have a slight edge over...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cincinnati Reds L

Reds have a slight edge at home with a better recent record, but both teams are mid-tier. No major injuries reported. Training data through...

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Spread

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 3/11
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Cincinnati Reds ~1.56 L

Cincinnati +1.5 trades at ~1.57–1.59 vs Dbacks -1.5 at ~2.43–2.58, indicating market respects home field. The 1.5 line is typical for a near...

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Odds: 1.56 Edge: -12.1%
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds ~2.75 L

Given the Reds' strong home performance and the Diamondbacks' road struggles, the Reds are likely to cover the -1.5 spread.

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Odds: 2.75 🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 48% home_ -1.5

Predicting from training data through 2024. Home teams in MLB win by 1.5+ roughly 48% of the time; slight lean to visitor covering. No 2026...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Cincinnati Reds -1.5 L

Drawing from training data through 2025 and general team characteristics, the Reds' potential offensive output at home positions them to win...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Arizona Diamondbacks

Given the slight advantage projected for the away team (Diamondbacks) in the head-to-head market, they are also favored to cover a standard...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 35% Cincinnati Reds -1.5 L

Reds are favored but not dominant; covering -1.5 is risky against a competitive Dbacks team. Low confidence due to even matchup.

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Over / Under

Consensus
Under 5/12
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5 L

MLB has trended toward slightly elevated run-scoring in recent seasons due to ball composition and strikeout rates. Both the Reds and Diamon...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Under ~1.89 W

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups, suggesting a lower-scoring game is likely.

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Odds: 1.89 🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Predicting from training data through 2024. Both teams tend toward higher-scoring games in June with typical summer conditions. No weather o...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5 L

Based on historical trends and training data through 2025, games at Great American Ball Park tend to be higher scoring due to its dimensions...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

MLB games, especially those involving teams with comparable pitching and hitting strengths as inferred from general knowledge, tend to have...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have average offenses but middling pitching staffs. Recent games have trended slightly higher scoring. Park factors suggest above...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

First-five-inning markets typically see lower run totals due to smaller sample size and fewer accumulated at-bats. Unless one team has a dom...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Cincinnati Reds

Predicting from training data through 2024. Early innings often favor the home starter; no specific pitching matchups known for 2026.

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Cincinnati Reds

Lacking specific 2026 starting pitcher information, this prediction is based on the Reds' general offensive capabilities and the boost provi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks' projected strength suggests they may perform slightly better in the early stages of the game. This prediction assu...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cincinnati Reds

Early advantage to Reds with home field and stronger bullpen setup. Both starters are average, so slight edge to home team in first five.

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Cincinnati Reds

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cincinnati Reds

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Cincinnati Reds

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Arizona Diamondbacks

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cincinnati Reds

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Cincinnati Reds

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: b20e60948b0d50a8…
Kickoff
Fri, Jun 12 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2593,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-12T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 12 Jun 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Arizona Diamondbacks",
        "home": "Cincinnati Reds"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-12T18:22:11+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    3 tool calls · 2 sources

    2 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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