Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Final: 6 – 4

Picks locked at Jun 13 · 08:19 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded · 8 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    bec3d4e0e15888ae…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2760,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
        "home": "Chicago White Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T00:26:17+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	Match winner ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	56% Over 8.5 W	58% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 V	59% Los Angeles Dodgers V	62% Los Angeles Dodgers L
Over / Under ? 56% Over 8.5 MLB games in June typically see moderate run production; both the Dodgers and White Sox have capable offensive lineups. Without live weather... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 58% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 The Dodgers' sustained competitive advantage and deeper roster suggest they should win by more than a run when facing the White Sox. A 1.5-r... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 59% Los Angeles Dodgers Early-inning advantage typically accrues to the stronger roster with better starting pitching. The Dodgers have historically fielded more re... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 62% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers are a perennial contender with superior talent depth and pitching, while the White Sox have historically been a rebuilding/weake... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	—	—	—	—
Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	56% over V	65% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 V	71% Los Angeles Dodgers V	78% Los Angeles Dodgers L
Over / Under ? 56% over Dodgers games trend toward higher run totals due to potent lineup and White Sox pitching staff allowing elevated ERAs. June weather in Chica... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 65% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Strong pitching matchup edge and offensive superiority give Dodgers high probability of covering the run line. White Sox bullpen has histori... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 71% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers typically jump on weaker starters early with their top-of-order bats. White Sox have shown poor first-inning defense and starting pi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 78% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers remain a far superior roster with better pitching depth and offense compared to the rebuilding White Sox. Training data through 2025... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	53% Over 8.5 W	60% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 V	68% Los Angeles Dodgers V	72% Los Angeles Dodgers L
Over / Under ? 53% Over 8.5 Given the Dodgers' historically potent offense and the White Sox's occasional pitching struggles, an average total for MLB (around 8.5) lean... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 60% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 The Dodgers' historical dominance suggests they often win by comfortable margins. Against a historically weaker opponent like the White Sox,... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 68% Los Angeles Dodgers The Dodgers consistently field top-tier starting pitching, which is crucial for early game success in baseball. Their strong offense also te... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 72% Los Angeles Dodgers Based on historical team performance through my training data (up to early 2024), the Los Angeles Dodgers consistently rank among MLB's elit... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	52% over V	53% Los Angeles Dodgers V	54% Los Angeles Dodgers V	55% Los Angeles Dodgers L
Over / Under ? 52% over Without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive trends, I rely on general MLB tendencies. Over the past few seasons, many games have... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Los Angeles Dodgers Given the slight perceived advantage of the Dodgers in the head-to-head matchup, they are also slightly more likely to cover a modest spread... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Los Angeles Dodgers The first five innings often reflect the starting pitcher's ability and early offensive pressure. Based on general team strengths and the as... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Los Angeles Dodgers Based on general baseball knowledge through 2025-09, the Los Angeles Dodgers are typically a stronger team than the Chicago White Sox, posse... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% Over 8.5 V	65% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 V	65% Los Angeles Dodgers V	70% Los Angeles Dodgers L
Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Dodgers offense is elite and White Sox pitching is weak, leading to potential high scoring. However, White Sox offense may struggle against... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 65% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Dodgers are expected to win comfortably, often by multiple runs. White Sox lack depth to keep it close. A 2-run margin is likely given the t... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 65% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers' starting pitchers are generally strong, and White Sox starters are below average. The first five innings should favor LA as they es... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 70% Los Angeles Dodgers Dodgers are a top-tier team with deep lineup and strong pitching, while the White Sox are rebuilding and struggling offensively. My training... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Over 8.5 3/6	Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 5/6	Los Angeles Dodgers 5/6	Los Angeles Dodgers 6/6

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