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MLB
Final 22–1
Chicago White Sox logo

Chicago White SoxvsKansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final22–1 Locked 28picks · 18 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus missed

Chicago White Sox 22–1 Kansas City Royals

4 of 7 AIs leaned Kansas City Royals — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Kansas City Royals 4/7
Correct calls
3/7
Final
22–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Over 8.5

Both the White Sox and Royals typically field balanced offenses with decent run production in mid-season matchups. AL Central games often fe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% over W

Both teams have averaged run production above 4.0 R/G (Fox Sports team lines showed KC ~4.3 R and CWS ~4.6 R), and the projected starters ar...

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🔍 researched 10 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% under L

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in recent matchups, and the starting pitchers have solid ERAs, indicating a lowe...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

White Sox pitching has historically allowed high run totals at home. Royals offense tends to produce extra-base hits in interleague play. Tr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5 W

Drawing from my training data (through 2025-09), games between the White Sox and Royals have often seen elevated run totals due to inconsist...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over W

Historically, games between these two teams, particularly at Kauffman Stadium, have a tendency to be higher scoring. Both teams can exhibit...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have average to below-average pitching staffs based on 2025 stats, while the Royals' offense is improved and the White Sox have s...

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Spread

Consensus
Kansas City Royals -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Chicago White Sox -1 W

The White Sox slight home-field edge typically translates to a -1 run line in this divisional context. Kansas City remains competitive and c...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Chicago White Sox -1.5 W

White Sox at home have the edge offensively and can win by multiple runs against a Royals staff that has been inconsistent; the projected KC...

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🔍 researched 10 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals L

The Royals have been covering the -1.5 spread in 60% of their recent away games, suggesting they are more likely to win by at least two runs...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Kansas City Royals -1.5 L

Run-line splits have been nearly even in White Sox vs Royals history. Home team bullpen fatigue often appears late but does not favor one si...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% Kansas City Royals -1.5 L

My analysis, based on historical data up to my last update (2025-09), indicates that if the Kansas City Royals secure a win against the Whit...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Kansas City Royals L

Given the slight historical edge and potential for more runs, the Kansas City Royals are slightly favored to cover a -1.5 spread. Their offe...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Kansas City Royals -1.5 L

The Royals are the better team but winning by 2 runs is not guaranteed, especially on the road. The White Sox could keep the game close, as...

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Match winner

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Chicago White Sox W

The White Sox have historically been the stronger franchise and typically command home-field advantage in this matchup. Both teams are mid-t...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Chicago White Sox W

Home-field advantage plus the White Sox's superior overall record this season (CWS ~41-38 vs KC ~34-48) and a more consistent offense make C...

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🔍 researched 10 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Chicago White Sox W

The Chicago White Sox have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Kansas City Royals have struggled on the r...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Kansas City Royals L

Both clubs are rebuilding franchises with poor recent records in available data. Royals hold a slight edge in pitching depth heading into su...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Kansas City Royals L

Based on historical data from my training knowledge (through 2025-09), the Kansas City Royals have generally held a slight performance edge...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Kansas City Royals L

Based on my training data, the Kansas City Royals have historically performed better against the Chicago White Sox in head-to-head matchups....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Kansas City Royals L

Based on training data through 2025 season, the Royals have outperformed the White Sox in recent years with a younger, more dynamic roster....

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 4.5

Early-inning run production in divisional matchups often follows mid-season offensive patterns; both offenses typically generate at least 4–...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Kansas City Royals

Early-inning results hinge on the starters: Kolek (KC) has shown flashes of effectiveness and his recent 4-2 overall line with a 4.15 ERA su...

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🔍 researched 10 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been leading after the first five innings in 70% of their recent home games, indicating a strong early-game performance.

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Kansas City Royals

Starting pitchers for both sides are comparable in prior seasons. Early-inning offense tends to be limited for these lineups. Training data...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Kansas City Royals

Based on my training data (through 2025-09), the Kansas City Royals' starting pitching has historically shown better consistency in the earl...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Kansas City Royals

Royals have a better starting pitching depth, and early innings often favor the more disciplined team. Without specific lineup/starting pitc...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Early innings can sometimes favor offenses before bullpens come into play. Both teams' starting pitchers can be prone to giving up runs, and...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago White Sox

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Chicago White Sox

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Kansas City Royals

55
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago White Sox

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Kansas City Royals

53
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Kansas City Royals

53
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Kansas City Royals

51

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 3519cfab8ba34a17…
Kickoff
Fri, Jun 26 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6344,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-26T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 26 Jun 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kansas City Royals",
        "home": "Chicago White Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-23T05:49:24+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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