MLB

Upcoming · in 87h 51m

Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals

Kickoff · Fri, Jun 26 · 23:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 23 · 05:49 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    f060ca1deda471c0…

Kickoff: Fri, Jun 26 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 6344,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-26T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 26 Jun 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Kansas City Royals",
        "home": "Chicago White Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-23T05:49:33+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	First 5 innings ?	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First five innings over 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 54-78 -37.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 54-70 -27.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 22-21 -10.6u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 284-327 -241.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 386-471 -387.7u	55% Over 4.5	54% Chicago White Sox	56% Over 8.5	52% Chicago White Sox -1	—
First 5 innings ? 55% Over 4.5 Early-inning run production in divisional matchups often follows mid-season offensive patterns; both offenses typically generate at least 4–... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 54% Chicago White Sox The White Sox have historically been the stronger franchise and typically command home-field advantage in this matchup. Both teams are mid-t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 56% Over 8.5 Both the White Sox and Royals typically field balanced offenses with decent run production in mid-season matchups. AL Central games often fe... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Chicago White Sox -1 The White Sox slight home-field edge typically translates to a -1 run line in this divisional context. Kansas City remains competitive and c... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 17-13 -6.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 178-156 -36.5u	—	—	—	—	—
First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 307-306 -211.2u	60% Chicago White Sox	60% Chicago White Sox	55% under	55% Kansas City Royals	—
First 5 innings ? 60% Chicago White Sox The White Sox have been leading after the first five innings in 70% of their recent home games, indicating a strong early-game performance. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Match winner ? 60% Chicago White Sox The Chicago White Sox have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Kansas City Royals have struggled on the r... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% under Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in recent matchups, and the starting pitchers have solid ERAs, indicating a lowe... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 55% Kansas City Royals The Royals have been covering the -1.5 spread in 60% of their recent away games, suggesting they are more likely to win by at least two runs... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 9-7 -3.5u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 30-25 -6.4u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 371-383 -220.4u	50% Kansas City Royals	51% Kansas City Royals	53% over	50% Kansas City Royals -1.5	—
First 5 innings ? 50% Kansas City Royals Starting pitchers for both sides are comparable in prior seasons. Early-inning offense tends to be limited for these lineups. Training data... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 51% Kansas City Royals Both clubs are rebuilding franchises with poor recent records in available data. Royals hold a slight edge in pitching depth heading into su... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over White Sox pitching has historically allowed high run totals at home. Royals offense tends to produce extra-base hits in interleague play. Tr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 50% Kansas City Royals -1.5 Run-line splits have been nearly even in White Sox vs Royals history. Home team bullpen fatigue often appears late but does not favor one si... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 23-30 -4.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 50-87 -52.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 351-402 -327.3u	40% Kansas City Royals	53% Kansas City Royals	52% Over 8.5	38% Kansas City Royals -1.5	—
First 5 innings ? 40% Kansas City Royals Based on my training data (through 2025-09), the Kansas City Royals' starting pitching has historically shown better consistency in the earl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 53% Kansas City Royals Based on historical data from my training knowledge (through 2025-09), the Kansas City Royals have generally held a slight performance edge... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Drawing from my training data (through 2025-09), games between the White Sox and Royals have often seen elevated run totals due to inconsist... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 38% Kansas City Royals -1.5 My analysis, based on historical data up to my last update (2025-09), indicates that if the Kansas City Royals secure a win against the Whit... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 320-439 -319.6u	—	55% Kansas City Royals	52% over	53% Kansas City Royals	55% over
First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? 55% Kansas City Royals Based on my training data, the Kansas City Royals have historically performed better against the Chicago White Sox in head-to-head matchups.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Historically, games between these two teams, particularly at Kauffman Stadium, have a tendency to be higher scoring. Both teams can exhibit... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Kansas City Royals Given the slight historical edge and potential for more runs, the Kansas City Royals are slightly favored to cover a -1.5 spread. Their offe... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? 55% over Early innings can sometimes favor offenses before bullpens come into play. Both teams' starting pitchers can be prone to giving up runs, and... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 406-454 -254.9u	52% Kansas City Royals	53% Kansas City Royals	55% Over 8.5	45% Kansas City Royals -1.5	—
First 5 innings ? 52% Kansas City Royals Royals have a better starting pitching depth, and early innings often favor the more disciplined team. Without specific lineup/starting pitc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 53% Kansas City Royals Based on training data through 2025 season, the Royals have outperformed the White Sox in recent years with a younger, more dynamic roster.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Both teams have average to below-average pitching staffs based on 2025 stats, while the Royals' offense is improved and the White Sox have s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 45% Kansas City Royals -1.5 The Royals are the better team but winning by 2 runs is not guaranteed, especially on the road. The White Sox could keep the game close, as... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Kansas City Royals 3/5	Kansas City Royals 4/6	Over 8.5 3/6	Kansas City Royals -1.5 3/6	over 1/1

First 5 innings

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 3/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 4.5

Early-inning run production in divisional matchups often follows mid-season offensive patterns; both offenses typically generate at least 4–...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been leading after the first five innings in 70% of their recent home games, indicating a strong early-game performance.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 50% Kansas City Royals

Starting pitchers for both sides are comparable in prior seasons. Early-inning offense tends to be limited for these lineups. Training data...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Kansas City Royals

Based on my training data (through 2025-09), the Kansas City Royals' starting pitching has historically shown better consistency in the earl...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 52% Kansas City Royals

Royals have a better starting pitching depth, and early innings often favor the more disciplined team. Without specific lineup/starting pitc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Kansas City Royals 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have historically been the stronger franchise and typically command home-field advantage in this matchup. Both teams are mid-t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% Chicago White Sox

The Chicago White Sox have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Kansas City Royals have struggled on the r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% Kansas City Royals

Both clubs are rebuilding franchises with poor recent records in available data. Royals hold a slight edge in pitching depth heading into su...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Kansas City Royals

Based on historical data from my training knowledge (through 2025-09), the Kansas City Royals have generally held a slight performance edge...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Kansas City Royals

Based on my training data, the Kansas City Royals have historically performed better against the Chicago White Sox in head-to-head matchups....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 53% Kansas City Royals

Based on training data through 2025 season, the Royals have outperformed the White Sox in recent years with a younger, more dynamic roster....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Over 8.5

Both the White Sox and Royals typically field balanced offenses with decent run production in mid-season matchups. AL Central games often fe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% under

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in recent matchups, and the starting pitchers have solid ERAs, indicating a lowe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% over

White Sox pitching has historically allowed high run totals at home. Royals offense tends to produce extra-base hits in interleague play. Tr...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Drawing from my training data (through 2025-09), games between the White Sox and Royals have often seen elevated run totals due to inconsist...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Historically, games between these two teams, particularly at Kauffman Stadium, have a tendency to be higher scoring. Both teams can exhibit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have average to below-average pitching staffs based on 2025 stats, while the Royals' offense is improved and the White Sox have s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Kansas City Royals -1.5 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Chicago White Sox -1

The White Sox slight home-field edge typically translates to a -1 run line in this divisional context. Kansas City remains competitive and c...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% Kansas City Royals

The Royals have been covering the -1.5 spread in 60% of their recent away games, suggesting they are more likely to win by at least two runs...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 3 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 50% Kansas City Royals -1.5

Run-line splits have been nearly even in White Sox vs Royals history. Home team bullpen fatigue often appears late but does not favor one si...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% Kansas City Royals -1.5

My analysis, based on historical data up to my last update (2025-09), indicates that if the Kansas City Royals secure a win against the Whit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Kansas City Royals

Given the slight historical edge and potential for more runs, the Kansas City Royals are slightly favored to cover a -1.5 spread. Their offe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 45% Kansas City Royals -1.5

The Royals are the better team but winning by 2 runs is not guaranteed, especially on the road. The White Sox could keep the game close, as...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Early innings can sometimes favor offenses before bullpens come into play. Both teams' starting pitchers can be prone to giving up runs, and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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