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MLB Major League Baseball · Rate Field
Upcoming · in 81h 36m
Chicago White Sox logo

Chicago White SoxvsHouston Astros

Houston Astros logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Houston Astros 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Houston Astros

Houston's consistent offensive output (6.2 RPG) in early-inning stretches over the last 5 matches provides an edge in first-five-inning play...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 40% Chicago White Sox

Martin tends to give quality first five innings, which nudges the White Sox to lead after five slightly more often; Arrighetti can be high-v...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Astros have a slightly better away record (24-27) compared to the White Sox's home record (21-29). Additionally, the Astros have a highe...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 59% Houston Astros

Starting pitcher edge and Astros lineup quality point to an early lead through five innings. White Sox have shown slow starts in recent outi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 57% Houston Astros

The first five innings are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers and the initial offensive push. Historically, the Astros have feature...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Houston Astros

The Astros tend to start games strong, particularly when their ace pitcher is on the mound, which is expected here. Their lineup has shown m...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Houston Astros

First five innings often favor the stronger starting pitching and lineup early. Astros' recent offensive start and overall team quality give...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 8.5

Combined scoring in the last 5 matches: Houston 31 + Chicago 14 = 45 runs across 10 games, averaging 4.5 runs per team per game. At Rate Fie...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Both probables project to eat innings with low walk rates: Davis Martin's recent outings have been low-run, and Arrighetti's K profile can l...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have similar runs per game (Astros 4.5, White Sox 4.8) and runs allowed per game (Astros 5, White Sox 4.3). The Astros have a hig...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% over

Both teams' recent form produced high run totals with 31 runs scored by each side in their last five games. Extended rest of 16 days for bot...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

This prediction for the total runs is based on general team offensive and pitching tendencies from my training data through 2025-09. The Hou...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

While both offenses have shown inconsistency, the Astros' recent scoring indicates potential for a higher run total. The White Sox's defense...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 85% Over 2.5

Both teams have shown high scoring in recent games: Astros scored 31 runs in 5 games, White Sox 14 in 5. Ballpark factors and typical MLB to...

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Spread

Consensus
Houston Astros -1.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Houston Astros -1.5

Houston's form advantage and offensive superiority supports a modest spread. The Astros' +0 run differential over 5 games and 3-2 record aga...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% away_ +1.5

While I favor the White Sox straight-up, the Astros on the +1.5 run line provide clear value: Arrighetti's strikeout upside and Houston's li...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Astros' away record (24-27) is slightly better than the White Sox's home record (21-29). Additionally, the Astros have a higher batting...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Houston Astros

Astros maintain clear talent advantage over the White Sox even on the road. Home form of Chicago shows defensive struggles conceding 24 runs...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Houston Astros -1.5

Building on the H2H prediction, if the Houston Astros win, they often do so by a comfortable margin given their offensive depth and strong p...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% away_ -1.5

Given the Astros' slight advantage in overall team strength and recent offensive production, they are favored to win by more than one run. T...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Houston Astros -1

Astros are favored to win by at least 2 runs given their offensive advantage and recent form. However, with no specific starter info or line...

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Match winner

Consensus
Houston Astros 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Houston Astros

Houston shows superior recent form (3W-2L, +0 run differential) over Chicago's 2W-3L record with -10 scoring margin in the last 5 matches. T...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Chicago White Sox

Davis Martin has been the steadier starter recently and the White Sox are at home in a neutral-to-slightly pitcher-friendly Rate Field; Arri...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a slightly better away record (24-27) compared to the Chicago White Sox's home record (21-29). Additionally, the Ast...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 67% Houston Astros

Houston Astros enter as the stronger club with superior talent and recent offensive output compared to the rebuilding White Sox. The provide...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Houston Astros

Given the game date of July 24, 2026, I am relying solely on my training data for general team characteristics and historical performance tr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Houston Astros

The Houston Astros have a stronger recent record and a more consistent offense compared to the Chicago White Sox. While the White Sox are pl...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% Houston Astros

Astros have stronger recent form (3-2) compared to White Sox (2-3) and superior offensive output (31 runs in last 5 games vs 14). Historical...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Houston Astros

67
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Houston Astros

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Houston Astros

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Houston Astros

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Houston Astros

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago White Sox

56
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Houston Astros

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1052–798 · 57%
-601.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 688–582 · 54%
-361.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1124–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 738–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1025–1049 · 49%
-740.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 873–924 · 49%
-722.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1013–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 46f526c930aa4ff9…
Kickoff
Fri, Jul 24 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 15220,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Rate Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-24T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 24 Jul 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Houston Astros",
        "home": "Chicago White Sox"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLWW",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 31,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 31
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 24
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 16,
            "home": 16
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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