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MLB
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Chicago White Sox logo

Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 23 · 23:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 20 · 05:54 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 167d28e7e96d5200…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 23 · 23:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5723,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-23T23:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 23 Jun 2026 23:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "home": "Chicago White Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-20T05:54:00+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Cleveland Guardians

As of my training data (through September 2025), Cleveland has been a competitive AL Central team with strong pitching depth, while the Whit...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians have shown a strong performance in recent games, with a 4-1 record in their last five matches. The Chicago White Sox...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland has shown better overall roster construction and pitching depth in recent seasons leading into 2026. Chicago's offense has struggl...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Cleveland Guardians

Based on my training data up to mid-2025, the Cleveland Guardians generally project as a slightly more consistent team with a stronger organ...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Cleveland Guardians

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Cleveland Guardians have shown a historical edge over the Chicago White Sox in head-to-head matc...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cleveland Guardians

Based on 2025 season form, the Guardians have a stronger lineup and better pitching staff than the White Sox. The Guardians have dominated t...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

MLB games typically average 8–9 runs total in regular season play. Without access to the specific starting pitchers, bullpen health, or weat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have been averaging low-scoring games recently. The Guardians have scored an average of 3.5 runs in their last five games, while...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams feature lineups prone to extra-base hits in summer conditions. Chicago's bullpen has allowed high run totals in late innings. Gua...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5

Assuming a typical MLB totals line of 8.5 runs, and given the general defensive and pitching strengths often associated with the Guardians i...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Predicting based on training data through 2025-09, the average run total for games between these two teams historically tends to hover aroun...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Under 8.5

Both teams have average offenses in 2025, and the projected starting pitchers (likely Bieber for Guardians, Cease for White Sox) are capable...

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Spread

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians -1.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

Modest lean toward Cleveland winning by 2+ runs, consistent with their historical competitive advantage over the White Sox. This reflects mo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs in their recent victories, suggesting they are likely to cover the -1.5 sprea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland's pitching staff holds a consistent advantage that translates to covering modest run lines. White Sox have been outscored on avera...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

Given a slight lean towards the Guardians in the head-to-head, I'll back them on the standard -1.5 run line spread. If Cleveland's pitching...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cleveland Guardians

Considering training data up to 2025-09, the Cleveland Guardians are projected to be slight favorites against the Chicago White Sox. This sp...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Cleveland Guardians -1.5

The Guardians are the stronger team and have a good chance to win by more than one run given their superior pitching and recent head-to-head...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Cleveland Guardians 4/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Cleveland Guardians

Early-inning performance typically correlates with starting pitcher strength and lineup depth. Cleveland's historically deeper rotation and...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians have been strong in the early innings, scoring an average of 2 runs in the first five innings over their last five games. The...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Cleveland Guardians

Early-game starters favor Cleveland's approach of working counts and manufacturing runs. Chicago has been slow out of the gate in recent sea...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 40% Cleveland Guardians F5

The first five innings often heavily depend on the starting pitchers, an area where the Guardians have historically demonstrated strength an...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Cleveland Guardians

Over the last 2 seasons, the Guardians have a strong first-five innings record thanks to a solid starting rotation. The White Sox often fall...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings n

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Based on training data through 2025-09, early game scoring trends for both teams suggest a slight tendency for runs to be scored in the firs...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 2 sources

    2 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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