Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Rate Field
Upcoming · in 81h 32m
Chicago White Sox logo

Chicago White SoxvsCincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Combined scoring over the last 5 matches is 14 + 20 = 34 runs across 10 team-games, or 3.4 per team per game. Rate Field (Chicago's home) is...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% over

Combined recent offense from the two clubs (brief-provided last-5 totals and public previews) plus Rate Field's 2026 park factors imply at l...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown a tendency to concede runs in recent games, with the Reds conceding 22 runs and the White Sox conceding 24 in their la...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% under

Both clubs rank below average in run scoring and the pitching matchup projects to suppress totals. Rate Field plays neutral-to-pitcher frien...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Based on the limited recent form data from the brief, both teams have conceded a notable number of runs in their last five games (Reds 22, W...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

While both teams have had mixed offensive results, the projected starting pitchers' recent tendencies and the ballpark conditions suggest a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Based on training data, this matchup features two struggling bullpens and offenses that have shown they can score in patches. Both teams' re...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Cincinnati Reds -1.5

Cincinnati's run-scoring edge (20 vs 14) and Chicago's defensive weakness (24 runs conceded) narrow but support a Reds win by 1–2 runs. The...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 65% Chicago White Sox +1.5

Run-line value usually favors the home +1.5 when a match lacks a clearly dominant probable starter; because confirmed starters weren't avail...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

Given the Reds' slightly better recent form and offensive performance, they are more likely to cover the -1.5 spread, indicating a potential...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Cincinnati Reds

White Sox remain one of the weakest home teams; Reds are favored on the road. Spread value leans to the better club despite venue. Training...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Chicago White Sox +1.5

Given the very slight H2H advantage for the Reds based on limited form data, the spread of -1.5 makes a Reds cover less likely. The White So...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Cincinnati Reds

Given the slight edge in projected pitching and recent offensive momentum for the Reds, they are favored to cover a -1.5 spread. The White S...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Chicago White Sox

This is a coin flip on the run line. The White Sox have a slight edge at home, but the Reds have been competitive. The -1.5 spread for the W...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring is typically suppressed relative to full-game totals, and both teams' overall offensive struggles suggest a slower pace...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Cincinnati Reds

First-five outcomes are driven predominantly by the starter matchup; because reliable probable-starter announcements for Aug 13 were not dis...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds' recent offensive performance suggests they may have an early lead in the first five innings, making them more likely to be ahead a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Cincinnati Reds

Early innings favor the stronger starting pitcher and lineup from Cincinnati. Bullpens not yet a factor. Training data through 2025-09 with...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 36% Cincinnati Reds

The first five innings heavily depend on the starting pitchers, for whom no specific 2026 data is available. However, considering the Reds'...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Reds' starting pitcher has been more reliable in the early innings, while the White Sox's starter has struggled in the first five. Given...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Cincinnati Reds 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Cincinnati Reds

Both teams are in poor recent form (2W–3L over last 5), but Cincinnati has outscored Chicago 20–14 in that span despite identical W–L record...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

With starters not reliably listed publicly for Aug 13 at the time of research, I weighted recent team form, park and run environment: Cincin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have shown slightly better recent form, with two wins and three losses in their last five games, compared to the Chicago...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati has shown modestly better recent results and roster depth than the rebuilding White Sox. Rate Field favors the visiting offense s...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Cincinnati Reds

Given the lack of specific 2026 data, this prediction relies on general team performance trends from training data and the brief's provided...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds have a slight edge due to potentially stronger starting pitching and a recent offensive surge, despite similar overall r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago White Sox

This is a prediction based on training data through 2025-09. The White Sox have a slight edge at home with a better recent pitching performa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings o4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

The early game total is projected to be slightly over due to the anticipated starting pitchers' tendencies to give up runs early in games an...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Cincinnati Reds

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Cincinnati Reds

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Cincinnati Reds

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Cincinnati Reds

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Cincinnati Reds

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chicago White Sox

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Cincinnati Reds

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: af0ba40d87ed3c67…
Kickoff
Thu, Aug 13 · 18:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24122,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Rate Field",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-13T18:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 13 Aug 2026 18:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Cincinnati Reds",
        "home": "Chicago White Sox"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLWLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 20,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 22
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 24
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 35,
            "home": 35
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →