Chicago Cubs vs Toronto Blue Jays
Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 18:20 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
e3969ce48a3977bf…
- Kickoff
- Sun, Jun 21 · 18:20 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 4947,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-21T18:20:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 18:20:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"home": "Chicago Cubs"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-18T05:50:13+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
4 markets · 6 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Chicago Cubs |
52%
Over 8.5 |
50%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 |
53%
Under 4.5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Chicago Cubs As of my training data (through September 2025), the Cubs have been rebuilding with a competitive roster while the Blue Jays have faced inju...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 8.5 Cubs–Blue Jays matchups historically feature moderate run production, often sitting in the 8–9 run range. Summer June weather at Wrigley typ...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 Home field and roster composition give the Cubs a marginal edge, but without current starting pitchers, recent form, or injury status, confi...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Under 4.5 First five innings typically see more conservative offensive approach and pitcher control before bullpen involvement. June games often featu... |
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
60%
Toronto Blue Jays |
55%
over |
60%
Toronto Blue Jays |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
Toronto Blue Jays The Toronto Blue Jays have been performing well recently, with a strong lineup and favorable head-to-head record against the Chicago Cubs. T...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Both teams have potent offenses, and the Blue Jays' pitching staff has been effective, suggesting a moderate total runs outcome. The Cubs' r...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
60%
Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays' strong recent performance and the Cubs' injury issues suggest that the Blue Jays are likely to cover the spread. The favorabl...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays' strong starting pitchers and the Cubs' recent struggles suggest that the Blue Jays are likely to lead after the first five in...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
|
|||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
54%
Chicago Cubs |
52%
over |
51%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 |
53%
Chicago Cubs |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
54%
Chicago Cubs Predicting from training knowledge through 2023 as this is a 2026 matchup with no live data. Cubs hold slight home edge in neutral projectio...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
over Predicting from training knowledge through 2023. June games trend toward higher scoring in warm weather. Both offenses project average to ab...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
51%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 Predicting from training knowledge through 2023. Home field advantage supports a narrow run-line lean for Cubs. Limited rest or travel info...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Chicago Cubs Predicting from training knowledge through 2023. Early innings favor the home starter in most projections. No lineup or bullpen data availab... |
|||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
53%
Chicago Cubs |
52%
Over |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 |
38%
Chicago Cubs F5 |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Chicago Cubs Based on my training data up to late 2025, the Chicago Cubs typically exhibit a slight home-field advantage and often have a balanced roster...
1 source cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over Both the Cubs and Blue Jays have shown the potential for high-scoring games in my historical data, with strong offensive lineups capable of...
1 source cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 Winning by more than one run is often challenging in MLB, even for a favored team. The Blue Jays' competitive nature and offensive strength...
1 source cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
38%
Chicago Cubs F5 The Cubs, playing at home, are expected to have a slight edge in the early innings, potentially leveraging their starting pitching and early...
1 source cited
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
Toronto Blue Jays |
55%
over |
52%
Toronto Blue Jays |
54%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Toronto Blue Jays Based on my training data up to early 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays generally had a stronger roster and pitching staff compared to the Chicago...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Given that the Blue Jays often feature a potent offense and the Cubs can be inconsistent but capable of scoring, this matchup likely leans t...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Toronto Blue Jays Considering the Blue Jays' general strength as indicated in my training data, they are likely to be favored by a small margin. This suggests...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays' stronger pitching and offensive capabilities, as reflected in my training data, often translate to a good performance in the... |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
58%
Chicago Cubs |
52%
over |
35%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 |
48%
Toronto Blue Jays |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Chicago Cubs The Cubs have a solid home record and strong pitching depth, while the Blue Jays are inconsistent on the road. My training data through June...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
over Both offenses are capable and the wind at Wrigley Field can carry fly balls. However, starting pitchers are solid, keeping the total close t...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
35%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 The Cubs are likely to win but not by a large margin; the -1.5 spread is risky. A close game is probable given the pitchers.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
48%
Toronto Blue Jays Blue Jays' starter has been effective early, but Cubs have a slight edge at home. The first five innings could be tight with a slight lean t... |
|||||
|
Consensus |
Chicago Cubs 4/6 |
over 4/6 |
Chicago Cubs -1.5 3/6 |
Toronto Blue Jays 3/6 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusChicago Cubs 4/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Chicago Cubs
As of my training data (through September 2025), the Cubs have been rebuilding with a competitive roster while the Blue Jays have faced inju...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays have been performing well recently, with a strong lineup and favorable head-to-head record against the Chicago Cubs. T...
Grok 4 Fast
54%
Chicago Cubs
Predicting from training knowledge through 2023 as this is a 2026 matchup with no live data. Cubs hold slight home edge in neutral projectio...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Chicago Cubs
Based on my training data up to late 2025, the Chicago Cubs typically exhibit a slight home-field advantage and often have a balanced roster...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
Based on my training data up to early 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays generally had a stronger roster and pitching staff compared to the Chicago...
DeepSeek V3
58%
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have a solid home record and strong pitching depth, while the Blue Jays are inconsistent on the road. My training data through June...
Over / Under
Consensusover 4/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over 8.5
Cubs–Blue Jays matchups historically feature moderate run production, often sitting in the 8–9 run range. Summer June weather at Wrigley typ...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
over
Both teams have potent offenses, and the Blue Jays' pitching staff has been effective, suggesting a moderate total runs outcome. The Cubs' r...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
over
Predicting from training knowledge through 2023. June games trend toward higher scoring in warm weather. Both offenses project average to ab...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Over
Both the Cubs and Blue Jays have shown the potential for high-scoring games in my historical data, with strong offensive lineups capable of...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
over
Given that the Blue Jays often feature a potent offense and the Cubs can be inconsistent but capable of scoring, this matchup likely leans t...
DeepSeek V3
52%
over
Both offenses are capable and the wind at Wrigley Field can carry fly balls. However, starting pitchers are solid, keeping the total close t...
Spread
ConsensusChicago Cubs -1.5 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
50%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Home field and roster composition give the Cubs a marginal edge, but without current starting pitchers, recent form, or injury status, confi...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays' strong recent performance and the Cubs' injury issues suggest that the Blue Jays are likely to cover the spread. The favorabl...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Predicting from training knowledge through 2023. Home field advantage supports a narrow run-line lean for Cubs. Limited rest or travel info...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Toronto Blue Jays +1.5
Winning by more than one run is often challenging in MLB, even for a favored team. The Blue Jays' competitive nature and offensive strength...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
52%
Toronto Blue Jays
Considering the Blue Jays' general strength as indicated in my training data, they are likely to be favored by a small margin. This suggests...
DeepSeek V3
35%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
The Cubs are likely to win but not by a large margin; the -1.5 spread is risky. A close game is probable given the pitchers.
First 5 innings
ConsensusToronto Blue Jays 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
53%
Under 4.5
First five innings typically see more conservative offensive approach and pitcher control before bullpen involvement. June games often featu...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays' strong starting pitchers and the Cubs' recent struggles suggest that the Blue Jays are likely to lead after the first five in...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Chicago Cubs
Predicting from training knowledge through 2023. Early innings favor the home starter in most projections. No lineup or bullpen data availab...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
38%
Chicago Cubs F5
The Cubs, playing at home, are expected to have a slight edge in the early innings, potentially leveraging their starting pitching and early...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
54%
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays' stronger pitching and offensive capabilities, as reflected in my training data, often translate to a good performance in the...
DeepSeek V3
48%
Toronto Blue Jays
Blue Jays' starter has been effective early, but Cubs have a slight edge at home. The first five innings could be tight with a slight lean t...
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Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 1 source
1 citation captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
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