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MLB Wrigley Field
Upcoming · in 84h 05m
Chicago Cubs logo

Chicago CubsvsSt. Louis Cardinals

SL
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Chicago Cubs 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Chicago Cubs

Cubs show stronger recent form (3W-2L) versus Cardinals (1W-2L) in the reference window, and Cubs have the home-field advantage at Wrigley F...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs get home-field against a Cardinals club that has rotated several younger arms (McGreevy/Pallante/etc.) while the Cubs' rotation (Im...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals have a slightly better overall record and have been performing better recently compared to the Chicago Cubs. Their r...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Chicago Cubs

Cubs hold home advantage at Wrigley Field in this classic rivalry. Training data through 2025-09 shows Cardinals with inconsistent road resu...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Chicago Cubs

This prediction relies on general baseball knowledge and training data through 2025-09, as specific details for August 2026 are unavailable....

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have a slight edge due to their recent home form and a potentially favorable pitching matchup, despite the Cardinals' recen...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago Cubs

Training data through 2025-09: Cubs have a stronger recent home record and better overall roster depth. Cardinals have been inconsistent on...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both teams combined for 42 runs in their last 5 and 3 matches respectively (Cubs 21 in 5, Cardinals 21 in 3), suggesting moderate offensive...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% under

Given probable starters from both clubs who induce weak contact and the Cubs' generally strong bullpen usage patterns, a game projecting nea...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have been scoring and conceding a moderate number of runs recently, suggesting a game with a total run count over 2.5 is more lik...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Wrigley dimensions and August conditions typically allow moderate run totals. Both teams show elevated scoring in recent matches per trainin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Based on general MLB tendencies and training data, Wrigley Field in August can be a hitter-friendly park, often leading to higher-scoring ga...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Both teams have shown offensive capability recently, with both scoring 21 runs in their last few games. While the Cubs' defense has been str...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over

Both teams have shown decent scoring in recent games, with Cardinals scoring 21 runs in 3 games and Cubs 21 in 5. The starting pitching matc...

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Spread

Consensus
Chicago Cubs -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Chicago Cubs -1.5

Cubs' home-field advantage and marginally better recent form support a slight lean toward Cubs covering a 1.5-run spread. However, the Cardi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 38% Chicago Cubs -1.5

A Cubs -1.5 (Cubs win by 2+ runs) is possible given home advantage and run support vs an inconsistent Cardinals rotation, but the line is ti...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% St. Louis Cardinals

Given the Cardinals' slight edge in recent performance and overall record, they are more likely to cover a -1 spread in this matchup.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Chicago Cubs -1.5

Home team run-line value stems from Cubs' ability to manufacture late runs at Wrigley. Cardinals' road performance against lefty-leaning mat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Chicago Cubs -1.5

This prediction aligns with the expectation of the Chicago Cubs securing a multi-run victory, building on their home-field advantage and sli...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% St. Louis Cardinals

Given the close nature of the h2h prediction and the Cardinals' need to prove themselves, they are expected to keep the game within one run....

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Chicago Cubs -1

Cubs are the stronger team at home and have a better bullpen. However, the spread of -1 is significant; the game could be close. I give it a...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Chicago Cubs 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

First five innings typically feature lower-scoring patterns in divisional matchups, as relief arms are fresher and starters' early-inning co...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Chicago Cubs

First‑five innings favor the Cubs because their probable starter and rotation depth (Imanaga/Boyd/Colin Rea group) tends to give quality ear...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals' recent form and overall performance suggest they are more likely to lead after the first five innings.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Chicago Cubs

Early-game edge to Cubs based on home-starter familiarity in past seasons. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Cardinals struggle to sco...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Chicago Cubs

The outcome of the first five innings is heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. Without specific pitcher matchups for August 2026, I a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Early game offense from both sides is anticipated. The Cubs' home advantage and the Cardinals' potential to start strong could lead to runs...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago Cubs

Cubs' starting rotation has been more reliable, and they have home advantage in the early innings. Cardinals' road struggles and inconsisten...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago Cubs

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago Cubs

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

St. Louis Cardinals

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago Cubs

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chicago Cubs

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Chicago Cubs

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Chicago Cubs

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: b2cd66a166255344…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 16 · 19:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24720,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Wrigley Field",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-16T19:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 16 Aug 2026 19:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "St. Louis Cardinals",
        "home": "Chicago Cubs"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 3,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWLL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 64,
            "home": 38
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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