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MLB Wrigley Field
Upcoming · in 83h 00m
Chicago Cubs logo

Chicago CubsvsSt. Louis Cardinals

SL
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Chicago Cubs 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have stronger recent form (3W-2L vs Cardinals 1W-2L in last 5) and play at home in Wrigley Field, a consistent advantage in basebal...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Chicago Cubs

Probable starter matchup favors the Cubs: Shota Imanaga has been pitching very well recently and projects for a quality start at home, while...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have a stronger home record (30-22) compared to the St. Louis Cardinals' away record (26-23). Additionally, the Cubs have b...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Chicago Cubs

Cubs hold home advantage at Wrigley Field and show stronger recent results in the provided form data despite a mixed stretch. Cardinals ente...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Chicago Cubs

As this game is scheduled for 2026, this prediction is based on general historical trends and training data through my last update. The Chic...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have a better recent home record and are projected to start Justin Steele, who has been a consistent performer at Wrigley F...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago Cubs

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Cubs have shown stronger recent form at home, and the Cardinals have struggled on the road. The...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have averaged 7.0 runs per game in recent form (21 runs in 3–5 matches each), and Wrigley Field is known as an offensive-friendly...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Both probable starters (Imanaga for the Cubs; Liberatore for the Cards) have recent starts supporting fewer early runs and the NWS/AccuWeath...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have been scoring and allowing runs at a moderate rate. The Cubs have scored 21 runs in their last 5 games (4.2 runs per game), w...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Wrigley Field tends to play neutral-to-hitter friendly in August with potential wind carry. Both teams have shown scoring ability in recent...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Given the future date of this game, this prediction relies on general historical patterns and training data. Wrigley Field is often a hitter...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% under

Both starting pitchers, Justin Steele and Miles Mikolas, are capable of limiting scoring. Wrigley Field generally plays as a neutral park, a...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 54% Over 8.5

Both teams have shown offensive firepower recently, averaging over 7 runs per game combined. Wrigley Field's small dimensions and favorable...

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Spread

Consensus
Chicago Cubs -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Chicago Cubs -1.5

Cubs' modest form edge and home-field advantage at Wrigley justify a slight lean to covering a 1.5-run spread, but the tight run differentia...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Chicago Cubs -1.5

A one-and-a-half run road spread is tight; I lean Cubs -1.5 because Imanaga's recent form and home offensive depth make a multi-run Wrigley...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' home advantage and recent form give them a slight edge. With a home record of 30-22 and winning 6 of their last 10 games, they are...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Home team form and ballpark give a slight edge for covering the run line. Cardinals' recent results suggest vulnerability to multi-run losse...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% St. Louis Cardinals +1.5

Based on training data and historical context for this rivalry, games between the Cubs and Cardinals are often tightly contested. While the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Chicago Cubs

Given the slight edge for the Cubs in the head-to-head market and their recent home form, they are favored to cover a -1 spread. While not a...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 48% Chicago Cubs -1.5

The Cubs are favored and have been winning decisively at home, while the Cardinals have lost close games recently. A two-run margin is plaus...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Chicago Cubs 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Chicago Cubs

First five innings tend to be dominated by starting pitcher matchup quality and early offensive aggression. Cubs' home advantage and margina...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Chicago Cubs

Imanaga's recent strong starts and the Cubs' tendency to score early at Wrigley give Chicago a better-than-even chance to lead after five in...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' home performance and recent form suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. With a home record of 30-22 and win...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Chicago Cubs

Early innings often favor the home starter at Wrigley before bullpens factor in. Provided form shows home team capable of quick starts. No 2...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 46% Chicago Cubs F5 Win

As this game is set for 2026, this prediction is drawn from my training data and general MLB tendencies. The first five innings are heavily...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 59% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs' starting pitcher, Justin Steele, has a strong track record at Wrigley Field, especially in the early innings. The Cardinals' Miles...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Chicago Cubs

Starting pitchers are most influential in the first five innings. The Cubs' starter has been more consistent, and the Cardinals' offense ten...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago Cubs

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago Cubs

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago Cubs

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Chicago Cubs

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chicago Cubs

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Chicago Cubs

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Chicago Cubs

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 3a086c2dd03d1817…
Kickoff
Fri, Aug 14 · 18:20 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24126,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Wrigley Field",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-14T18:20:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 14 Aug 2026 18:20:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "St. Louis Cardinals",
        "home": "Chicago Cubs"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 3,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWLL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 62,
            "home": 36
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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