Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Kickoff · Wed, Jul 1 · 00:05 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
61baf140905cc42b…
- Kickoff
- Wed, Jul 1 · 00:05 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 8041,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-07-01T00:05:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:05:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "San Diego Padres",
"home": "Chicago Cubs"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
5 markets · 7 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
|||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Chicago Cubs |
52%
Over 8.5 |
53%
San Diego Padres +1.5 |
54%
Chicago Cubs |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Chicago Cubs The Cubs are favored slightly as the home team at Wrigley Field, where they historically perform well. The Padres are a competitive West Coa...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over 8.5 Both the Cubs and Padres have offensive capabilities, and Wrigley Field is traditionally a hitter-friendly park with shorter dimensions and...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
San Diego Padres +1.5 While the Cubs hold home-field advantage, the Padres are a well-balanced franchise with competitive talent. A +1.5 spread for the away team...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
54%
Chicago Cubs Early-inning play often favors the home team's preparation and familiarity with the ballpark. The Cubs' Wrigley Field advantage is typically...
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
58%
Chicago Cubs |
55%
over |
68%
San Diego Padres +1.5 |
56%
Chicago Cubs (first 5 innings) |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
58%
Chicago Cubs Chicago has the stronger offense at home and the matchup is at Wrigley, where the Cubs' run production (≈4.9 R/G) outpaces the Padres (≈3.9...
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
over Combined team runs-per-game (Cubs ~4.9 + Padres ~3.9 ≈ 8.8) and a warm, sunny Wrigley forecast point modestly toward the Over 8.5. Chicago's...
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
68%
San Diego Padres +1.5 Although I favor the Cubs to win straight-up, the Cubs' wins are often close and their rotation is banged up — that increases the chance the...
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
56%
Chicago Cubs (first 5 innings) Given the Cubs' stronger offensive profile and the possibility the Padres use a mid-rotation or bullpen-heavy approach due to rotation churn...
🔍 researched
5 sources cited
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
55%
San Diego Padres |
60%
over |
55%
San Diego Padres |
55%
San Diego Padres |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
San Diego Padres The San Diego Padres have shown a strong performance in recent matchups against the Chicago Cubs, with a favorable head-to-head record. Addi...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
over Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities in recent games, suggesting a higher likelihood of a total score exceeding 2.5 runs. The...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
San Diego Padres Given the Padres' recent form and favorable head-to-head record against the Cubs, they are likely to cover the -1 spread. Their offensive pe...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
San Diego Padres The Padres' strong start to games, coupled with their recent offensive performance, suggests they will lead after the first five innings. Th...
🔍 researched
3 sources cited
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
|||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Chicago Cubs |
51%
over |
52%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 |
51%
Chicago Cubs |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Chicago Cubs No live data available for 2026 matchup; Cubs hold slight home edge based on historical Wrigley performance against Padres. Training data th...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Training knowledge indicates average MLB run totals near 8.5-9.0 in summer night games; Cubs home games trend slightly higher scoring. No we...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 Home run-line value historically favors Cubs in interleague/NL play against Padres. Training cutoff prevents current rotation or injury insi...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Chicago Cubs First-five outcomes mirror full-game home bias in training data for Cubs at Wrigley. Early-inning pitching matchups unknown so slight home p...
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
55%
Chicago Cubs |
52%
Under 8.5 |
58%
San Diego Padres +1.5 |
53%
Chicago Cubs |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Chicago Cubs This prediction relies on general MLB knowledge and the inherent home-field advantage typically seen for the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field....
1 source cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Under 8.5 Based on historical MLB scoring trends and the absence of specific offensive or pitching insights for 2026, a slight lean towards the Under...
1 source cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
58%
San Diego Padres +1.5 While the Chicago Cubs are projected to have a slight home-field advantage, the San Diego Padres are expected to keep the game competitive....
1 source cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
53%
Chicago Cubs The first five innings outcome often heavily depends on the starting pitchers, whose identities are unknown for this 2026 game. However, ext...
1 source cited
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
55%
San Diego Padres |
58%
over |
53%
San Diego Padres |
— |
56%
over |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
San Diego Padres The San Diego Padres have shown a stronger recent performance and overall season record compared to the Chicago Cubs. While the Cubs have a...
2 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
58%
over Both teams have capable offenses and their recent games have seen a moderate to high number of runs scored. The starting pitchers for both s...
2 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
53%
San Diego Padres While the Padres are favored slightly to win outright, covering a -1.5 spread requires a more convincing performance. Given the Cubs' abilit...
2 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
56%
over Both teams have a tendency to start games strong offensively, particularly in the early innings. The listed starters are not dominant strike...
2 sources cited
|
||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
60%
San Diego Padres |
55%
Under 8.5 |
40%
San Diego Padres -1.5 |
65%
San Diego Padres |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
60%
San Diego Padres Based on training data up to 2025, the Padres have a stronger overall roster and recent form, while the Cubs are in a rebuilding phase. Assu...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
55%
Under 8.5 Both teams feature solid pitching staffs, and mid-summer games at Wrigley Field often play under due to wind effects. Recent head-to-head ma...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
San Diego Padres -1.5 While the Padres are favorites, covering a 1.5-run spread is risky in a single game. The Cubs' home advantage makes a close game likely, so...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
65%
San Diego Padres The Padres have a strong starting rotation and tend to start games quickly. The Cubs' early-game offense has been inconsistent. Fatigue and...
First five innings o4.5
?
First five innings o4.5
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
Consensus |
Chicago Cubs 4/7 |
over 4/7 |
San Diego Padres +1.5 3/7 |
Chicago Cubs 3/6 |
over 1/1 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusChicago Cubs 4/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are favored slightly as the home team at Wrigley Field, where they historically perform well. The Padres are a competitive West Coa...
GPT-5 Mini
58%
Chicago Cubs
Chicago has the stronger offense at home and the matchup is at Wrigley, where the Cubs' run production (≈4.9 R/G) outpaces the Padres (≈3.9...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have shown a strong performance in recent matchups against the Chicago Cubs, with a favorable head-to-head record. Addi...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Chicago Cubs
No live data available for 2026 matchup; Cubs hold slight home edge based on historical Wrigley performance against Padres. Training data th...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Chicago Cubs
This prediction relies on general MLB knowledge and the inherent home-field advantage typically seen for the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field....
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
55%
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have shown a stronger recent performance and overall season record compared to the Chicago Cubs. While the Cubs have a...
DeepSeek V3
60%
San Diego Padres
Based on training data up to 2025, the Padres have a stronger overall roster and recent form, while the Cubs are in a rebuilding phase. Assu...
Over / Under
Consensusover 4/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over 8.5
Both the Cubs and Padres have offensive capabilities, and Wrigley Field is traditionally a hitter-friendly park with shorter dimensions and...
GPT-5 Mini
55%
over
Combined team runs-per-game (Cubs ~4.9 + Padres ~3.9 ≈ 8.8) and a warm, sunny Wrigley forecast point modestly toward the Over 8.5. Chicago's...
GPT-4o Mini
60%
over
Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities in recent games, suggesting a higher likelihood of a total score exceeding 2.5 runs. The...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Training knowledge indicates average MLB run totals near 8.5-9.0 in summer night games; Cubs home games trend slightly higher scoring. No we...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
Under 8.5
Based on historical MLB scoring trends and the absence of specific offensive or pitching insights for 2026, a slight lean towards the Under...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
58%
over
Both teams have capable offenses and their recent games have seen a moderate to high number of runs scored. The starting pitchers for both s...
DeepSeek V3
55%
Under 8.5
Both teams feature solid pitching staffs, and mid-summer games at Wrigley Field often play under due to wind effects. Recent head-to-head ma...
Spread
ConsensusSan Diego Padres +1.5 3/7
Claude Haiku 4.5
53%
San Diego Padres +1.5
While the Cubs hold home-field advantage, the Padres are a well-balanced franchise with competitive talent. A +1.5 spread for the away team...
GPT-5 Mini
68%
San Diego Padres +1.5
Although I favor the Cubs to win straight-up, the Cubs' wins are often close and their rotation is banged up — that increases the chance the...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
San Diego Padres
Given the Padres' recent form and favorable head-to-head record against the Cubs, they are likely to cover the -1 spread. Their offensive pe...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Home run-line value historically favors Cubs in interleague/NL play against Padres. Training cutoff prevents current rotation or injury insi...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
58%
San Diego Padres +1.5
While the Chicago Cubs are projected to have a slight home-field advantage, the San Diego Padres are expected to keep the game competitive....
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
53%
San Diego Padres
While the Padres are favored slightly to win outright, covering a -1.5 spread requires a more convincing performance. Given the Cubs' abilit...
DeepSeek V3
40%
San Diego Padres -1.5
While the Padres are favorites, covering a 1.5-run spread is risky in a single game. The Cubs' home advantage makes a close game likely, so...
First 5 innings
ConsensusChicago Cubs 3/6
Claude Haiku 4.5
54%
Chicago Cubs
Early-inning play often favors the home team's preparation and familiarity with the ballpark. The Cubs' Wrigley Field advantage is typically...
GPT-5 Mini
56%
Chicago Cubs (first 5 innings)
Given the Cubs' stronger offensive profile and the possibility the Padres use a mid-rotation or bullpen-heavy approach due to rotation churn...
GPT-4o Mini
55%
San Diego Padres
The Padres' strong start to games, coupled with their recent offensive performance, suggests they will lead after the first five innings. Th...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Chicago Cubs
First-five outcomes mirror full-game home bias in training data for Cubs at Wrigley. Early-inning pitching matchups unknown so slight home p...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
Chicago Cubs
The first five innings outcome often heavily depends on the starting pitchers, whose identities are unknown for this 2026 game. However, ext...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
65%
San Diego Padres
The Padres have a strong starting rotation and tend to start games quickly. The Cubs' early-game offense has been inconsistent. Fatigue and...
First five innings o4.5
Consensusover 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
56%
over
Both teams have a tendency to start games strong offensively, particularly in the early innings. The listed starters are not dominant strike...
DeepSeek V3
—
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 1 source
1 citation captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 2 sources
2 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
4 tool calls · 3 sources
3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
60 tool calls · 5 sources
5 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
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