Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres
Kickoff · Tue, Jun 30 · 00:05 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
bc96e0b29629b190…
- Kickoff
- Tue, Jun 30 · 00:05 GMT+0000
- Markets
- Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
- Odds
- 15+ live books
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 7773,
"sport": "baseball",
"venue": null,
"league": "MLB",
"starts_at": "2026-06-30T00:05:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Tue, 30 Jun 2026 00:05:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "San Diego Padres",
"home": "Chicago Cubs"
},
"version": "v1",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": [],
"note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
"extra_markets": []
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"totals",
"spreads",
"first_five_innings"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
Your call
Who wins? One tap, no signup.
AI predictions
5 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
|
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
|
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
|
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
|
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Opus 4.8 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
|||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic |
55%
Chicago Cubs |
52%
Over |
48%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 |
51%
Under 4.5 |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Chicago Cubs The Cubs have historically been the stronger franchise and typically perform well at home in June. The Padres are competitive but without ac...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
52%
Over Both the Cubs and Padres have historically run mid-to-high offensive units. Late June weather tends to favor warmer conditions that promote...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
48%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 Home-field advantage typically favors the Cubs by a small margin, but spreads this tight suggest near parity. Without current roster, pitchi...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Under 4.5 First-five-inning totals historically trend under, as opposing starters often settle in early and bullpen usage is light. Cubs-Padres matchu...
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai |
— | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai |
55%
San Diego Padres |
60%
under |
50%
San Diego Padres |
55%
San Diego Padres |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
San Diego Padres The San Diego Padres have shown a strong performance on the road this season, while the Chicago Cubs have struggled at home. Additionally, t...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
60%
under Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups. The starting pitchers for this game have also demonstr...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
50%
San Diego Padres The Padres have a strong road record, and the Cubs have struggled at home. However, the game is expected to be closely contested, making a o...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
55%
San Diego Padres The Padres have been strong in the first five innings of games this season, often building early leads. The Cubs have struggled to match thi...
🔍 researched
9 sources cited
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
o4-mini FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
Grok 4.3 FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
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|
|||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai |
53%
Chicago Cubs |
51%
over |
52%
Chicago Cubs |
51%
Chicago Cubs |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
53%
Chicago Cubs Game occurs in 2026 with no available form or lineups; Cubs receive standard home-field edge in a neutral projection. Training data through...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
51%
over Future matchup lacks pitching or weather data; default to slight lean toward over in MLB games. Historical league averages hover near nine r...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
52%
Chicago Cubs Run-line projection favors Cubs by a slim margin due to home advantage. No injury or rest information exists for 2026. Training-era data pla...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
51%
Chicago Cubs Early-inning edge defaults to home team in absence of starter data. Both clubs historically score similarly in first five frames per older t...
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship |
Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash |
52%
San Diego Padres |
53%
over_8.5 |
55%
Chicago Cubs +1.5 |
— |
42%
San Diego Padres |
|
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
52%
San Diego Padres Based on my training data up to 2025, the San Diego Padres generally possess a roster with strong offensive capabilities and solid pitching...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
over_8.5 Given that both teams are known for their offensive potential and assuming average starting pitching in a future game, a higher-scoring affa...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
55%
Chicago Cubs +1.5 Even if the Padres are favored to win, MLB games are often decided by one run, making covering a -1.5 spread challenging. The Chicago Cubs a...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
42%
San Diego Padres The first five innings are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. Given the Padres' general strength in their rotation, they are sligh... |
||||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite |
— | — | — | — | — | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market.
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
No pick on this market.
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
No pick on this market.
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
No pick on this market.
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek |
55%
Chicago Cubs |
53%
Over 7.5 |
40%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 |
48%
San Diego Padres (F5) |
— | |
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
55%
Chicago Cubs Based on training data through 2025-09, the Cubs have a slight home-field advantage and stronger roster depth. The Padres have key injuries...
Over / Under
?
Over / Under
Over / Under total points. Will the combined score be above or below the line.
53%
Over 7.5 Both teams have potent offenses, and Wrigley Field in June yields higher scoring. The projected total aligns with historical averages. No li...
Spread
?
Spread
Point spread. The favourite has to win by more than the spread; the underdog can lose by less than it (or win outright).
40%
Chicago Cubs -1.5 The Cubs are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging. Padres can keep it close. Low confidence due to lack of current lineup da...
First 5 innings
?
First 5 innings
First five innings result. Standings after five innings, regardless of late drama.
48%
San Diego Padres (F5) Padres have a strong opening pitcher, but Cubs' home advantage in first five is slight. Projected near coin flip. No bullpen data available.
First five innings ml
?
First five innings ml
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market. |
||||||
|
Consensus |
Chicago Cubs 3/5 |
over 1/5 |
Chicago Cubs -1.5 2/5 |
Under 4.5 1/4 |
San Diego Padres 1/1 |
|
Match winner
ConsensusChicago Cubs 3/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
55%
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have historically been the stronger franchise and typically perform well at home in June. The Padres are competitive but without ac...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have shown a strong performance on the road this season, while the Chicago Cubs have struggled at home. Additionally, t...
Grok 4 Fast
53%
Chicago Cubs
Game occurs in 2026 with no available form or lineups; Cubs receive standard home-field edge in a neutral projection. Training data through...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
52%
San Diego Padres
Based on my training data up to 2025, the San Diego Padres generally possess a roster with strong offensive capabilities and solid pitching...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
55%
Chicago Cubs
Based on training data through 2025-09, the Cubs have a slight home-field advantage and stronger roster depth. The Padres have key injuries...
Over / Under
Consensusover 1/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
52%
Over
Both the Cubs and Padres have historically run mid-to-high offensive units. Late June weather tends to favor warmer conditions that promote...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
60%
under
Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups. The starting pitchers for this game have also demonstr...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
over
Future matchup lacks pitching or weather data; default to slight lean toward over in MLB games. Historical league averages hover near nine r...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
53%
over_8.5
Given that both teams are known for their offensive potential and assuming average starting pitching in a future game, a higher-scoring affa...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
53%
Over 7.5
Both teams have potent offenses, and Wrigley Field in June yields higher scoring. The projected total aligns with historical averages. No li...
Spread
ConsensusChicago Cubs -1.5 2/5
Claude Haiku 4.5
48%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
Home-field advantage typically favors the Cubs by a small margin, but spreads this tight suggest near parity. Without current roster, pitchi...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
50%
San Diego Padres
The Padres have a strong road record, and the Cubs have struggled at home. However, the game is expected to be closely contested, making a o...
Grok 4 Fast
52%
Chicago Cubs
Run-line projection favors Cubs by a slim margin due to home advantage. No injury or rest information exists for 2026. Training-era data pla...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
55%
Chicago Cubs +1.5
Even if the Padres are favored to win, MLB games are often decided by one run, making covering a -1.5 spread challenging. The Chicago Cubs a...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
40%
Chicago Cubs -1.5
The Cubs are favored but covering a 1.5-run spread is challenging. Padres can keep it close. Low confidence due to lack of current lineup da...
First 5 innings
ConsensusUnder 4.5 1/4
Claude Haiku 4.5
51%
Under 4.5
First-five-inning totals historically trend under, as opposing starters often settle in early and bullpen usage is light. Cubs-Padres matchu...
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
55%
San Diego Padres
The Padres have been strong in the first five innings of games this season, often building early leads. The Cubs have struggled to match thi...
Grok 4 Fast
51%
Chicago Cubs
Early-inning edge defaults to home team in absence of starter data. Both clubs historically score similarly in first five frames per older t...
Gemini 2.5 Flash
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
48%
San Diego Padres (F5)
Padres have a strong opening pitcher, but Cubs' home advantage in first five is slight. Projected near coin flip. No bullpen data available.
First five innings ml
ConsensusSan Diego Padres 1/1
Claude Haiku 4.5
—
GPT-5 Mini
—
GPT-4o Mini
—
Grok 4 Fast
—
Gemini 2.5 Flash
42%
San Diego Padres
The first five innings are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers. Given the Padres' general strength in their rotation, they are sligh...
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
—
DeepSeek V3
—
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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.
Research trail
What each AI looked up before picking
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
0 tool calls · 0 sources
No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
-
4 tool calls · 9 sources
9 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Recent recaps
How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.
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