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MLB Major League Baseball · Wrigley Field
Awaiting result · 1002h 48m ago
Chicago Cubs logo

Chicago CubsvsNew York Yankees

New York Yankees logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs hold a modest home-field advantage at Wrigley Field (a pitcher-friendly park with wind typically blowing in) and show better recent...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole's recent form (multiple quality starts, high K rates, sub‑4.00 ERA since returning) gives the Yankees the best single‑starter ed...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have a strong lineup and have been performing well recently, while the Chicago Cubs have struggled in their recent game...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% New York Yankees

Training data through 2025 shows Yankees with superior overall roster depth and pitching staff compared to Cubs. Wrigley Field factors are n...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Yankees

Based on general franchise strength and historical performance trends, the New York Yankees often field a more robust team with consistent t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 57% New York Yankees

The Yankees have a historical edge in head-to-head matchups. Although the Cubs' recent form is slightly better, the Yankees are projected to...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago Cubs

Both teams are near league average but the Cubs have slight home-field advantage at Wrigley. The Yankees' bullpen has been overworked, while...

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Bookmaker line: New York Yankees 55%

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Under 8.0

Wrigley Field is known as a pitcher-friendly park with wind typically blowing in from left field, which dampens fly balls and suppresses sco...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under

Cole's strikeout ability and consistency makes under 8.5 attractive — he usually limits opponent baserunners through six innings and forces...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and Wrigley Field's dimensions and wind conditions often favor higher-scoring games. The combination of the...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data through 2025 indicates high-scoring tendencies at Wrigley in August with warm conditions. Both teams' recent form shows elevat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5

Wrigley Field is frequently a hitter's park, especially with favorable wind conditions, which tend to inflate run totals. Both teams, partic...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The projected starting pitchers are decent but not dominant. Wrigley Field's notorious wind blowing out to center field on a warm day is a s...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capability recently, and Wrigley Field is neutral to slight hitter's park. Starting pitchers not confirmed b...

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Bookmaker line: 6.5 · Over 52%

Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Chicago Cubs -1.5

The Cubs' superior recent form (3 wins, 4.2 runs/game) and home-field advantage at pitcher-friendly Wrigley make them slight favorites to wi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 46% New York Yankees -1.5

Predicting a Yankees win by 2+ is plausible because Cole typically eats innings and limits scoring, improving the Yankees' chance to produce...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees' recent form and superior roster suggest they will cover the -1 spread against the Cubs, who have been struggling in recent game...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% New York Yankees -1.5

Training data through 2025 gives Yankees edge in run differential against weaker Cubs rotation. Home form has been inconsistent lately. Line...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% New York Yankees -1.5

The New York Yankees, leveraging their general talent advantage, often secure wins by more than a single run when they are victorious. Despi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% New York Yankees

While the Yankees are favored to win outright, the spread of -1.5 requires them to win by at least two runs. Given the expected offensive en...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Chicago Cubs -1.5

Home team is slight favorite but winning by multiple runs is less likely. Run-line distribution reflects moderate edge for home team coverin...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 59% Chicago Cubs

Early-inning advantage typically goes to the home team with recent form and pitching edge. The Cubs' strong performance over the last 5 matc...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 64% New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole historically produces strong first‑5 innings outcomes (high K, few early runs), so New York is the logical lean for the first‑fi...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees' strong lineup and recent performance suggest they will lead after the first five innings, especially considering the Cubs' rece...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Yankees

Training data through 2025 highlights Yankees early-game advantage with strong top-of-order hitters. Starting pitcher matchup leans away bas...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% New York Yankees

The First Five Innings often hinge heavily on the starting pitcher matchup and early offensive execution. Assuming the Yankees deploy a stro...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Chicago Cubs

Home team's starting pitcher likely has slight advantage, and early game at Wrigley often favors the home team. Bullpen less of a factor in...

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First five innings totals 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% over

Both starting pitchers are capable of keeping runs off the board early, but the conditions at Wrigley Field, including a warm day and wind b...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

New York Yankees

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago Cubs

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

New York Yankees

58
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

57
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chicago Cubs

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1223–997 · 55%
-800.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 737–629 · 54%
-408.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 1541–1634 · 49%
-1,392.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1904–2028 · 48%
-1,842.7u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1066–1149 · 48%
-986.0u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1883–2084 · 47%
-1,775.4u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 1574–1830 · 46%
-1,628.8u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Bookmaker odds

1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted

Book Chicago Cubs Draw New York Yankees
Draftkings 1.99 — 1.83
Book Line Over Under
Draftkings 6.0 1.83 2.00
Book Chicago Cubs New York Yankees

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: aad051bdda0db025…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 2 · 18:20 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 18516,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Wrigley Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-02T18:20:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 02 Aug 2026 18:20:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Chicago Cubs"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLLWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWLL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 21,
            "home": 24
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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