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MLB Major League Baseball · Wrigley Field
Upcoming · in 81h 50m
Chicago Cubs logo

Chicago CubsvsNew York Yankees

New York Yankees logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks AIs split

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are at home in Wrigley Field with better recent form (3W-2L vs Yankees 2W-3L over the last 5). Despite a goal-against concern (33 c...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Chicago Cubs

For the July 31, 2026 matchup at Wrigley Field I favor the Cubs (home) — the probable-starter listings and previews show Will Warren (NYY) v...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees have a slightly better overall record and have been more successful on the road this season. Their recent form, with a 6-4 recor...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Yankees

Yankees hold superior overall roster depth and bullpen strength per training data through 2025. Cubs recent form shows defensive vulnerabili...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% New York Yankees

Based on general historical team strength and the Yankees' more stable recent defensive form, conceding fewer runs compared to the Cubs. Eve...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees have a better overall record and are in better recent form than the Cubs. Their scheduled starting pitcher, Carlos Rodón, has be...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have home-field advantage at Wrigley Field and recent form (3-2 last 5) is slightly better than the Yankees (2-3). However, the Yan...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5

Over the last 5 matches, the Cubs and Yankees combined for 35 runs across 5 games (7.0 runs per game average). Wrigley Field is historically...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

I project the game total O/U ~8.5 and favor the Over: Wrigley is sensitive to wind and temperature (FantasyPros shows warm ~84°F with ~11 mp...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have potent offenses, with the Yankees averaging 4.6 runs per game and the Cubs 5.2. The starting pitchers, Will Warren (4.00 ERA...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Wrigley Field plays as a slight hitters park in summer. Both offenses capable of 4+ runs; bullpens show fatigue signs from recent usage patt...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

Wrigley Field is historically known for being a potentially high-scoring ballpark, especially with favorable wind conditions. The Cubs' rece...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The wind at Wrigley Field is predicted to blow out, which generally increases scoring. Both starting pitchers have shown some vulnerability,...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over 8.5

Wrigley Field in July often yields higher scoring due to warm weather. Both teams have averaged around 4 runs per game recently, suggesting...

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Spread

Consensus
Chicago Cubs -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Chicago Cubs -1.5

The Cubs' superior recent form (3W-2L) and home-field advantage at Wrigley justify a modest spread lean toward Chicago. The Cubs' 7-run edge...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 42% Chicago Cubs -1.5

Backing the Cubs to cover a -1.5 runline has modest probability—I give it under 50% because the runline requires a multi-run margin and both...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees' slight edge in overall performance and away games suggests they can cover the -1 spread. Their recent form and the Cubs' home p...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% New York Yankees -1.5

Yankees starting pitching edge projects to keep games close but winnable on the run line. Cubs home form mixed with high concession totals s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% New York Yankees -1.5

Following the H2H prediction, if the Yankees are to win, there's a reasonable chance they could do so by more than one run, leveraging their...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% New York Yankees

Given the Yankees' stronger pitching and overall team performance, they are slightly favored to win by more than one run. While the Cubs can...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Chicago Cubs -1.5

The spread is tight but Cubs have a slim edge. However, winning by 2+ runs is less likely given the Yankees' ability to keep games close. Sl...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Chicago Cubs

Early-inning performance often correlates with recent form and lineup quality. The Cubs' 3W-2L streak and 21 runs scored in 5 matches sugges...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees' strong away performance and the Cubs' home advantage suggest a balanced first five innings. However, the Yankees' edge in recen...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% New York Yankees

Early game advantage leans to Yankees with stronger top of lineup and starter matchup edge from historical splits. Cubs have struggled in fi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 38% New York Yankees F5

The first five innings are heavily influenced by the starting pitchers, details of which are unavailable for this future game. Projecting fr...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% New York Yankees

Carlos Rodón has been excellent in the early innings this season, and the Yankees' offense often starts strong. While the Cubs can hit, thei...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Chicago Cubs

The first five innings often favor the home team, especially if they start a strong pitcher. Cubs' recent starts have been solid, and Wrigle...

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First five innings o/u 3.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% under

For first-five innings O/U 3.5 I lean Under (probability ~56%) because starting pitchers typically set a lower early-inning run expectation...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago Cubs

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago Cubs

57
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

New York Yankees

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chicago Cubs

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 78d0b5cd2a219a1e…
Kickoff
Fri, Jul 31 · 18:20 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 17970,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Wrigley Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-31T18:20:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 31 Jul 2026 18:20:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Chicago Cubs"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLLWL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 14,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWLL",
            "record": "3W-0D-2L",
            "scored": 21,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 19,
            "home": 22
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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