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MLB
Final 2–10
Boston Red Sox logo

Boston Red SoxvsWashington Nationals

Washington Nationals logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–10 Locked 28picks · 18 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Boston Red Sox 2–10 Washington Nationals

6 of 7 AIs leaned Boston Red Sox — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Boston Red Sox 6/7
Correct calls
1/7
Final
2–10

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Boston Red Sox L

Boston is in excellent form (4W-1L over last 5) with a +12 run differential, while Washington is struggling badly (1W-4L, -12 run differenti...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% Boston Red Sox L

Boston is favored here because Payton Tolle is in clear form (7 scoreless innings on June 26 and a sub-3.10 season ERA), while Andrew Alvare...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals W

The Nationals have a slightly better overall record and have been more successful on the road this season. Their recent form, with a 6-4 rec...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Boston Red Sox L

Boston enters with superior recent form (4-1) versus Washington's 1-4 skid. Home advantage at Fenway and extra rest day further tilt the mat...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Boston Red Sox L

Based on the provided team form, the Boston Red Sox are significantly favored, boasting a 4W-1L record compared to the Washington Nationals'...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Boston Red Sox L

The Boston Red Sox are in significantly better recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 games compared to the Nationals' 1 win in their last 5...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Boston Red Sox L

The Red Sox are at home with strong recent form (4W-1L) compared to the Nationals (1W-4L). Boston also has an extra day of rest. However, no...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Boston Red Sox -1.5 L

Boston's dominant recent form (4W-1L, +12 run diff) and rest advantage support a narrow-to-moderate victory at home. A -1.5 spread requires...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5 L

I give Boston a slight edge to cover -1.5 because Tolle's recent extended starts create a higher chance Boston will be in front when the gam...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals W

Given the Nationals' slightly better overall record and recent form, they are more likely to cover the spread in this matchup. ([sportsgrid....

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Boston Red Sox

Red Sox are the stronger club at home with better recent results and rest advantage. Nationals' poor form makes covering a road run line unl...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5 L

With the Boston Red Sox's strong recent form and home advantage against a struggling Washington Nationals team, a multi-run victory for Bost...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Boston Red Sox L

Given the Red Sox's superior form and home advantage, they are likely to win by more than 1.5 runs. Their recent scoring suggests they can o...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Boston Red Sox -1.5 L

Given the Red Sox are favored but not overwhelmingly so, covering a 1.5-run spread is uncertain. The Nationals have been losing but often by...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Over 8.5 W

Boston has scored 27 runs in 5 matches (5.4 per game) while Washington, despite poor form, scored 23 (4.6 per game). The combined run rate f...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% over W

Fenway's park profile and recent Red Sox offense (high run output over the last five games) push the expectation toward a higher total despi...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have been involved in games with varying run totals recently. The Nationals have a higher average runs per game (5.3) compared to...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Boston's offense has been productive lately while Washington's pitching has allowed high run totals. July weather in Boston typically favors...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5 W

The Washington Nationals have conceded 35 runs in their last five games (7 runs per game), indicating a vulnerable pitching staff. The Bosto...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over W

The Boston Red Sox have a strong offense, averaging 5.4 runs per game in their last 5. While the Nationals have struggled offensively, the p...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over

Both teams have been scoring a fair number of runs recently (Nationals 23, Red Sox 27 over 5 games). Fenway Park is a hitter-friendly park....

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Boston Red Sox

Early-inning advantage typically favors better offensive teams in good form. Boston's recent scoring rate and rest advantage position them t...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

Because Alvarez has averaged only about 4 innings per start recently (meaning he often leaves before the 5th inning) while Tolle has demonst...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals

The Nationals' starting pitcher, Andrew Alvarez, has a solid ERA of 3.34, suggesting they may have the advantage in the early innings. ([spo...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 60% Boston Red Sox

Early-game edge goes to the home side given stronger overall roster depth and recent scoring trends. Washington has struggled to score early...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 64% Boston Red Sox

The first five innings heavily rely on starting pitching and early offense. Given the Red Sox's overall superior form and their stronger off...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's strong offensive performance and recent winning streak suggest they will start strong, especially at home. Their ability to sc...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox have better recent form and home advantage, which often translates to early leads. However, without starting pitcher data, the e...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Boston Red Sox

68
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Boston Red Sox

68
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Boston Red Sox

66
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Boston Red Sox

65
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Boston Red Sox

65
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Boston Red Sox

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Washington Nationals

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1062–1080 · 50%
-771.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: a37dbaf50a9d829c…
Kickoff
Wed, Jul 1 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 8075,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-01T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Washington Nationals",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WLLLL",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 23,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 35
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WWWLW",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 27,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 15
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 4
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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