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MLB
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Boston Red Sox logo

Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals logo

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 30 · 23:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 27 · 05:46 GMT+0000 25 picks recorded
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 7eb2a64995fd8fef…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 30 · 23:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7806,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-30T23:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 30 Jun 2026 23:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Washington Nationals",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox are a historically stronger franchise with better offensive depth and typically superior pitching rotation compared to Washin...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals have shown a strong performance in recent games, while the Boston Red Sox have struggled with consistency. The Nati...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox are a stronger home side historically and hold the edge in divisional play. Nationals have struggled on the road in recent se...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Boston Red Sox

This prediction is based on general team strengths and historical performance from my training data, as no live data for a 2026 game is avai...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Washington Nationals

Based on training data up to 2025-09, the Boston Red Sox typically have a strong home-field advantage, but the Washington Nationals often pe...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox

Red Sox have home-field advantage at Fenway Park, though both teams are likely in rebuilding phases. Training knowledge through 2025 suggest...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 9.0

MLB games in late June typically see elevated scoring as weather warms and offenses peak mid-season. Both Red Sox and Nationals have capable...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses capable of scoring multiple runs. The Nationals' recent games have seen high-scoring affairs, and the Red So...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

MLB scoring trends have favored overs in Fenway Park matchups. Both lineups project average offense with limited bullpen depth data availabl...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% over

Given the lack of specific pitching matchups for this future game, the prediction leans on the general tendency of MLB games to hit around t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

My training data indicates that games involving both the Red Sox and Nationals, when they are statistically matched, tend to produce a highe...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Over 2.5

MLB games average around 9 runs, and even with average pitching, scoring 3+ runs is very likely. The line of 2.5 is extremely low, making Ov...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox -1.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Red Sox at home in a mid-season matchup should win by a run or two against a younger Nationals roster. The -1.5 spread reflects Boston's hom...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 50% Washington Nationals

The Nationals' recent form and the Red Sox's inconsistency suggest a close game. The Nationals are likely to win by a margin of 1-2 runs, ma...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Red Sox hold a modest home edge that often covers the run line against weaker road opponents. Nationals road performance has been below aver...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Boston Red Sox -1.5

If the Boston Red Sox are favored to win outright, they are also more likely to cover the standard -1.5 run line, especially when playing at...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Washington Nationals

Given the slight edge for the Nationals in head-to-head historical data and their demonstrated ability to perform well in close games, they...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Boston Red Sox -1.5

Home advantage is not as decisive in baseball spreads due to low scoring margins. The Red Sox are favored on the moneyline but covering -1.5...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Boston Red Sox

Early-inning advantage typically accrues to the home team with better starting pitching and fresh lineups. Red Sox starting pitching depth g...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Washington Nationals

The Nationals' starting pitcher has been dominant in the first five innings, and their offense tends to start strong. The Red Sox have strug...

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🔍 researched 1 source cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Boston Red Sox

Home starters typically hold a small advantage in the opening innings at Fenway. Nationals early offense has been inconsistent. All projecti...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Boston Red Sox

Without specific starting pitcher information, this prediction defaults to the overall perceived team strength and home-field advantage of t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Washington Nationals

The Nationals have historically shown a propensity to start games strong, especially when facing opponents where the pitching matchups are r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Boston Red Sox

The first five innings are influenced by starting pitchers, but no lineup information is available. Fenway Park gives Boston a slight edge....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 1 source

    1 citation captured — unlock with Pro

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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