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MLB
Final 3–4
Boston Red Sox logo

Boston Red SoxvsToronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–4 Locked 32picks · 17 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Boston Red Sox 3–4 Toronto Blue Jays

All 8 AIs backed Boston Red Sox — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Boston Red Sox 8/8
Correct calls
0/8
Final
3–4

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 8/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Boston Red Sox L

As of my training data through April 2025, the Red Sox have historically been competitive at Fenway Park with a strong home advantage. Witho...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Boston Red Sox L

Probable starters strongly favor Boston on paper: Sonny Gray (8-1, 3.03 ERA) versus Trey Yesavage (3-3, 3.78 ERA), and Fenway provides home-...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Boston Red Sox L

The Boston Red Sox have a home advantage at Fenway Park and have shown better recent form compared to the Toronto Blue Jays. Additionally, t...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Boston Red Sox L

Boston holds a slight historical edge in the AL East rivalry and home advantage at Fenway. Both teams were middling in 2025 standings per tr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Boston Red Sox L

Based on historical competitiveness within the AL East and the Red Sox's home advantage at Fenway Park, which can boost offensive output. Th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Boston Red Sox L

Based on general MLB team performance trends in my training data, the Boston Red Sox have historically performed well against the Toronto Bl...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Boston Red Sox L

The Red Sox have a slight edge playing at Fenway Park, but the Blue Jays are a strong offensive team. Recent form and pitching matchups are...

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Spread

Consensus
Boston Red Sox -1.5 4/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Boston Red Sox -1.5 L

Fenway Park home advantage supports a slight Red Sox favorite at the spread. The -1.5 line reflects typical AL East matchup expectations, th...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 W

A +1.5 runline (Blue Jays get 1.5 runs) is good downside protection: even if Boston wins a close pitcher's duel, Toronto covers the spread f...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays have a slightly better away record (13-20) compared to the Red Sox's home record (10-21). This marginal advantage sugg...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Boston Red Sox -1.5 L

Red Sox home run-line value appears in past seasons per training data. Pitching matchups were close. Predict from training knowledge through...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 W

Divisional matchups in MLB are typically tight, and while the Red Sox might have a slight edge to win outright, it's often difficult for eit...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Toronto Blue Jays

Since no specific spread value is provided, I'm assuming a standard spread relative to the h2h prediction. My h2h prediction favors the Red...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Boston Red Sox -1.5 L

The game is expected to be close, making it unlikely for Boston to win by more than one run. The Blue Jays are competitive, so taking the sp...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 9.0

Red Sox–Blue Jays matchups historically feature moderate run production. June weather in Boston is typically warm and clear, favoring offens...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% under W

Season run rates for both clubs sum to roughly 8 runs per game but the listed probable starters (Gray/Yesavage) lean pitching-first; Gray in...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Blue Jays averaging 4.1 runs per game and the Red Sox averaging 4.0 runs per...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

AL East games trend slightly over the total in historical matchups. Offenses were average in 2025. Predict from training knowledge through 2...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 9.5 L

Fenway Park's hitter-friendly characteristics combined with both teams historically possessing strong offensive lineups suggest a higher-sco...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive/defensive trends, predicting totals is challenging. However, general MLB trends sugge...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% over

Both teams feature potent lineups and the expected pitching matchup is not dominant. Fenway Park tends to be hitter-friendly, and recent tre...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 8/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Boston Red Sox

Early-inning advantage for Boston reflects home-field positioning and typical batting-order strength in the AL East. The draw probability ac...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 64% Boston Red Sox

First-five innings favor the starter matchup; Sonny Gray's consistency and lower ERA gives Boston the edge through five. Yesavage is solid b...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox's home advantage and recent performance suggest they may lead after the first five innings. ([baseball-reference.com](https://ww...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Boston Red Sox

Boston typically builds early leads at home in historical data. First-five outcomes mirror full-game trends. Predict from training knowledge...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox often start strong, especially at home, and the first five innings heavily feature the starting pitchers who, without specific d...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Boston Red Sox

Early game performance often reflects the overall strength of the starting pitchers and early offensive pressure. Given the historical tende...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Boston Red Sox

The first five innings are often determined by starting pitchers. Boston's projected starter has a slight edge, but it's a toss-up. The Red...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Boston Red Sox

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Boston Red Sox

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Boston Red Sox

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Boston Red Sox

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Boston Red Sox

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Boston Red Sox

54
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Boston Red Sox

52
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Boston Red Sox

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: add529a4b1510a02…
Kickoff
Thu, Jun 18 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3497,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-18T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Thu, 18 Jun 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T00:15:04+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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