Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 16 · 22:45 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 08:37 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded AIs split

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    8d713a1883058c04…

Sport: Tue, Jun 16 · 22:45 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2824,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T22:45:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 22:45:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T08:34:17+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	First five innings over 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	50% Boston Red Sox -1.5	53% Boston Red Sox	55% Boston Red Sox	52% Over 8.5	—
Spread ? 50% Boston Red Sox -1.5 Home-field advantage and historical Red Sox resilience support a moderate favoring, but without live 2026 team records, pitcher matchups, or... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Boston Red Sox First-five markets reward early offensive bursts and strong starter performance. Red Sox have historically shown early-game aggression at ho... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Boston Red Sox As of my training data (through September 2025), the Red Sox have historically been a stronger franchise with more consistent regular-season... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Red Sox–Blue Jays games historically trend toward moderate scoring in regular season play. Both teams typically feature mixed offensive fire... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—	—
Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Toronto Blue Jays	55% Toronto Blue Jays	55% Toronto Blue Jays	60% over	—
Spread ? 55% Toronto Blue Jays Given the Blue Jays' slightly better overall performance and away record, they are likely to cover the -1 spread in this matchup. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Toronto Blue Jays The Blue Jays have demonstrated a stronger start to games in recent matchups, suggesting they are likely to lead after the first five inning... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Match winner ? 55% Toronto Blue Jays The Toronto Blue Jays have a slightly better overall record and have been more consistent in recent games compared to the Boston Red Sox. Ad... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have shown the ability to score runs in recent games, and the pitching matchups suggest a moderate to high-scoring game. The over... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	49% home_-1.5	52% Boston Red Sox	53% Boston Red Sox	51% over	—
Spread ? 49% home_-1.5 Run-line value leans slightly toward the visitor given pitching matchup uncertainty. Boston's bullpen has been variable in close games. Pred... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Boston Red Sox Early-inning trends favor the home side when both starters are right-handed. Limited rest differential does not strongly favor either club.... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 53% Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox hold a modest home edge based on historical AL East trends. Toronto has shown inconsistency on the road in recent seasons. Pr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over AL East matchups have trended toward higher run totals in recent years. Both offenses feature power hitters capable of elevating scoring. Pr... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	52% Boston Red Sox +1.5	42% Toronto Blue Jays	53% Toronto Blue Jays	55% Over 8.5	—
Spread ? 52% Boston Red Sox +1.5 While the Blue Jays are slightly favored head-to-head based on my training data through 2025-09, covering a -1.5 run line against a division... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 42% Toronto Blue Jays The outcome of the first five innings heavily relies on the starting pitchers and early offensive output. Based on my general knowledge from... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 53% Toronto Blue Jays Based on general historical team strength and my training data through 2025-09, the Toronto Blue Jays often hold a slight competitive edge o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Assuming a standard total line of 8.5 runs for this MLB matchup, both the Red Sox and Blue Jays are capable of high-scoring games within the... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	51% Toronto Blue Jays	—	55% Toronto Blue Jays	52% over	53% over
Spread ? 51% Toronto Blue Jays While the head-to-head record is close, the Blue Jays have a tendency to win by multiple runs when they are the favored team, which aligns w... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? 55% Toronto Blue Jays Based on training data through 2025-09, the Toronto Blue Jays have historically held a slight edge over the Boston Red Sox in head-to-head m... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Training data suggests that games between these two teams, especially in the summer months, tend to be high-scoring affairs. Both offenses h... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? 53% over Early innings often see strong offensive performances from both teams before bullpens become a factor. Historical data indicates a good chan... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	50% Toronto Blue Jays -1	55% Toronto Blue Jays	55% Toronto Blue Jays	65% Over 2.5 first five innings	—
Spread ? 50% Toronto Blue Jays -1 A one-run spread is even given the slight edge to Toronto. The Blue Jays might win by a single run, making the spread a toss-up. No strong f... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Toronto Blue Jays Similar to full game, but with less bullpen influence, the starters' advantage for Toronto might be more pronounced. Still, home field for B... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Toronto Blue Jays Training data through 2025-09: The Blue Jays have generally outperformed the Red Sox in recent seasons, and even without live data, historic... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 65% Over 2.5 first five innings Both teams have potent lineups based on training data through 2025-09, and early scoring has been common in their matchups. With live data u... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	Boston Red Sox -1.5 2/7	Toronto Blue Jays 3/6	Toronto Blue Jays 4/7	over 3/7	over 1/1

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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