Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers

Final: 4 – 6

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 00:56 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded · 10 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    ae1bf1a1dd0aca01…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 23:20 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2776,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T23:20:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 23:20:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Texas Rangers",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T00:53:24+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

4 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	58% Boston Red Sox L	54% Over 8.5 W	52% Boston Red Sox -1.5 V	55% Boston Red Sox V
Match winner ? 58% Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox have historically stronger home performance in June and typically field a more balanced offensive lineup at Fenway Park. Texa... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 8.5 Both Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers are mid-tier offensive teams; June weather at Fenway typically favors hitting with warmer temperatures... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Boston Red Sox -1.5 Boston's home-field advantage and typical offensive capability at Fenway support a narrow spread lean toward the Red Sox, though Texas is co... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Boston Red Sox Early-game play often reflects starting pitcher quality and offense aggression in the first inning. Boston's home-crowd advantage and Fenway... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Boston Red Sox L	52% over W	53% Boston Red Sox V	54% Boston Red Sox V
Match winner ? 55% Boston Red Sox The Red Sox have shown improved performance in recent games, including a 10-1 victory over the Rangers on Friday and a 6-3 win on Saturday.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 5 sources cited Over / Under ? 52% over Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities in recent games, with the Red Sox scoring 10 and 6 runs in their last two matchups. The... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 5 sources cited Spread ? 53% Boston Red Sox The Red Sox's recent home victories and the Rangers' road struggles suggest that Boston is likely to cover the -1 spread. ([cbssports.com](h... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 5 sources cited First 5 innings ? 54% Boston Red Sox The Red Sox's recent strong starts in the first five innings, combined with the Rangers' inconsistent early-game performances, suggest Bosto... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	53% Boston Red Sox L	51% over V	52% Boston Red Sox V	51% Boston Red Sox V
Match winner ? 53% Boston Red Sox Predicted from training knowledge through late 2025. Boston typically holds a slight home edge against Texas in interleague play. No current... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Predicted from training knowledge through late 2025. Historical scoring trends in Red Sox home games favor the over. Pitching matchups for t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Boston Red Sox Predicted from training knowledge through late 2025. Red Sox hold modest run-line value at home versus Rangers. No lineup or bullpen data av... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Boston Red Sox Predicted from training knowledge through late 2025. Early-inning home advantage for Boston appears consistent historically. Full starter in... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	52% Texas Rangers W	55% Over 8.5 W	55% Boston Red Sox +1.5 V	42% Texas Rangers V
Match winner ? 52% Texas Rangers Based on my training data through early 2024, the Texas Rangers demonstrated strong overall team performance, culminating in a World Series... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Both the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox have historically featured offenses capable of putting up runs. Fenway Park, the Red Sox's home st... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Boston Red Sox +1.5 While the Texas Rangers are projected to be the stronger team, winning by more than one run (covering the -1.5 spread) is never a guarantee... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 42% Texas Rangers The Texas Rangers' overall team strength, as observed in my training data, suggests a slight advantage in starting pitching and early offens... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% Boston Red Sox L	52% over V	53% Texas Rangers V	54% Boston Red Sox V
Match winner ? 55% Boston Red Sox Without access to current form, player availability, or starting pitchers, this prediction relies on general baseball knowledge. Historicall... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over In the absence of specific pitching matchups, park factors, or recent offensive trends, predicting the total runs is difficult. A lean towar... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Texas Rangers With no information on starting pitchers, bullpen strengths, or recent team performance, predicting the spread is challenging. A slight lean... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Boston Red Sox Predicting the first five innings outcome without knowing the starting pitchers is highly speculative. I am giving a slight edge to the home... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	58% Boston Red Sox L	53% Over 9.5 V	45% Boston Red Sox -1.5 V	56% Boston Red Sox V
Match winner ? 58% Boston Red Sox Based on my training data through 2025-09, the Red Sox have a stronger home record and better overall lineup depth. The Rangers have struggl... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 9.5 Both teams have offenses that can produce runs, and Fenway Park tends to favor hitters. Starting pitching matchups are not available from tr... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 45% Boston Red Sox -1.5 The Red Sox are likely to win, but covering a 1.5-run spread is more uncertain. The Rangers can keep games close, especially with their bull... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% Boston Red Sox The Red Sox have a strong early-game offense and typically score in the first few innings at home. The Rangers' starting pitchers have been... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Boston Red Sox 6/7	over 4/7	Boston Red Sox -1.5 3/7	Boston Red Sox 5/7

Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis

Reverse-engineer the match

Ask any AI to explain what happened or grade the consensus call.

Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 5 sources

5 citations captured — unlock with Pro

Share this prediction

Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.