MLB

Upcoming · in 85h 56m

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 28 · 23:20 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 25 · 05:50 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief. Open chat →

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    64688dd91e06feb7…

Kickoff: Sun, Jun 28 · 23:20 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7586,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-28T23:20:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 28 Jun 2026 23:20:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?	First five innings over 4.5 ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 65-91 -45.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 67-82 -31.4u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 36-31 -13.2u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 299-338 -243.9u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 439-524 -428.8u	52% Boston Red Sox	54% Over 9.0	48% New York Yankees	51% Under 4.5	—
Match winner ? 52% Boston Red Sox This is a marquee AL East matchup with no live odds or recent form data available to me. Based on historical Red Sox-Yankees dynamics and ty... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 9.0 Red Sox-Yankees games historically trend toward run-heavy offensive output, particularly in June when weather is warm and hitters are in mid... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% New York Yankees The Yankees, historically the stronger franchise with deeper recent playoff appearances (in my training window), often attract slight bettin... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 51% Under 4.5 First-five-inning totals typically reflect starting pitcher quality and early-game offensive patterns. Absent current pitcher names and rece... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 30-18 -3.0u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 230-206 -66.0u	—	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 372-373 -262.6u	65% New York Yankees	55% over	60% New York Yankees	55% New York Yankees	—
Match winner ? 65% New York Yankees The Yankees have a superior record (37-26) compared to the Red Sox (27-35) and have shown better performance in recent matchups. Additionall... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have potent offenses, with the Yankees leading MLB in home runs and the Red Sox having a solid lineup. The game is expected to be... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 60% New York Yankees The Yankees' superior record and recent form suggest they will cover the -1 spread against the Red Sox in this matchup. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% New York Yankees The Yankees' strong lineup and pitching staff are expected to give them an early advantage in the first five innings of the game. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 17-11 -4.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 48-36 -1.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 414-424 -241.1u	52% New York Yankees	53% over	51% New York Yankees	50% Boston Red Sox	—
Match winner ? 52% New York Yankees Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. Yankees have historically held a slight ed... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. AL East matchups often feature high run to... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% New York Yankees Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. Run-line results in this rivalry have lean... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 50% Boston Red Sox Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. First-five outcomes in Fenway games have b... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 37-42 -10.7u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 63-97 -57.1u	Flagship picks across 5 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 406-450 -359.0u	55% New York Yankees	52% Over 9.5	51% New York Yankees -1.5	53% New York Yankees	—
Match winner ? 55% New York Yankees Given the future date of the event (2026-06-28), specific real-time data like current form, lineups, and injuries are unavailable. This pred... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 9.5 Based on my training data up to 2025-09, games at Fenway Park, the home of the Boston Red Sox, are historically known to be higher-scoring d... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% New York Yankees -1.5 Considering this is a future game (2026-06-28), my pick for the spread relies on general team dynamics from my training data through 2025-09... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% New York Yankees For a game far in the future (2026-06-28), this prediction is based on the general strength of starting rotations observed in my training da... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 380-484 -345.4u	55% New York Yankees	52% over	53% New York Yankees	—	51% over
Match winner ? 55% New York Yankees Predicting based on general knowledge of historical team strengths and recent performance trends, the New York Yankees have historically sho... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and considering typical MLB scoring, the total runs are projected to slightly favor the 'over... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% New York Yankees The Yankees' historical strength and tendency to perform well against divisional rivals suggest they are slightly more likely to cover a -1.... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. First five innings over 4.5 ? 51% over Early game dynamics in baseball can be influenced by starting pitchers and aggressive offenses. A slight lean towards 'over' 4.5 runs in the... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 456-512 -300.1u	58% Boston Red Sox	55% Over 8.5	48% Boston Red Sox -1.5	53% Boston Red Sox	—
Match winner ? 58% Boston Red Sox Training data through 2025 season shows the Red Sox with strong form at Fenway Park and a deeper pitching rotation. While the Yankees are co... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% Over 8.5 Both teams have potent lineups and the matchup at Fenway Park typically favors hitting. Recent meetings have trended over, and starting pitc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 48% Boston Red Sox -1.5 The Red Sox are only slight favorites to win by multiple runs given Fenway's unpredictable nature. The Yankees cover the spread more often i... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Boston Red Sox Boston's bullpen is strong, but their starting pitcher typically holds the Yankees in check early at home. The first five innings are closer... Unlock reasoning · Pro First five innings over 4.5 ? No pick on this market.
Consensus	New York Yankees 4/6	over 3/6	New York Yankees 4/6	Boston Red Sox 2/5	over 1/1

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Boston Red Sox

This is a marquee AL East matchup with no live odds or recent form data available to me. Based on historical Red Sox-Yankees dynamics and ty...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 65% New York Yankees

The Yankees have a superior record (37-26) compared to the Red Sox (27-35) and have shown better performance in recent matchups. Additionall...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% New York Yankees

Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. Yankees have historically held a slight ed...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Yankees

Given the future date of the event (2026-06-28), specific real-time data like current form, lineups, and injuries are unavailable. This pred...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Yankees

Predicting based on general knowledge of historical team strengths and recent performance trends, the New York Yankees have historically sho...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 58% Boston Red Sox

Training data through 2025 season shows the Red Sox with strong form at Fenway Park and a deeper pitching rotation. While the Yankees are co...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 9.0

Red Sox-Yankees games historically trend toward run-heavy offensive output, particularly in June when weather is warm and hitters are in mid...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses, with the Yankees leading MLB in home runs and the Red Sox having a solid lineup. The game is expected to be...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. AL East matchups often feature high run to...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 9.5

Based on my training data up to 2025-09, games at Fenway Park, the home of the Boston Red Sox, are historically known to be higher-scoring d...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and considering typical MLB scoring, the total runs are projected to slightly favor the 'over...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have potent lineups and the matchup at Fenway Park typically favors hitting. Recent meetings have trended over, and starting pitc...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 48% New York Yankees

The Yankees, historically the stronger franchise with deeper recent playoff appearances (in my training window), often attract slight bettin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees' superior record and recent form suggest they will cover the -1 spread against the Red Sox in this matchup.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% New York Yankees

Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. Run-line results in this rivalry have lean...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% New York Yankees -1.5

Considering this is a future game (2026-06-28), my pick for the spread relies on general team dynamics from my training data through 2025-09...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% New York Yankees

The Yankees' historical strength and tendency to perform well against divisional rivals suggest they are slightly more likely to cover a -1....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 48% Boston Red Sox -1.5

The Red Sox are only slight favorites to win by multiple runs given Fenway's unpredictable nature. The Yankees cover the spread more often i...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Boston Red Sox 2/5

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals typically reflect starting pitcher quality and early-game offensive patterns. Absent current pitcher names and rece...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees' strong lineup and pitching staff are expected to give them an early advantage in the first five innings of the game.

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 50% Boston Red Sox

Predicted from training knowledge through 2025-09 as game is in 2026 with no live data available. First-five outcomes in Fenway games have b...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% New York Yankees

For a game far in the future (2026-06-28), this prediction is based on the general strength of starting rotations observed in my training da...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —

DeepSeek V3 53% Boston Red Sox

Boston's bullpen is strong, but their starting pitcher typically holds the Yankees in check early at home. The first five innings are closer...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 —

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini —

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast —

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash —

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

Early game dynamics in baseball can be influenced by starting pitchers and aggressive offenses. A slight lean towards 'over' 4.5 runs in the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 —

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

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