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MLB
Final 4–1
Boston Red Sox logo

Boston Red SoxvsNew York Yankees

New York Yankees logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final4–1 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Boston Red Sox 4–1 New York Yankees

6 of 7 AIs leaned New York Yankees — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
New York Yankees 6/7
Correct calls
1/7
Final
4–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% New York Yankees L

The New York Yankees have historically dominated the Red Sox in recent seasons and carry stronger offensive firepower. Boston's pitching dep...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 63% New York Yankees L

The Yankees start Gerrit Cole (seasonally strong surface metrics and a lower ERA than Boston's Jake Bennett) and come in as the better team...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% New York Yankees L

The New York Yankees have a superior record (44-27) compared to the Boston Red Sox (29-41) and have been performing better recently, winning...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% New York Yankees L

Yankees hold historical edge in the rivalry and stronger overall roster construction through 2025. Red Sox home advantage is offset by incon...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Yankees L

Based on historical performance and general team strength as known from my training data up to its cutoff (pre-2026), the New York Yankees o...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Yankees L

The New York Yankees have a historical edge in head-to-head matchups against the Boston Red Sox. Based on my training data, the Yankees gene...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 56% Boston Red Sox W

Analysis based on training data up to 2025-09. The Red Sox typically have a slight home-field advantage, but the Yankees and Red Sox rivalry...

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Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% away_ -1

The Yankees' stronger roster construction and offensive depth suggest they should win by at least one run in a standard matchup. The spread...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Boston Red Sox +1.5 W

Backing the Yankees to win by 2+ is plausible given Gerrit Cole's ceiling, but the runline is tougher because Boston's offense at Fenway and...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees L

The Yankees' superior performance and away record suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. The Red Sox's struggles at home furthe...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% away_ -1.5

Yankees projected as slight favorites on the run line given superior depth. Red Sox bullpen vulnerabilities often allow late leads to slip....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% New York Yankees -1.5 L

Building on the H2H prediction, if the Yankees are the stronger team overall, they are more likely to secure a win by a margin greater than...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% New York Yankees

Given the Yankees' historical edge and perceived slight advantage in recent performance, I'm predicting they will cover a standard spread. T...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% New York Yankees L

The spread of 1.5 runs is tight. In a close rivalry game, either team could win by 2 or more. No strong edge, slight lean to the team with t...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% over_8.5

Both the Red Sox and Yankees have historically high-powered offenses with capable bullpens. The rivalry fixture in late June typically favor...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% over L

Fenway Park is hitter-friendly and while Gerrit Cole suppresses runs, Jake Bennett's profile and Boston's home ballpark increase the chance...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, with the Yankees averaging 5.1 runs per game and the Red Sox averaging 4.0 runs per game. G...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Fenway Park typically inflates run totals with its dimensions. Both lineups feature power hitters that produce higher-scoring affairs in sum...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5 L

Historically, games between the Red Sox and Yankees tend to be competitive with potential for significant offense due to strong lineups on b...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

MLB games between these two teams often feature solid offenses and good pitching, leading to a moderate number of runs scored. My training d...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% over W

Historically, games at Fenway Park tend to have higher scoring due to the park factors. Both lineups have power hitters. Without recent form...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% New York Yankees

Early innings often reflect starting pitcher quality and early offensive momentum. The Yankees' consistent offensive approach suggests they...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole has the profile to get through five innings with fewer runs allowed than Jake Bennett; the Yankees' lineup is better against LHP...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees' strong overall performance and away record suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. The Red Sox's home str...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Yankees

Starting pitching matchup favors Yankees through the early innings based on historical starts. Red Sox early offense has been streaky in pas...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees, based on historical roster strength and general team construction, often possess strong starting pitching. This usuall...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% New York Yankees

The Yankees have historically started strong against the Red Sox, especially in early innings. I predict they will have a slight lead or be...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Boston Red Sox

Early innings often favor the home team due to batting last and home-field advantage in the first five. Marginal lean, as starting pitching...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

New York Yankees

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

New York Yankees

63
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

New York Yankees

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Boston Red Sox

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

New York Yankees

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

New York Yankees

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

New York Yankees

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: a7ce075e8efc25f5…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 27 · 17:10 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7038,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T17:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 17:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-24T05:46:20+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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