MLB

Upcoming · in 80h 53m

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees

Kickoff · Sat, Jun 27 · 17:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 24 · 05:46 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief. Open chat →

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    a7ce075e8efc25f5…

Kickoff: Sat, Jun 27 · 17:10 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7038,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-27T17:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 27 Jun 2026 17:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "New York Yankees",
        "home": "Boston Red Sox"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-24T05:46:20+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	First 5 innings ?	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 60-87 -43.6u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 61-78 -31.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 30-28 -13.4u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 291-335 -245.0u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 408-497 -409.9u	55% New York Yankees	58% New York Yankees	54% over_8.5	56% away_ -1
First 5 innings ? 55% New York Yankees Early innings often reflect starting pitcher quality and early offensive momentum. The Yankees' consistent offensive approach suggests they... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 58% New York Yankees The New York Yankees have historically dominated the Red Sox in recent seasons and carry stronger offensive firepower. Boston's pitching dep... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% over_8.5 Both the Red Sox and Yankees have historically high-powered offenses with capable bullpens. The rivalry fixture in late June typically favor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 56% away_ -1 The Yankees' stronger roster construction and offensive depth suggest they should win by at least one run in a standard matchup. The spread... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 24-15 -3.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 201-179 -49.0u	—	—	—	—
First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 340-335 -236.4u	60% New York Yankees	65% New York Yankees	60% over	55% New York Yankees
First 5 innings ? 60% New York Yankees The Yankees' strong overall performance and away record suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. The Red Sox's home str... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Match winner ? 65% New York Yankees The New York Yankees have a superior record (44-27) compared to the Boston Red Sox (29-41) and have been performing better recently, winning... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, with the Yankees averaging 5.1 runs per game and the Red Sox averaging 4.0 runs per game. G... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% New York Yankees The Yankees' superior performance and away record suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. The Red Sox's struggles at home furthe... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini Flagship Openai · 13-9 -4.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 38-34 -4.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 388-401 -229.4u	53% New York Yankees	54% New York Yankees	52% over	51% away_ -1.5
First 5 innings ? 53% New York Yankees Starting pitching matchup favors Yankees through the early innings based on historical starts. Red Sox early offense has been streaky in pas... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 54% New York Yankees Yankees hold historical edge in the rivalry and stronger overall roster construction through 2025. Red Sox home advantage is offset by incon... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Fenway Park typically inflates run totals with its dimensions. Both lineups feature power hitters that produce higher-scoring affairs in sum... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% away_ -1.5 Yankees projected as slight favorites on the run line given superior depth. Red Sox bullpen vulnerabilities often allow late leads to slip.... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 31-37 -8.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 55-94 -58.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 376-424 -344.0u	54% New York Yankees	55% New York Yankees	53% Over 8.5	52% New York Yankees -1.5
First 5 innings ? 54% New York Yankees The New York Yankees, based on historical roster strength and general team construction, often possess strong starting pitching. This usuall... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% New York Yankees Based on historical performance and general team strength as known from my training data up to its cutoff (pre-2026), the New York Yankees o... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 8.5 Historically, games between the Red Sox and Yankees tend to be competitive with potential for significant offense due to strong lineups on b... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% New York Yankees -1.5 Building on the H2H prediction, if the Yankees are the stronger team overall, they are more likely to secure a win by a margin greater than... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 343-461 -337.4u	51% New York Yankees	55% New York Yankees	52% over	53% New York Yankees
First 5 innings ? 51% New York Yankees The Yankees have historically started strong against the Red Sox, especially in early innings. I predict they will have a slight lead or be... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% New York Yankees The New York Yankees have a historical edge in head-to-head matchups against the Boston Red Sox. Based on my training data, the Yankees gene... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over MLB games between these two teams often feature solid offenses and good pitching, leading to a moderate number of runs scored. My training d... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% New York Yankees Given the Yankees' historical edge and perceived slight advantage in recent performance, I'm predicting they will cover a standard spread. T... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 432-479 -273.6u	53% Boston Red Sox	56% Boston Red Sox	62% over	51% New York Yankees
First 5 innings ? 53% Boston Red Sox Early innings often favor the home team due to batting last and home-field advantage in the first five. Marginal lean, as starting pitching... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 56% Boston Red Sox Analysis based on training data up to 2025-09. The Red Sox typically have a slight home-field advantage, but the Yankees and Red Sox rivalry... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 62% over Historically, games at Fenway Park tend to have higher scoring due to the park factors. Both lineups have power hitters. Without recent form... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% New York Yankees The spread of 1.5 runs is tight. In a close rivalry game, either team could win by 2 or more. No strong edge, slight lean to the team with t... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	New York Yankees 5/6	New York Yankees 5/6	over 4/6	New York Yankees 3/6

First 5 innings

Consensus
New York Yankees 5/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 55% New York Yankees

Early innings often reflect starting pitcher quality and early offensive momentum. The Yankees' consistent offensive approach suggests they...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% New York Yankees

The Yankees' strong overall performance and away record suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings. The Red Sox's home str...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 53% New York Yankees

Starting pitching matchup favors Yankees through the early innings based on historical starts. Red Sox early offense has been streaky in pas...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees, based on historical roster strength and general team construction, often possess strong starting pitching. This usuall...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% New York Yankees

The Yankees have historically started strong against the Red Sox, especially in early innings. I predict they will have a slight lead or be...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 53% Boston Red Sox

Early innings often favor the home team due to batting last and home-field advantage in the first five. Marginal lean, as starting pitching...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
New York Yankees 5/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 58% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have historically dominated the Red Sox in recent seasons and carry stronger offensive firepower. Boston's pitching dep...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 65% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have a superior record (44-27) compared to the Boston Red Sox (29-41) and have been performing better recently, winning...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 54% New York Yankees

Yankees hold historical edge in the rivalry and stronger overall roster construction through 2025. Red Sox home advantage is offset by incon...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% New York Yankees

Based on historical performance and general team strength as known from my training data up to its cutoff (pre-2026), the New York Yankees o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have a historical edge in head-to-head matchups against the Boston Red Sox. Based on my training data, the Yankees gene...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 56% Boston Red Sox

Analysis based on training data up to 2025-09. The Red Sox typically have a slight home-field advantage, but the Yankees and Red Sox rivalry...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 54% over_8.5

Both the Red Sox and Yankees have historically high-powered offenses with capable bullpens. The rivalry fixture in late June typically favor...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown the ability to score runs, with the Yankees averaging 5.1 runs per game and the Red Sox averaging 4.0 runs per game. G...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Fenway Park typically inflates run totals with its dimensions. Both lineups feature power hitters that produce higher-scoring affairs in sum...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

Historically, games between the Red Sox and Yankees tend to be competitive with potential for significant offense due to strong lineups on b...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

MLB games between these two teams often feature solid offenses and good pitching, leading to a moderate number of runs scored. My training d...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 62% over

Historically, games at Fenway Park tend to have higher scoring due to the park factors. Both lineups have power hitters. Without recent form...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
New York Yankees 3/6

Claude Opus 4.7 Pro

Claude Opus 4.6 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8 Pro

Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5 56% away_ -1

The Yankees' stronger roster construction and offensive depth suggest they should win by at least one run in a standard matchup. The spread...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

GPT-5 Pro

GPT-5 Mini —

GPT-4o Mini 55% New York Yankees

The Yankees' superior performance and away record suggest they are likely to win by at least one run. The Red Sox's struggles at home furthe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

🔍 researched 4 sources cited

o4-mini Pro

Grok 4.3 Pro

Grok 4 Fast 51% away_ -1.5

Yankees projected as slight favorites on the run line given superior depth. Red Sox bullpen vulnerabilities often allow late leads to slip....

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% New York Yankees -1.5

Building on the H2H prediction, if the Yankees are the stronger team overall, they are more likely to secure a win by a margin greater than...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% New York Yankees

Given the Yankees' historical edge and perceived slight advantage in recent performance, I'm predicting they will cover a standard spread. T...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

DeepSeek V3 51% New York Yankees

The spread of 1.5 runs is tight. In a close rivalry game, either team could win by 2 or more. No strong edge, slight lean to the team with t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Pro on-demand

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Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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