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MLB Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Upcoming · in 86h 58m
Baltimore Orioles logo

Baltimore OriolesvsTampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

Home-field advantage at Camden Yards typically translates to a 1–1.5 run edge. Despite both teams' recent poor form, Baltimore's runline sit...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 70% Baltimore Orioles +1.5

Taking Baltimore on the +1.5 runline (home +1.5) is the conservative/value play here: the starting-pitcher edge and Camden Yards environment...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' superior season record and recent form suggest they are likely to cover a -1 spread. ([baseball-reference.com](https://www.basebal...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Baltimore Orioles

Home team Orioles receive the spread value in this contest given the venue and Rays road performance trends. Form data shows Orioles capable...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Baltimore Orioles +1.5

Despite a slight H2H lean towards the Rays, MLB games are often decided by narrow margins. The Orioles, playing at home, are likely to keep...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Baltimore Orioles

Given the slight edge in rest for the Orioles and the hitter-friendly nature of their home park, they are favored to cover a small spread. W...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Baltimore Orioles -1

Baltimore's home advantage and recent offensive output suggest they could win by multiple runs. However, the Rays are competitive, and the r...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

Baltimore has scored 22 runs in 5 recent matches (4.4 per game) and Tampa 18 in 5 (3.6 per game), suggesting a combined expected total near...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% under 8.5

Rogers' recent ability to eat innings and limit runs combined with Camden Yards' near-neutral run factor points to a lower-scoring game; Per...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown offensive capabilities this season, with the Rays averaging 4.5 runs per game and the Orioles averaging 4.6 runs per g...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both teams have conceded heavily in recent games with combined scoring averages above 7.5 runs per contest. Camden Yards tends to play neutr...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Both teams have conceded a significant number of runs in their last five games, suggesting a potential for higher scoring. Camden Yards is g...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Oriole Park at Camden Yards typically plays as a hitter-friendly venue. Combined with the unknown starting pitchers and the fact that both t...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Over 2.5

Both teams have favorable conditions for scoring at Camden Yards, a hitter-friendly park. The Orioles have scored 22 runs in their last five...

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Match winner

Consensus
Baltimore Orioles 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore is playing at home with significantly better rest (30 days vs 44 for Tampa suggests recent activity favors the Rays, but the home-...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Baltimore Orioles

The probable-starter matchup (Trevor Rogers vs. Freddy Peralta) favors Baltimore on form: Rogers has been delivering multiple quality starts...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have a superior season record (63-44) compared to the Baltimore Orioles (53-56). Additionally, the Rays have been perform...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Baltimore Orioles

Orioles have home field at Camden Yards and Rays recent form shows inconsistency with only 2 wins in last 5. Training data through 2025 indi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Tampa Bay Rays

Based on the provided recent form, the Tampa Bay Rays show a slightly better record (2W-3L) compared to the Baltimore Orioles (1W-4L). While...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Baltimore Orioles

While both teams have had poor recent form, the Baltimore Orioles have a rest advantage with 30 days between games compared to the Tampa Bay...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Baltimore Orioles

Using training data through 2025-09, the Orioles have a stronger lineup and home-field advantage at Camden Yards. Although both teams are in...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Tampa Bay Rays 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals typically run lower than full-game totals due to the small sample and reduced offensive momentum early in the game....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' strong season performance and recent form suggest they may lead after the first five innings. ([baseball-reference.com](https://ww...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Baltimore Orioles

First five innings often mirror full game trends with home starter advantage at Camden Yards. Rays have shown vulnerability early in games b...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have historically maintained strong starting pitching and early-game performance in general. Without specific starting pi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

The early innings often see games influenced by starting pitcher matchups. Without knowing the starters, and considering the general trend o...

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4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 35% Away Draw Home

Both starting pitchers are likely to keep the game close in the early innings, making a draw plausible. The Orioles have a slight edge at ho...

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First five innings totals 3.5

Consensus
under 3.5 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under 3.5

Rogers tends to keep runs low through the bulk of early frames and Peralta's inconsistency has often shown as shorter middle innings rather...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Tampa Bay Rays

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Baltimore Orioles

58
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Baltimore Orioles

57
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Baltimore Orioles

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Baltimore Orioles

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Baltimore Orioles

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Tampa Bay Rays

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1058–806 · 57%
-609.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 694–590 · 54%
-369.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1132–1113 · 50%
-927.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 743–746 · 50%
-504.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1109–1141 · 49%
-832.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 878–934 · 48%
-732.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: e2c13baa66574c55…
Kickoff
Fri, Aug 21 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 27479,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Oriole Park at Camden Yards",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-21T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 21 Aug 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Tampa Bay Rays",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWLLL",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 21
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 44,
            "home": 30
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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