Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Major League Baseball · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Upcoming · in 79h 55m
Baltimore Orioles logo

Baltimore OriolesvsPhiladelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 8.5

Over the last 5 matches, combined scoring is low: Orioles 22 runs in 5 games (4.4 per game), Phillies 18 runs in 5 games (3.6 per game). Bal...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% over

Even with Wheeler's strong form (which suppresses runs early), Bradish has a tendency toward some medium-run outings and both teams have sho...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, and the weather conditions are favorable for scoring, suggesting a higher likelihood...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Training data through 2025-09 indicates Camden Yards favors higher run totals in summer. Both teams show elevated conceded runs in recent fo...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with Phillies' games averaging 10.2 combined runs and Orioles' games averaging...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

The combined recent form of both teams suggests a tendency for higher scoring games, with both offenses showing some capability and defenses...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have been scoring moderately, but Camden Yards is a hitter-friendly park. The starters are unknown but likely average; bullpens m...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Philadelphia Phillies -1.5

Philadelphia's 24-day rest advantage is a substantial edge in early August, when fatigue compounds. Baltimore's recent form (1W-4L, poor run...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Baltimore Orioles +1.5

Wheeler raises Philadelphia's moneyline chances, but covering a -1.5 runline is harder because Bradish and the Orioles at home can produce e...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the Phillies' slight edge in overall performance and road games, they are expected to cover the -1 spread against the Orioles.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Philadelphia Phillies

Training data through 2025-09 shows Phillies cover spreads more reliably on the road. Orioles poor recent form at home supports this lean. G...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

Given the slight lean towards the Baltimore Orioles for the moneyline, primarily due to their better recent run differential and home advant...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Philadelphia Phillies

Given the slight edge in form and offensive potential for the Phillies, they are marginally favored to cover a -1.5 run line. While the Orio...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Baltimore Orioles -1.5

The Orioles are favored but not by a large margin; covering -1.5 requires winning by 2 runs, which is uncertain. I give slight edge to Phill...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 4.5

Early innings typically reflect starting-pitcher effectiveness and cold bats in August. Both Baltimore and Philadelphia have shown weak offe...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Philadelphia Phillies

First-five innings favor the starter with the clearer strike-throwing, swing-miss profile — Wheeler has been delivering multiple quality ear...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies' starting lineup and recent performance suggest they will have a slight advantage in the first five innings over the Orioles.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Philadelphia Phillies

Training data through 2025-09 shows Phillies strong early inning offense. Home team struggles in first five per recent results. Game date in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Baltimore Orioles

The First Five Innings market heavily depends on the starting pitchers, which are unknown for this 2026 game. However, based on the overall...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have shown a tendency to start games stronger than the Orioles recently, and their offensive consistency could give them an ear...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Baltimore Orioles

First five innings often depend on starting pitchers. Without specific pitcher data, home advantage and recent form slightly favor Orioles,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Philadelphia Phillies 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies arrive with 24 rest days versus Baltimore's 10, a substantial advantage in August fatigue. Despite Philadelphia's poor recent r...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Philadelphia Phillies

Zack Wheeler has been pitching at an elite level in July with multiple 6–7+ inning, low-run starts and a sub-3.00 season ERA, while Bradish...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have a slightly better overall record and have been more consistent on the road, which gives them a slight edge ov...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Philadelphia Phillies

Training data through 2025-09 shows Phillies maintain stronger overall roster depth than Orioles. Orioles recent form of LLLLW indicates ong...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Baltimore Orioles

Based on the provided team context, the Baltimore Orioles have shown a better run differential (-6) in their last five games compared to the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies have a slightly better recent form and a stronger overall season record compared to the Baltimore Orioles. While t...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have a strong home record and the Phillies are on a long road trip with 24 rest days, which may disrupt timing. However, the sta...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Philadelphia Phillies

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Philadelphia Phillies

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Baltimore Orioles

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Philadelphia Phillies

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Baltimore Orioles

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Philadelphia Phillies

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: d26ec468bd3cb473…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 2 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 18508,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Oriole Park at Camden Yards",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-02T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 02 Aug 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 33
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLW",
            "record": "1W-0D-4L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 28
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 24,
            "home": 10
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →