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MLB
Final 6–1
Baltimore Orioles logo

Baltimore OriolesvsChicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final6–1 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Baltimore Orioles 6–1 Chicago White Sox

All 7 AIs backed Chicago White Sox — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Chicago White Sox 7/7
Correct calls
0/7
Final
6–1

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Chicago White Sox 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Chicago White Sox L

The White Sox arrive in strong recent form (4W-1L over last 5) with a +23 run differential, while the Orioles are struggling at 2W-3L with a...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Chicago White Sox L

Chicago enters this matchup with stronger recent form and a heavy offensive run-rate in the last five games while the Orioles have stumbled;...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago White Sox L

The Chicago White Sox have a slightly better overall record and have been more successful on the road this season. Their recent form, with f...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Chicago White Sox L

White Sox enter with superior recent form (4-1 record, +23 run differential) compared to Orioles' 2-3 mark. Both clubs have identical 3 days...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Chicago White Sox L

Based on my training data up to 2025-09 and the provided context, the Chicago White Sox are in significantly better recent form, holding a 4...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Chicago White Sox L

The White Sox have significantly better recent form, winning 3 of their last 5 games compared to the Orioles' 1 win. Their offense has been...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Chicago White Sox L

Based on my training data up to mid-2025, the White Sox (away) have superior recent form (4-1 last 5) compared to the Orioles (2-3). The Ori...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Over 8.5 L

The White Sox averaged 7.0 runs per game over their last five matches (35 runs in 5 games), while the Orioles averaged 3.8 (19 runs in 5 gam...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over

Camden Yards in warm weather with a light/moderate breeze often plays comfortably for hitters; FantasyPros and gameday aggregators show high...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have been scoring an average of 4.6 runs per game this season, indicating a tendency towards higher-scoring games. The Orioles' p...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% over

Chicago's recent scoring surge (7 runs per game) should push the total higher despite Orioles' home park suppressing runs. Both bullpens are...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5 L

Considering the Chicago White Sox's robust offensive performance, averaging 7 runs per game over their last five, they are likely to contrib...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

The White Sox offense has been on fire, scoring an average of 6.6 runs over their last 5 games. The Orioles' pitching has been less consiste...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% over

Both teams have shown offensive production: White Sox scored 35 runs in 5 games (7/game), Orioles 19 (3.8/game). No starting pitcher or weat...

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Spread

Consensus
Chicago White Sox 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Chicago White Sox -1.5 L

The White Sox's superior recent run differential (+23 vs +1) and win-loss record (4-1 vs 2-3) support a modest road favorite position. A -1....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Baltimore Orioles +1.5 W

Given the uncertainty around Baltimore's announced starter (TBD) but acknowledging home-field factors and the possibility that Chicago's pro...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago White Sox L

Given the White Sox's slightly better overall record and recent form, they are more likely to cover a -1 spread. Their away performance has...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Chicago White Sox

Away team run differential advantage offsets home-field edge, making the spread a near coin-flip. Orioles have allowed 18 runs in last 5 whi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Chicago White Sox -1.5 L

The White Sox's dominant recent form, marked by both strong offense and solid pitching, positions them well to win by more than a single run...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Chicago White Sox L

Given the White Sox's recent offensive surge and the Orioles' struggles, the White Sox are likely to win by more than one run. Their ability...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are stronger based on recent form and run differential (+23 in 5 games vs Orioles +1). Covering the spread typically requires...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Chicago White Sox 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Chicago White Sox

Early-inning outcomes correlate strongly with starter quality and bullpen freshness. The White Sox's recent offensive momentum and Baltimore...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Chicago White Sox

The early-game metric is sensitive to the starting pitchers and Noah Schultz (listed as Chicago's probable starter) has shown strong strikeo...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox's starting pitcher, N. Schultz, has a 5.82 ERA, while the Orioles' starter, T. Rogers, has a 4.99 ERA. This suggests a slight...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Baltimore Orioles

Home starter typically holds slight edge in first five frames before bullpens enter. Orioles' park factors limit early damage from the White...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Chicago White Sox

Without specific starting pitcher information, I rely on the overall team form from my training data through 2025-09 and the provided contex...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have demonstrated a strong ability to start games with momentum, evidenced by their high scoring output in recent matches. Thi...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Chicago White Sox

Without starting pitcher data, first five innings outcomes are hard to predict. However, White Sox recent fast starts (scoring early) and ov...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Chicago White Sox

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Chicago White Sox

62
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Chicago White Sox

58
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Chicago White Sox

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Chicago White Sox

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Chicago White Sox

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Chicago White Sox

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1062–1080 · 50%
-771.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: bb624b0c4ffb340e…
Kickoff
Wed, Jul 1 · 16:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 8072,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-01T16:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 16:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Chicago White Sox",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWLWW",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 35,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 12
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 19,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 18
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 3
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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