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MLB
Final 2–7
Atlanta Braves logo

Atlanta BravesvsSan Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final2–7 Locked 34picks · 20 graded
Recap Consensus missed

Atlanta Braves 2–7 San Francisco Giants

All 7 AIs backed Atlanta Braves — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Atlanta Braves 7/7
Correct calls
0/7
Final
2–7

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves -1.5 6/10
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

The Braves' home-field advantage and historically stronger roster suggest a modest edge. A -1.5 spread implies a close game with slight Brav...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 80% Atlanta Braves L

The Braves' strong home performance and the Giants' struggles on the road suggest the Braves are likely to win by at least one run. ([thesco...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Atlanta Braves

Atlanta's home field advantage and bullpen stability support a small run-line edge. Giants have shown inconsistency away from Oracle Park in...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

Given the Atlanta Braves' historical strength and their typical ability to secure multi-run victories, taking them on the -1.5 run line is a...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Atlanta Braves L

Given the slight favor towards the Atlanta Braves in head-to-head matchups, they are also more likely to cover a small spread like -1.5. The...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 41% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

Braves are favored to win, but covering the run line is tougher. Giants' pitching staff can limit damage, making a one-run victory plausible...

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Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Atlanta Braves L

The Braves are a stronger franchise with deeper offensive depth and superior pitching depth historically. Playing at home in early June give...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 85% Atlanta Braves L

The Atlanta Braves have a strong home record of 22-11, while the San Francisco Giants have a 15-23 away record. Additionally, Adrian Houser...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Atlanta Braves L

Braves have historically been a stronger home team with better pitching depth. Giants road performance tends to lag in interleague or cross-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Atlanta Braves L

Based on historical performance and general team strengths from my training data (cutoff prior to June 2026), the Atlanta Braves typically p...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Atlanta Braves L

Based on general team strengths and historical performance trends from my training data, the Atlanta Braves are typically a stronger team th...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% Atlanta Braves L

The Braves have strong home-field advantage and a deeper lineup, while the Giants have been inconsistent on the road. Training data up to 20...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 4/10
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5

June MLB games typically feature warm weather and offensive momentum. Both the Braves and Giants have produced offensive firepower historica...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 75% over W

The Braves have a strong offense, averaging 5.3 runs per game, while the Giants average 3.9 runs per game. Given the Braves' offensive stren...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Typical Braves-Giants games trend slightly above average run totals due to offensive lineups. Training data through 2023 indicates modest ov...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5 W

Assuming a totals line of 8.5, my training data suggests that games involving the Atlanta Braves, especially at home, often lean towards hig...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Baseball games can be high-scoring depending on the pitchers and offenses involved. Without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive t...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 53% Over 8.5

Both teams have above-average offenses, and current weather forecasts indicate warm conditions favorable to hitting. However, starting pitch...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Atlanta Braves

Early-game advantage typically favors the home team with fresh lineup momentum. Braves' top-of-lineup hitters and first-inning tendencies gi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 70% Atlanta Braves

The Braves' strong home performance and the Giants' struggles on the road suggest the Braves are likely to lead after the first five innings...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Atlanta Braves

Braves starters often control early innings at home. Training data through 2023 shows slight home lean in first-five outcomes for Atlanta ho...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves typically feature strong starting pitching and an aggressive offensive approach from the outset, allowing them to establi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves often start games strong, with their top pitchers capable of shutting down opponents early and their offense able to scor...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Atlanta Braves

Braves' starting pitcher (likely ace) historically dominates early innings, while Giants' offense is slower to warm up. Atlanta's bullpen is...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Atlanta Braves

85
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Atlanta Braves

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Atlanta Braves

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Atlanta Braves

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Atlanta Braves

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Atlanta Braves

58
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Atlanta Braves

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 3efeba379c0da3d3…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 17 · 18:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2829,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "home": "Atlanta Braves"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T08:51:16+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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