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MLB
Upcoming · in 80h 21m
Atlanta Braves logo

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 17:35 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 18 · 05:47 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0e04902a0110cf33…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 17:35 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4939,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T17:35:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 17:35:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Milwaukee Brewers",
        "home": "Atlanta Braves"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T05:47:11+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Atlanta Braves

As of my training cutoff (September 2025), the Braves have historically been the stronger franchise with more consistent postseason success...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Atlanta Braves

Atlanta is the stronger club at home with a deeper lineup and the matchup lists G. Holmes (ATL) vs. Brandon Woodruff (MIL) as probables; Hol...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Milwaukee Brewers have struggled on the road....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves hold a stronger overall roster profile from training data through 2025-09. Home field in this matchup favors the Braves sligh...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Atlanta Braves

Based on my training data up to mid-2024, the Atlanta Braves generally possess a stronger overall roster and typically perform well at home....

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves are a stronger team based on historical performance and typical team strengths in my training data. The Milwaukee Brewers, wh...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers have had a stronger season overall and a better recent record, while the Atlanta Braves have struggled with consistenc...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Both the Braves and Brewers field competitive rosters with solid offensive production. Typical MLB totals in June for mid-strength teams hov...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% over

Both teams have run-producing potential and the probable starters (G. Holmes for ATL and B. Woodruff for MIL) have ERAs that suggest moderat...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and recent games have seen high-scoring outcomes. The Braves' home games have averaged over 2.5 runs, sugge...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Scoring trends in Braves home games leaned slightly higher through late 2025 data. Brewers offense showed moderate run production away from...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Under

Historically, both the Braves and Brewers often feature strong pitching, which can lead to lower-scoring games. While both offenses are capa...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

Both teams have historically shown the capacity for high-scoring games, and typical MLB games tend to lean towards a moderate number of runs...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have shown solid offensive production recently, and the starting pitchers have mediocre ERAs. The venue likely favors hitters, an...

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Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Atlanta Braves -1.5

Home-field advantage and the Braves' historical strength suggest a marginal edge, translating to roughly a one-run expectation at home. The...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% Atlanta Braves -1.5

Given the Braves' home advantage and stronger lineup, a win by two or more runs is slightly more likely than a one-run/losing result, but no...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Atlanta Braves

The Braves' home advantage and recent form suggest they will win by at least one run. Their offense has been potent, and the Brewers have st...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Atlanta Braves

Braves home run-line performance was positive in training data through 2025-09. Milwaukee struggled to cover on the road against stronger NL...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Atlanta Braves -1.5

Given the Braves' historical offensive power and overall team strength, especially at home, they have a good chance of winning by more than...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Atlanta Braves

Given the assessment that the Braves are the stronger team, they are more likely to cover a modest spread. A -1.5 spread suggests they are f...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Milwaukee Brewers -1.5

The spread is tight as the Brewers are likely to win but could do so by a narrow margin. Their recent victories have often been by one run,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals in MLB typically run lower than full-game totals due to pitchers' early-game command and teams' slower offensive st...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Atlanta Braves

First-five innings favor the Braves because they bat second at home and their opening lineup tends to produce early runs; G. Holmes is a mid...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been strong in the first five innings at home, often taking early leads. Their starting pitchers have been effective in the...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Atlanta Braves

Early-game starting pitching favored Atlanta in analogous 2025 matchups. Brewers showed slower starts on the road. First-five moneyline lean...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves typically feature strong starting pitching and an offense capable of scoring early runs. This often gives them an edge in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers' starting pitcher has a stronger early-game ERA, and the team tends to score in the first few innings. The Braves' pitcher strug...

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First five innings 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Early game totals are often driven by starting pitching and early offensive momentum. Without specific starting pitcher data or lineup insig...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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