Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers

Kickoff · Fri, Jun 19 · 23:15 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 16 · 06:08 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    c100d74b5ec507a3…

Sport: Fri, Jun 19 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3795,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-19T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 19 Jun 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Milwaukee Brewers",
        "home": "Atlanta Braves"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:06:53+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -30.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 20-47 -27.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 201-251 -196.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 232-276 -221.0u	56% Atlanta Braves	54% Over	52% Atlanta Braves -1.5	53% Under 4.5
Match winner ? 56% Atlanta Braves The Braves have been a more consistently strong team in recent MLB seasons with a solid rotation and lineup depth. The Brewers are competiti... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over Atlanta and Milwaukee both feature offensively capable lineups and have historically produced competitive, run-scoring contests. Modern MLB... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5 Atlanta at home with a slight talent edge historically, but the 1.5-run spread is tight and reflects competitive parity. Without current rot... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Under 4.5 Early-inning scoring in baseball is typically lower than full-game totals as batters adjust to starting pitchers and bullpen usage has not y... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 51-65 -9.6u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 52-117 -86.0u	65% Atlanta Braves	60% over	55% Atlanta Braves	60% Atlanta Braves
Match winner ? 65% Atlanta Braves The Atlanta Braves have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Milwaukee Brewers have struggled on the road.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have potent offenses and have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The Braves' home games have averaged over 2.5 runs, a... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 55% Atlanta Braves The Braves have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs at home, suggesting they can cover the -1 spread. The Brewers have struggled to... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited First 5 innings ? 60% Atlanta Braves The Braves have been strong in the first five innings at home, often taking early leads. The Brewers have been slow starters on the road, ma... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 145-303 -211.3u	54% Atlanta Braves	51% over	52% Atlanta Braves	53% Atlanta Braves
Match winner ? 54% Atlanta Braves Atlanta typically fields a stronger roster than Milwaukee in recent seasons per historical patterns. Training data through 2025-09 shows Bra... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over MLB averages have trended slightly higher scoring in summer months. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Braves games often exceed 8.5 ru... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Atlanta Braves Braves home advantage supports a small run-line edge based on past seasons. Training data through 2025-09 shows consistent home favorites co... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Atlanta Braves Early game edges often mirror full game home advantages in MLB data. Training data through 2025-09 favors the Braves in first-five segments... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 14-46 -31.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 176-261 -223.1u	56% Atlanta Braves	52% Over 8.5	51% Atlanta Braves -1.5	53% Atlanta Braves
Match winner ? 56% Atlanta Braves Based on my training data up to early 2025, the Atlanta Braves consistently exhibit a strong offensive lineup and solid pitching rotation, m... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Given the Atlanta Braves' historical offensive prowess and the Milwaukee Brewers' ability to put up runs, a combined score exceeding 8.5 run... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Atlanta Braves -1.5 Following the H2H prediction, if the Atlanta Braves win, they often do so by a comfortable margin, especially when playing at home. Their po... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Atlanta Braves The first five innings often highlight starting pitching and early offensive execution. The Atlanta Braves typically boast strong starting r... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 84-212 -157.8u	55% Atlanta Braves	52% over	51% Milwaukee Brewers	53% Milwaukee Brewers
Match winner ? 55% Atlanta Braves Based on training data, the Atlanta Braves have historically been a strong team with a good record against various opponents. Without curren... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Baseball games, especially between potentially competitive teams, tend to have a moderate number of runs scored. This prediction is based on... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Milwaukee Brewers Given the lack of specific information and the slight edge given to the away team (Milwaukee Brewers), this prediction assumes a close game... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Milwaukee Brewers The first five innings often reflect the initial pitching matchups and early offensive momentum. Leaning towards the Brewers slightly in thi... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 201-294 -242.4u	55% Atlanta Braves	52% over	30% home -1.5	50% Atlanta Braves
Match winner ? 55% Atlanta Braves Based on training data through 2025, the Braves have a strong home record and a deeper lineup, but the Brewers have been competitive. Home f... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% over Both teams have potent offenses, and Truist Park is neutral to slightly hitter-friendly. Expect a moderate scoring game, but uncertainty on... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 30% home -1.5 Braves are favored but not by enough to cover a 1.5-run spread with high confidence. Brewers are usually competitive, so the away team plus... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 50% Atlanta Braves Bullpen reliability is unknown, but Braves have slight advantage in starting rotation depth. First 5 innings often favor the home team due t... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Atlanta Braves 6/6	over 4/6	Atlanta Braves 2/6	Atlanta Braves 4/6

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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