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MLB
Final 3–2
Atlanta Braves logo

Atlanta BravesvsMilwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final3–2 Locked 24picks · 12 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Atlanta Braves 3–2 Milwaukee Brewers

All 6 AIs backed Atlanta Braves — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Atlanta Braves 6/6
Correct calls
6/6
Final
3–2

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves -1.5 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

Atlanta at home with a slight talent edge historically, but the 1.5-run spread is tight and reflects competitive parity. Without current rot...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs at home, suggesting they can cover the -1 spread. The Brewers have struggled to...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Atlanta Braves

Braves home advantage supports a small run-line edge based on past seasons. Training data through 2025-09 shows consistent home favorites co...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

Following the H2H prediction, if the Atlanta Braves win, they often do so by a comfortable margin, especially when playing at home. Their po...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Milwaukee Brewers

Given the lack of specific information and the slight edge given to the away team (Milwaukee Brewers), this prediction assumes a close game...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Atlanta Braves -1.5 L

Braves are favored but not by enough to cover a 1.5-run spread with high confidence. Brewers are usually competitive, so the away team plus...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over L

Atlanta and Milwaukee both feature offensively capable lineups and have historically produced competitive, run-scoring contests. Modern MLB...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have potent offenses and have been involved in high-scoring games recently. The Braves' home games have averaged over 2.5 runs, a...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

MLB averages have trended slightly higher scoring in summer months. Training data through 2025-09 indicates Braves games often exceed 8.5 ru...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5 L

Given the Atlanta Braves' historical offensive prowess and the Milwaukee Brewers' ability to put up runs, a combined score exceeding 8.5 run...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Baseball games, especially between potentially competitive teams, tend to have a moderate number of runs scored. This prediction is based on...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% over

Both teams have potent offenses, and Truist Park is neutral to slightly hitter-friendly. Expect a moderate scoring game, but uncertainty on...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Under 4.5

Early-inning scoring in baseball is typically lower than full-game totals as batters adjust to starting pitchers and bullpen usage has not y...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Atlanta Braves

The Braves have been strong in the first five innings at home, often taking early leads. The Brewers have been slow starters on the road, ma...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Atlanta Braves

Early game edges often mirror full game home advantages in MLB data. Training data through 2025-09 favors the Braves in first-five segments...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Atlanta Braves

The first five innings often highlight starting pitching and early offensive execution. The Atlanta Braves typically boast strong starting r...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Milwaukee Brewers

The first five innings often reflect the initial pitching matchups and early offensive momentum. Leaning towards the Brewers slightly in thi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Atlanta Braves

Bullpen reliability is unknown, but Braves have slight advantage in starting rotation depth. First 5 innings often favor the home team due t...

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Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 6/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Atlanta Braves W

The Braves have been a more consistently strong team in recent MLB seasons with a solid rotation and lineup depth. The Brewers are competiti...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Atlanta Braves W

The Atlanta Braves have a strong home record and have been performing well recently, while the Milwaukee Brewers have struggled on the road....

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Atlanta Braves W

Atlanta typically fields a stronger roster than Milwaukee in recent seasons per historical patterns. Training data through 2025-09 shows Bra...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 56% Atlanta Braves W

Based on my training data up to early 2025, the Atlanta Braves consistently exhibit a strong offensive lineup and solid pitching rotation, m...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Atlanta Braves W

Based on training data, the Atlanta Braves have historically been a strong team with a good record against various opponents. Without curren...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Atlanta Braves W

Based on training data through 2025, the Braves have a strong home record and a deeper lineup, but the Brewers have been competitive. Home f...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Atlanta Braves

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Atlanta Braves

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Atlanta Braves

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Atlanta Braves

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Atlanta Braves

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Atlanta Braves

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c100d74b5ec507a3…
Kickoff
Fri, Jun 19 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 3795,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-19T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 19 Jun 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Milwaukee Brewers",
        "home": "Atlanta Braves"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:06:53+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 3 sources

    3 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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