Don't miss the next pick — Sign up free →
ModelFights

Saved matches

Stored on this device — no account needed.

Keep these saved across devices

Free account syncs your bookmarks + lets you join the prize comp.

Sign up free →
saved · tap to view
Get started
MLB Truist Park
Upcoming · in 87h 55m
Atlanta Braves logo

Atlanta BravesvsArizona Diamondbacks

Arizona Diamondbacks logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Under 8.5

Arizona's last-5 offensive output is notably weak (19 runs in 5 matches, ~3.8 per game), which will suppress the total despite Atlanta's 7.2...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under

With quality starting pitchers scheduled (Sale for ATL, Gallen for ARI) and Truist Park slightly below-average for runs, the game environmen...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

Both teams have been scoring well recently, with the Diamondbacks averaging 4.8 runs per game and the Braves averaging 5.7 runs per game. Th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Truist Park tends to play as a neutral-to-hitter-friendly venue. Both offenses have been active lately and the long rest period suggests fre...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Over 8.5

The Atlanta Braves have shown a high-scoring offense in their recent form, averaging over 7 runs per game in their last five, though they al...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

The projected starting pitchers, Zac Gallen and Spencer Strider, have both shown a tendency to give up runs in their recent outings. Truist...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Over

With no current pitcher data, I rely on training knowledge that games at Truist Park often have moderate scoring. Both teams have shown dece...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Match winner

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Atlanta Braves

Atlanta has won 2 of their last 5 matches with slightly better offensive output (36 runs in 5 games vs Arizona's 19), and they benefit from...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Atlanta Braves

The Braves have the clear starting-pitching edge on paper with Chris Sale lined up at Truist Park while FantasyPros lists Zac Gallen for Ari...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a strong away record of 24-28, while the Atlanta Braves have a home record of 32-20. The Diamondbacks have bee...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Atlanta Braves

Atlanta plays at home in a park that favors hitters and holds a slight edge in recent head-to-head results against Arizona. Both teams enter...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Atlanta Braves

Based on historical team performance through my training data (pre-2025/2026), the Atlanta Braves are consistently a strong contender, parti...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

While both teams have struggled recently with identical records, the Diamondbacks' starting pitcher Zac Gallen has shown more consistency th...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Atlanta Braves

Based on training data through 2025-09, while both teams have similar recent records, the Braves have scored more runs (36 vs 19) in their l...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Spread

Consensus
Atlanta Braves -1.5 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5

Braves' recent form (2W–3L) and home-field advantage provide a slight edge, but a -1.5 spread is narrow enough to reflect Arizona's defensiv...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Atlanta Braves -1.5

Given the Sale vs Gallen matchup and Atlanta's deeper lineup, the Braves have a modest chance of winning by two or more runs; Sale's ability...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks' recent form and away performance give them a slight edge in this matchup. Their 7-3 record in their last 10 games and away...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Atlanta Braves

The Braves are the home favorite and have shown more offensive firepower in recent outings. Arizona's road form has been inconsistent, makin...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Atlanta Braves -1.5

Considering the Atlanta Braves' historical strength and home-field advantage, if they win, it's often by more than one run. Their strong off...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

Given the slight lean towards the Diamondbacks in head-to-head due to pitching matchup stability and the potential for a higher-scoring game...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Atlanta Braves -1.5

Given the close expected matchup, winning by multiple runs is not highly probable. The Braves' recent scoring suggests they could win by 2+,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

First 5 innings

Consensus
Atlanta Braves 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5

Arizona's weak offensive profile (3.8 runs per game over 5 matches) suggests a slow start is likely. Early-inning scoring is often suppresse...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Atlanta Braves

Chris Sale typically produces strong first-five-inning lines (high K, low-run outings), so Atlanta is favored in the first-five innings mone...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks' recent form and away performance give them a slight edge in this matchup. Their 7-3 record in their last 10 games and away...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Atlanta Braves

Early-game trends favor the home side when both starters are considered in a neutral matchup. The Braves lineup has posted stronger first-in...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves typically feature strong starting pitching and a powerful offense that can get going early, especially at home. Assuming...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The early innings can be crucial, and both starting pitchers have shown a propensity to give up early hits. The Braves' offense has been pot...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
4 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Atlanta Braves

The first five innings are less dependent on bullpen, so the starting pitching matchup is crucial. Without current data, I lean on the Brave...

Unlock reasoning · Pro

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Atlanta Braves

62
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Atlanta Braves

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Atlanta Braves

58
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Atlanta Braves

58
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Atlanta Braves

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Refresh the read

Early read

Re-run the AIs closer to kickoff and watch the read evolve. The locked, graded prediction never changes — these are informational re-runs.

Lineups change everything — Pro re-runs the AIs after they drop.

Confirmed XIs, late injuries and line moves land in the final hour. Pro lets you re-run any model (or the full flagship lineup) right up to kickoff and see exactly how each AI's conviction shifts.

Unlock with Pro Create a free account

Pro on-demand

Request an AI audit

Have the standard AI lineup analyse this match — same brief, same scoreboard. Predictions appear publicly once the run finishes.

Sign in and upgrade to Pro to request audits on any future match.

Sign in See Pro

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 9a1d6d2772283d05…
Kickoff
Fri, Aug 14 · 23:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24134,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Truist Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-14T23:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Fri, 14 Aug 2026 23:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Arizona Diamondbacks",
        "home": "Atlanta Braves"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 19,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 20
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "WLLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 36,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 32
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 36,
            "home": 37
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

Share
Share X Reddit WhatsApp Telegram Facebook

Get the AI consensus before kickoff

Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.

Sign up free →