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MLB Sutter Health Park
Upcoming · in 84h 59m
Athletics logo

AthleticsvsTexas Rangers

Texas Rangers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Under 4.5

Early-inning totals are typically lower than full-game; Oakland's recent offensive drought (3.6 RPG) and Texas's disciplined pitching staff...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Texas Rangers

Early-game advantage should favor the Rangers: Gore has shown the ability to generate early strikeouts and has two recent quality starts, wh...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers

The Rangers are expected to have a slight edge in the first five innings based on their overall performance and the Athletics' recent injury...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Texas Rangers

Starting pitcher edge and lineup quality favor Texas early. Athletics have struggled to score in opening frames during losing streak. Traini...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 64% Texas Rangers F5

The Rangers' stronger overall team and offensive form should enable them to establish an early lead, especially against an Athletics team th...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' offense has a better track record and is expected to perform better early in the game. The Athletics' recent offensive struggle...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Texas Rangers

In the first five innings, the starting pitchers are the main influence. Without current lineup and pitcher data, I rely on historical stren...

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Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers enter with superior recent form (2-3 over last 5 vs Oakland 0-5), better run differential (+8 vs -22), and momentum. Oakland i...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Texas Rangers

Probable starters favor Texas: MacKenzie Gore has shown improving form in August and significantly better strikeout profile versus Jacob Lop...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have a slightly better overall record and have shown more consistent performance in recent games compared to the Athletics...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Texas Rangers

Rangers enter with superior recent results compared to Athletics' five straight losses. Texas bullpen depth and experience give them the edg...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Texas Rangers

The Athletics' recent form is extremely poor, losing all five of their last games and conceding an average of 8 runs per game. The Texas Ran...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have a significantly better recent form (2W-3L) compared to the Athletics (0W-5L). Without current starting pitcher inform...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Texas Rangers

Training data through 2025-09 indicates the Rangers have generally outperformed the Athletics in recent seasons. The Athletics are in a seve...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

Oakland's offensive collapse (3.6 runs/game average over last 5) and Texas Rangers' solid pitching (5.8 runs conceded/game) point to a low-s...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 66% over

Sutter Health Park has been running above-average for runs and homers since the A's relocated there, which pushes totals up. Jacob Lopez's M...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, and with the game being played in a neutral venue, the total runs are expected to be...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Athletics pitching staff has allowed 40 runs in last 5 games. Sutter Health Park plays neutral to slightly hitter-friendly in August. Traini...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 9.5

The Athletics have conceded an alarming average of 8 runs per game over their last five matches, indicating severe pitching struggles. The R...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% over

The Athletics have conceded a high number of runs (40 in their last 5 games). While their offense is also weak, the Rangers' offense is gene...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Over 8.5

Both teams have high recent scoring and conceding rates: the Rangers have scored 22 and conceded 29 in their last 5, while the Athletics hav...

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Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Texas Rangers -1.5

Texas's superior form and Oakland's recent collapse support a Rangers win by at least 2 runs. Oakland's historically poor recent output (18...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Texas Rangers

The Rangers are the cleaner team on paper and are starting Gore, who has better upside to limit runs; that gives a modest chance Texas cover...

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🔍 researched 8 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Texas Rangers

Given the Rangers' slight advantage in overall performance and the Athletics' recent injury concerns, the Rangers are expected to cover the...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Texas Rangers

Rangers have better overall roster talent and recent results. Road teams in this matchup historically cover the run line more often. Trainin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Texas Rangers -1.5

Given the Athletics' profound struggles, including five straight losses and an average of 8 runs allowed per game, the Rangers are well-posi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Texas Rangers

Given the Athletics' poor recent form and tendency to lose games heavily, the Rangers are expected to cover a moderate spread. The Rangers'...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Texas Rangers -1.5

The Rangers are favored to win outright, and given the Athletics' poor form, they might win by more than one run. However, the margin is unc...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Texas Rangers

68
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Texas Rangers

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Texas Rangers

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Texas Rangers

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Texas Rangers

60
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Texas Rangers

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Texas Rangers

54

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1083–1112 · 49%
-803.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 8d38cd2980b58c4b…
Kickoff
Sun, Aug 16 · 20:05 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24722,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Sutter Health Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-16T20:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 16 Aug 2026 20:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Texas Rangers",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLL",
            "record": "0W-0D-5L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 40
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 38,
            "home": 38
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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