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MLB Sutter Health Park
Upcoming · in 89h 29m
Athletics logo

AthleticsvsTexas Rangers

Texas Rangers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

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Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Texas Rangers 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Texas Rangers

Athletics are in severe form collapse (0-5 in last 5, outscored 18-40) while Rangers show mixed but superior recent record (2-3 in last 5, +...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% Texas Rangers

Texas is the stronger club this month (better overall record and offense) while Oakland has a multi-game losing skid and below-average pitch...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers have shown better recent form compared to the Athletics, who are on a five-game losing streak. Additionally, the Rangers'...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 57% Texas Rangers

Rangers enter with a superior recent record and have avoided the prolonged losing streak plaguing the Athletics. Athletics have conceded 40...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Texas Rangers

The Athletics are in extremely poor recent form, losing all five of their last games and conceding a high number of runs. The Texas Rangers,...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers are the clear favorites due to the Athletics' abysmal recent form, having lost their last five games and struggling offens...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Texas Rangers

Training data through 2025-09: Rangers have a stronger roster and better recent form (2W-0D-3L vs 0W-0D-5L for Athletics). Despite playing a...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Under 8.5

Despite Rangers' slightly better form, both teams' last-5 output is relatively modest: Athletics 18 runs (3.6 per game), Rangers 22 runs (4....

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% over

Sutter Health Park has been one of the more hitter-friendly parks and recent data shows wind/temperature can boost run environment there; Au...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over

The wind forecast indicates conditions that could lead to more runs, potentially pushing the total runs over 9.5. Both teams have shown inco...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% over

Athletics pitching has allowed 8 runs per game recently while Rangers offense has scored steadily. High run totals expected due to poor home...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Over 8.5

The Athletics have conceded an average of 8 runs per game in their last five outings, indicating significant pitching struggles. While the R...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% under

The Athletics have struggled to score runs, averaging only 3.6 runs in their last 10 games. Combined with the Rangers' inconsistent offense,...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% over

Training data through 2025-09: Both teams have struggled pitching recently, with the Athletics conceding 40 runs in their last 5 games (8 pe...

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Spread

Consensus
Texas Rangers -1.5 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Texas Rangers -1.5

Rangers' superior form (2-3 vs 0-5) and net run differential (+22-29 scoring = -7 vs Athletics' 18-40 = -22) support a road spread win. Howe...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% Texas Rangers -1.5

Rangers win probability is above 50% but not overwhelmingly so given unknown starting pitchers and Oakland's home-edge narrative; a -1.5 run...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' recent form and favorable weather conditions suggest they are likely to win by at least two runs. However, the Athletics' home...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Texas Rangers -1.5

Texas holds the edge in overall team quality and recent results against struggling opponents. Athletics five-game skid creates a mismatch on...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Texas Rangers -1.5

Considering the Athletics' recent abysmal form, including a 0-5 record and high runs conceded, the stronger Texas Rangers are well-positione...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Texas Rangers

Given the significant disparity in recent performance and offensive capabilities, the Rangers are expected to win by more than 1.5 runs. The...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Texas Rangers -1.5

Training data through 2025-09: The Rangers have a better offense and starting pitching, and the Athletics are in terrible form. However, bas...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Texas Rangers 6/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Texas Rangers

Early-inning play (first five innings) is heavily weighted to starting-pitcher quality and early relief. Rangers' mixed but positive recent...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 58% Texas Rangers

Given the Rangers' stronger offense and Oakland's inconsistent starting options at home, the Rangers are more likely to lead after five inni...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' starting pitcher has demonstrated better early-game performance metrics, and the wind conditions may lead to early scoring oppo...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Texas Rangers

Starting pitcher matchup and early lineup advantages favor Texas through the first five frames. Athletics recent form shows early deficits t...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Texas Rangers F5

The Texas Rangers are anticipated to hold an advantage in the early innings, reflecting their overall team strength and the Athletics' recen...

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1 source cited
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 62% Texas Rangers

The Rangers' stronger pitching and more consistent offense should allow them to build a lead in the first five innings. The Athletics' tende...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Texas Rangers

Training data through 2025-09: Starting pitchers are key in the first five innings. The Rangers' probable starter is more reliable than the...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Texas Rangers

70
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Texas Rangers

68
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Texas Rangers

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Texas Rangers

65
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Texas Rangers

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Texas Rangers

57
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Texas Rangers

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: e905a44814935e33…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 15 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 24347,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Sutter Health Park",
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-15T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 15 Aug 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Texas Rangers",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LWLLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 22,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 29
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLL",
            "record": "0W-0D-5L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 40
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 37,
            "home": 37
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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