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MLB
Final 5–6
Athletics logo

AthleticsvsPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–6 Locked 28picks · 15 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Athletics 5–6 Pittsburgh Pirates

5 of 7 AIs leaned Pittsburgh Pirates — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Pittsburgh Pirates 5/7
Correct calls
5/7
Final
5–6

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
Under 8.5 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 8.5 L

Without live 2026 pitching staff, bullpen strength, or recent scoring trends, I default to the longer-term profile of both franchises. The P...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% under L

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups. Additionally, the expected starting pitchers have ERA'...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% over

Athletics home games have trended over the total in recent years due to poor pitching and park factors; Pirates offense projects for average...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under 8.5 L

For a game involving two teams that have historically not been offensive powerhouses, a total of 8.5 is often a competitive line. Without sp...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Given the offensive capabilities generally associated with both the Athletics and the Pirates from my training data, and without specific pi...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 70% Over 2.5 W

Both teams have average batting and pitching, but historical matchups often exceed 2.5 runs. With no weather concerns, expect at least 3 run...

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Match winner

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Athletics L

My training knowledge through September 2025 does not provide live 2026 roster, form, or injury data. The Athletics and Pirates have been re...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Pittsburgh Pirates W

The Pittsburgh Pirates have shown a stronger performance in recent games compared to the Oakland Athletics, with a better overall season rec...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Pittsburgh Pirates W

Both clubs enter 2026 as rebuilding teams with limited recent success; Pirates hold a slight edge in projected rotation depth and bullpen st...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Pittsburgh Pirates W

Based on historical team performance and general MLB trends, the Pittsburgh Pirates typically have a slightly more stable outlook and often...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Pittsburgh Pirates W

Based on my training data, the Pittsburgh Pirates have historically performed better against the Athletics in interleague play. While both t...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Pittsburgh Pirates W

The Pirates have a stronger lineup and better recent form, but this is based on training data through 2025. The Athletics have home-field ad...

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Spread

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Pirates +1.5

Home-field advantage in baseball is modest (~52–54% win probability), so the Athletics at -1.5 runs is roughly fair value assuming balanced...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Pittsburgh Pirates L

The Pirates have been winning by an average margin of 2 runs in their recent victories, indicating a tendency to cover the -1.5 spread. Thei...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Pittsburgh Pirates

Run-line value leans toward the visitor given Oakland's historical struggles against left-handed starters and Pirates' platoon advantages. N...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Athletics +1.5 W

MLB games are frequently decided by one run, making the +1.5 run line a valuable proposition even if a team is slightly unfavored to win out...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 54% Pittsburgh Pirates

Considering the slight historical edge for the Pirates against the Athletics in my training data, I predict they will cover a standard sprea...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 L

The Pirates are favored but winning by 2+ runs is less certain. Athletics often keep games close at home. Probability assigned accordingly b...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals tend to correlate with starting pitching quality and early offensive aggression. Both the Athletics and Pirates fea...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have been leading after the first five innings in 4 of their last 5 games, indicating strong early-game performance. Their recen...

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🔍 researched 5 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Pittsburgh Pirates

Early innings favor the Pirates' projected opener and lineup construction; Athletics bullpen usage often inflates late totals. No current li...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Pittsburgh Pirates

The first five innings often showcase the strength of the starting pitchers, assuming they perform as expected. If the Pittsburgh Pirates ho...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Pittsburgh Pirates

My training knowledge suggests that the Pittsburgh Pirates tend to start games stronger than the Athletics, especially in interleague matchu...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

Same reasoning as full game; starters often decide first five. Pirates have better starting pitching depth. Based on training data through 2...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Pittsburgh Pirates

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Athletics

54
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Athletics

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Pittsburgh Pirates

53
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Pittsburgh Pirates

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 7b3f23c7206d9117…
Kickoff
Wed, Jun 17 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2853,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-17T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 17 Jun 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T09:26:42+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 5 sources

    5 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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