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MLB
Final 11–2
Athletics logo

AthleticsvsPittsburgh Pirates

Pittsburgh Pirates logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final11–2 Locked 38picks · 23 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus missed

Athletics 11–2 Pittsburgh Pirates

4 of 8 AIs leaned Pittsburgh Pirates — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/8
Correct calls
4/8
Final
11–2

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Athletics W

As of my training data (through September 2025), the Athletics have shown marginal competitiveness in recent seasons with improving roster c...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Athletics W

Oakland enters this meeting with stronger recent form (4-1 last five) and a punchy lineup (Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom) while J.T. Ginn pro...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates L

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a slightly better overall record and have been performing well recently, with a 6-4 record in their last 10 game...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Pittsburgh Pirates L

Training data through 2025 shows Pirates with slightly better overall roster construction and pitching depth than the Athletics. Oakland's h...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Pittsburgh Pirates L

Based on historical MLB team performance trends through my training data (ending 2025-09), the Pittsburgh Pirates typically hold a slight ad...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Pittsburgh Pirates L

Based on training data through 2025-09, the Pittsburgh Pirates have generally performed better than the Athletics in recent seasons. While s...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Athletics W

The Athletics are at home and have a slightly better overall record in my training data, but the Pirates have been competitive. Home field a...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/11
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Under 8.5

MLB totals in mid-June typically reflect early-season pitcher depth and stabilizing bullpen arms. Both the Athletics and Pirates have histor...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% over W

Both clubs average near the mid-4 to 5 runs-per-game mark (Fox Sports shows PIT ~5.0, OAK ~4.5), producing a combined baseline near 9.5 runs...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over W

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with average runs per game exceeding 9.5. The starting pitchers have shown vul...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Training data through 2025 shows both clubs playing in higher-scoring environments on average. June night games trend toward elevated run to...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Under L

Assuming both teams maintain historical tendencies of inconsistent offenses and potentially relying on developing pitching, a total of 8.5 r...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

My training data suggests a moderate tendency for games involving the Athletics to have a higher number of runs due to pitching inconsistenc...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 52% Over

Both teams have been hitting reasonably well; Athletics average 4.2 runs per game, Pirates 4.5. The starting pitchers are solid but not domi...

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5 sources cited

Spread

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/11
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Athletics -1.5 W

A one-run spread favors the home team marginally in a matchup where roster quality slightly favors Oakland. The Pirates' continued developme...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 64% Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 L

Although I project Oakland to be the slight favorite straight-up, this looks like a close matchup where the Athletics win margin is likely n...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates L

Given the Pirates' slight edge in recent form and overall record, they are likely to cover a -1 spread. ([baseball-reference.com](https://ww...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Pittsburgh Pirates

Athletics remain a below-average club in 2025-2026 projections while Pirates roster is closer to neutral. Run-line pricing typically gives a...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 L

Given the assumed slight advantage for the Pirates in the head-to-head, a -1.5 run line implies they need to win by two or more runs. While...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

Given the general historical performance advantage of the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Athletics, they are more likely to cover a moderate sp...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 40% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 L

While the Pirates are favored to win, a 2-run victory is less likely due to close pitching matchup. Games are often decided by 1 run, especi...

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5 sources cited

First 5 innings

Consensus
Pittsburgh Pirates 4/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Under 4.5

First-five-inning totals are typically lower and more pitcher-dependent than full-game lines. Early-season bullpen freshness (mid-June) and...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Athletics

First-five-inning edge goes to Oakland: J.T. Ginn has been more reliable in getting through the early frames this season while Jared Jones'...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates' recent form and overall record suggest they may have a slight advantage in the first five innings. ([baseball-reference.com](ht...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 50% Pittsburgh Pirates

Early-inning scoring trends mirror full-game expectations with Pirates holding a modest edge. Both clubs have shown average bullpen usage th...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% Pittsburgh Pirates

The outcome of the first five innings heavily depends on the starting pitchers. Assuming the Pirates' hypothetical starting pitching quality...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have shown a stronger ability to start games strong in my training data, often having more reliable starting pitchers early in g...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Athletics

The Athletics have a decent starting rotation and home advantage in the early innings. The Pirates' bullpen is solid but starters are averag...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Athletics

57
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Pittsburgh Pirates

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Athletics

55
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Athletics

54
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Athletics

54
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Pittsburgh Pirates

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: c51cd76bd607faa3…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 16 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2795,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T07:26:26+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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