Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Kickoff · Tue, Jun 16 · 01:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 07:29 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded AIs split

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    c51cd76bd607faa3…

Sport: Tue, Jun 16 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2795,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Pittsburgh Pirates",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T07:26:26+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	54% Athletics	52% Under 8.5	51% Athletics -1.5	53% Under 4.5
Match winner ? 54% Athletics As of my training data (through September 2025), the Athletics have shown marginal competitiveness in recent seasons with improving roster c... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under 8.5 MLB totals in mid-June typically reflect early-season pitcher depth and stabilizing bullpen arms. Both the Athletics and Pirates have histor... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Athletics -1.5 A one-run spread favors the home team marginally in a matchup where roster quality slightly favors Oakland. The Pirates' continued developme... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 53% Under 4.5 First-five-inning totals are typically lower and more pitcher-dependent than full-game lines. Early-season bullpen freshness (mid-June) and... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Pittsburgh Pirates	60% over	55% Pittsburgh Pirates	55% Pittsburgh Pirates
Match winner ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates The Pittsburgh Pirates have a slightly better overall record and have been performing well recently, with a 6-4 record in their last 10 game... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Pirates averaging 5.2 runs per game and the Athletics averaging 4.2 runs per... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates Given the Pirates' slight edge in recent form and overall record, they are likely to cover a -1 spread. ([baseball-reference.com](https://ww... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates' recent form and overall record suggest they may have a slight advantage in the first five innings. ([baseball-reference.com](ht... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	52% Pittsburgh Pirates	51% over	51% Pittsburgh Pirates	50% Pittsburgh Pirates
Match winner ? 52% Pittsburgh Pirates Training data through 2025 shows Pirates with slightly better overall roster construction and pitching depth than the Athletics. Oakland's h... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Training data through 2025 shows both clubs playing in higher-scoring environments on average. June night games trend toward elevated run to... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Pittsburgh Pirates Athletics remain a below-average club in 2025-2026 projections while Pirates roster is closer to neutral. Run-line pricing typically gives a... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 50% Pittsburgh Pirates Early-inning scoring trends mirror full-game expectations with Pirates holding a modest edge. Both clubs have shown average bullpen usage th... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	55% Pittsburgh Pirates	52% Under	53% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5	54% Pittsburgh Pirates
Match winner ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates Based on historical MLB team performance trends through my training data (ending 2025-09), the Pittsburgh Pirates typically hold a slight ad... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Under Assuming both teams maintain historical tendencies of inconsistent offenses and potentially relying on developing pitching, a total of 8.5 r... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 53% Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 Given the assumed slight advantage for the Pirates in the head-to-head, a -1.5 run line implies they need to win by two or more runs. While... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 54% Pittsburgh Pirates The outcome of the first five innings heavily depends on the starting pitchers. Assuming the Pirates' hypothetical starting pitching quality... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	55% Pittsburgh Pirates	60% over	55% Pittsburgh Pirates	58% Pittsburgh Pirates
Match winner ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates Based on training data through 2025-09, the Pittsburgh Pirates have generally performed better than the Athletics in recent seasons. While s... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% over My training data suggests a moderate tendency for games involving the Athletics to have a higher number of runs due to pitching inconsistenc... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 55% Pittsburgh Pirates Given the general historical performance advantage of the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Athletics, they are more likely to cover a moderate sp... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 58% Pittsburgh Pirates The Pirates have shown a stronger ability to start games strong in my training data, often having more reliable starting pitchers early in g... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	55% Athletics	60% Over	65% Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5	55% Athletics
Match winner ? 55% Athletics The Athletics are at home and have a slightly better overall record in my training data, but the Pirates have been competitive. Home field a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% Over Both teams have middling pitching and offenses that can score. The Athletics' ballpark is hitter-friendly. With no dominant aces expected, t... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 65% Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 The Pirates are competitive and often keep games close. Even if the Athletics win, it's likely by a narrow margin. The +1.5 run line offers... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Athletics The Athletics have a decent starting rotation and home advantage in the early innings. The Pirates' bullpen is solid but starters are averag... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Pittsburgh Pirates 4/7	over 3/7	Pittsburgh Pirates 3/7	Pittsburgh Pirates 4/7

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

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