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MLB
Final 12–11
Athletics logo

AthleticsvsLos Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final12–11 Locked 24picks · 12 graded AIs split
Recap Consensus missed

Athletics 12–11 Los Angeles Angels

3 of 6 AIs leaned Los Angeles Angels — reality had other ideas.

AI lean
Los Angeles Angels 3/6
Correct calls
3/6
Final
12–11

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Spread

Consensus
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 51% Los Angeles Angels -1.5 L

The Angels maintain a marginal advantage in roster depth and offensive consistency compared to the rebuilding Athletics. A -1.5 spread favor...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Athletics

The Athletics have a slight edge in recent head-to-head matchups and a better overall season record. While the Angels have the potential to...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Athletics

Athletics are projected to receive a small home run-line advantage in this matchup. Historical results favor the home side covering the 1.5-...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Los Angeles Angels -1.5 L

If the Los Angeles Angels secure a win against the Athletics, their offensive capabilities often allow them to do so by more than one run. A...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Los Angeles Angels L

Given the Angels are favored in head-to-head, they are also more likely to cover a -1.5 run spread. This is a slight lean, as many baseball...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Los Angeles Angels +1.5 W

The Angels are competitive and often keep games close. Even if the Athletics win, it's likely by one run. The +1.5 spread offers good value...

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Match winner

Consensus
Los Angeles Angels 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Los Angeles Angels L

The Angels have been the stronger offensive team in recent seasons and typically hold a slight edge over the Athletics in head-to-head match...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Athletics W

The Athletics have a slight edge in recent head-to-head matchups, winning 2 of the last 3 games against the Angels. Additionally, the Athlet...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Athletics W

Athletics hold a slight home edge in historical matchups against the Angels based on training data through 2025-09. Both clubs typically fin...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Los Angeles Angels L

Given the future date of this match (June 20, 2026), specific real-time data like lineups or current form is unavailable. My prediction reli...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Los Angeles Angels L

The Los Angeles Angels are generally a stronger team than the Athletics based on historical performance and typical roster strength. While s...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Athletics W

The Athletics have had the better head-to-head record in recent meetings, and playing at home gives them an edge. However, the Angels have s...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Athletics 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Los Angeles Angels

Early-inning performance often mirrors overall team strength and starting pitcher quality. The Angels' historically stronger lineup construc...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Athletics

The Athletics have shown better performance in recent games, and the home advantage is significant. While the Angels have the potential to p...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Athletics

Early-inning data from training years shows Oakland starting rotations performing comparably to the Angels. Small home advantage persists th...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 58% Los Angeles Angels

In the early innings, starting pitching strength is often a key factor. Historically, the Angels typically field stronger starting pitchers...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% Los Angeles Angels

The Angels' slight historical advantage may extend into the early innings. Without knowing the starting pitchers, it's a marginal prediction...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Athletics

The Athletics tend to start strong at home, and their bullpen can be a concern later, making them more reliable in the first five innings. T...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

AL West matchups between Oakland and LA typically produce mid-range run totals in the 8–10 run range depending on pitching matchups. Both te...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances, but the Athletics have managed to score more runs in recent games. The Angels' of...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Training data shows these two offenses combine for above-average run totals in June night games. Pitching staffs are projected thin on both...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5 W

Assuming a standard total of 8.5 runs, both teams historically can be involved in higher-scoring games, especially if pitching depth is a co...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

Without specific starting pitchers or recent scoring trends, it's difficult to provide a precise total. However, MLB games on average tend t...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Over 8.5

Both teams have offensive firepower, and the Athletics' ballpark is hitter-friendly. Historical matchups between these teams often produce h...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Los Angeles Angels

60
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Los Angeles Angels

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Athletics

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Los Angeles Angels

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Athletics

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Athletics

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 905b36060378605a…
Kickoff
Sat, Jun 20 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4359,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-20T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 20 Jun 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Angels",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T06:23:32+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 4 sources

    4 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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