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MLB Major League Baseball · Sutter Health Park
Upcoming · in 89h 07m
Athletics logo

AthleticsvsDetroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

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AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

First 5 innings

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Detroit Tigers

Early-game advantage typically hinges on starter quality and lineup strength. Detroit's recent offensive explosiveness (25 runs in 5 games,...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Detroit Tigers

First-five innings lean toward Detroit because Perkins has been prone to giving up multiple runs in early frames while Valdez typically eats...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Athletics

The Athletics' home advantage and the Tigers' injury concerns may lead to the Athletics leading after the first five innings. ([baseball-ref...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 60% Detroit Tigers

Detroit's starters have been effective early while Oakland's lineup has struggled to score in the opening innings during their current skid....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 70% Detroit Tigers

Based on my training data through late 2025, the Detroit Tigers' superior overall team form and strong head-to-head performance against the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

With both starting pitchers having questionable recent form, we anticipate runs being scored in the first five innings. The potential for a...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% Detroit Tigers

The Tigers' starting pitching should have an advantage over the Athletics' rotation, as Detroit has allowed fewer runs (16 in last 5) compar...

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Spread

Consensus
Detroit Tigers -1.5 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Detroit's superior recent form (4-1 vs Oakland 0-5), dominant head-to-head sweep (two wins by 4+ runs), and offensive/defensive advantage st...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 46% Detroit Tigers -1.5

While Detroit is my game winner pick, the runline (-1.5) is notably riskier because Valdez can be taken deep in some outings and Perkins' vo...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Athletics

The Athletics' home advantage and the Tigers' injury concerns make the Athletics likely to cover the -1 spread. ([baseball-reference.com](ht...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Tigers have covered the run line in four of their last five games while Oakland's five-game losing streak includes multiple double-digit def...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 75% Detroit Tigers -1.5

Drawing on my training data up to late 2025, the Tigers have demonstrated the ability to win comfortably against the Athletics, covering a -...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Athletics

Given the slight edge in the pitching matchup and home-field advantage, we predict the Athletics will keep the game within a one-run margin...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Detroit Tigers -1.5

The Tigers have won their last two meetings against the Athletics by 5 and 4 runs, covering the -1.5 spread comfortably. Given the Athletics...

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Match winner

Consensus
Detroit Tigers 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 72% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters on a 4-1 run (25 scored, 16 conceded in last 5) while Oakland is in freefall at 0-5 (18 scored, 40 conceded). The Tigers domi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Detroit Tigers

Detroit's Framber Valdez is a clear upgrades to a Tigers rotation and projects to limit damage early, while Oakland's scheduled starter Jack...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Athletics

The Athletics have a home advantage and have shown better recent form compared to the Tigers. Additionally, the Tigers have a higher number...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 68% Detroit Tigers

Detroit enters with strong recent form (WWWWL) while Oakland has lost five straight and conceded 40 runs in that span. Recent head-to-head s...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 80% Detroit Tigers

Based on my training data through late 2025, the Detroit Tigers show significantly superior recent form (WWWWL) compared to the Athletics (L...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Athletics

Despite the Athletics' poor recent form, they are at home and have a slight edge with their projected starting pitcher, JP Sears, who has sh...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 72% Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning both meetings in July 2026 by a combined 12–3. The Athletics are on a 5-game...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 4/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 65% Over 8.5

Detroit has scored 25 runs in 5 recent matches (5.0 per game avg) while Oakland's struggling pitching allowed 40 across the same span (8.0 p...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 68% over

Jack Perkins has shown strikeout ability but also a high ERA and has allowed multiple multi-run outings recently; Detroit's offense has been...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown inconsistent offensive performances, but the Athletics' home advantage and the Tigers' injury concerns may lead to a h...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% over

Oakland's defense and bullpen have allowed 8 runs per game in the last five outings. Detroit's offense has scored 5 runs per game recently....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Over 8.5

My training data from late 2025 indicates the Athletics have conceded an average of 8 runs per game in their last five matches, highlighting...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Both starting pitchers have struggled recently, and the Athletics' ballpark can lead to higher scoring games. The provided bookmaker odds su...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 61% Over 8.5

The Athletics have been leaking runs, conceding 40 in their last 5 games (8.0 per game), while the Tigers have scored 25 in their last 5 (5....

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Detroit Tigers

80
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Detroit Tigers

72
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Detroit Tigers

72
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Detroit Tigers

68
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Detroit Tigers

62
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Athletics

60
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Athletics

55

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1054–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–583 · 54%
-362.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1127–1107 · 50%
-921.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 739–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1030–1054 · 49%
-745.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 875–925 · 49%
-723.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1016–1089 · 48%
-926.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Early read

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0b09cc3f8943e5cb…
Kickoff
Sat, Aug 1 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 18014,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Sutter Health Park",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-08-01T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sat, 01 Aug 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Detroit Tigers",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "WWWWL",
            "record": "4W-0D-1L",
            "scored": 25,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 16
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLLLL",
            "record": "0W-0D-5L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 40
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 23,
            "home": 23
        },
        "head_to_head": {
            "recent": [
                "2026-07-08: Detroit Tigers 6–1 Athletics",
                "2026-07-07: Detroit Tigers 6–2 Athletics"
            ],
            "matches": 2
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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