Athletics vs Colorado Rockies

Final: 9 – 23

Picks locked at Jun 14 · 00:34 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded · 10 graded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    a8665d276230defb…

Sport: Sun, Jun 14 · 19:05 GMT+0000
Markets: h2h · totals · spreads · first_five_innings
Source: The Odds API · live
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 2762,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-14T19:05:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 19:05:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Colorado Rockies",
        "home": "Athletics"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-14T00:32:17+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

AI predictions

4 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	First 5 innings ?	Spread ?	Over / Under ?	Match winner ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 4-5 -1.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 5-5 -0.3u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4 Flagship Anthropic	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 125-128 -87.1u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u	53% Colorado Rockies V	52% Colorado Rockies -1.5 V	54% Over 9.5 W	56% Colorado Rockies W
First 5 innings ? 53% Colorado Rockies First-five-innings markets typically favor offensive consistency and early bullpen stability. The Rockies have demonstrated stronger offensi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Colorado Rockies -1.5 The Rockies have historically held a slight edge over rebuilding Athletics franchises. A -1.5 spread suggests close-to-moderate confidence i... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 54% Over 9.5 Both the Rockies and Athletics have shown moderate-to-high run-scoring environments historically. Coors Field (Rockies home) is notoriously... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 56% Colorado Rockies As of my training data (September 2024), the Rockies have shown better offensive consistency and typically perform well in inter-league matc... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u	—	—	—	—
First 5 innings ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Match winner ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u	55% Athletics V	60% Athletics V	55% over W	60% Athletics L
First 5 innings ? 55% Athletics The Athletics have been strong in the early innings at home, suggesting they will lead after the first five innings. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Spread ? 60% Athletics Given the Athletics' strong home performance and the Rockies' road struggles, the Athletics are likely to cover the -1 spread. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Over / Under ? 55% over Both teams have shown tendencies to score multiple runs in recent games, suggesting a higher-scoring matchup. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited Match winner ? 60% Athletics The Athletics have a strong home record this season, while the Rockies have struggled on the road. Additionally, the Athletics have a better... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Heavy Flagship Xai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u	58% Athletics V	51% home_-1.5 V	55% over V	62% Athletics L
First 5 innings ? 58% Athletics Athletics projected starter holds a lower ERA than Colorado's opener in 2025 data. Early-game offense tends to favor the home nine before Ro... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% home_-1.5 Athletics bullpen depth gives them the better chance to close games by two or more runs. Rockies road record against left-handed starters ha... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 55% over Coors Field effects are absent but both staffs allow above-average contact; training data shows June games between these clubs averaging 9.2... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 62% Athletics Athletics hold a clear home edge against a Rockies club that finished last in the NL West in prior seasons. Training data through 2025-09 sh... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 4-7 -1.8u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u	54% Athletics F5 Win V	51% Athletics -1.5 V	53% Over 8.5 W	55% Athletics L
First 5 innings ? 54% Athletics F5 Win The first five innings often reflect the performance of the starting pitchers. Given the historical difficulties of Rockies' pitching, espec... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Athletics -1.5 Extending from the head-to-head pick, if the Athletics are favored to win, there's a reasonable chance they can do so by more than one run a... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 8.5 Historically, both the Athletics and Rockies have often featured pitching staffs that struggle to limit opponents, leading to higher-scoring... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Athletics Based on historical trends up to my training data cut-off, the Colorado Rockies have consistently struggled on the road. While the Athletics... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u	54% Colorado Rockies V	52% Colorado Rockies V	60% over V	55% Colorado Rockies L
First 5 innings ? 54% Colorado Rockies The prediction for the first five innings aligns with the overall game prediction. The Rockies are expected to start slightly stronger or ma... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Colorado Rockies Given the slight edge projected for the Rockies in the head-to-head market, they are also marginally favored to cover any standard spread. T... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% over Both the Athletics and Rockies have historically been teams that can contribute to higher-scoring games, especially in certain ballparks. Wi... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Colorado Rockies Based on general knowledge up to my last training cut-off, the Colorado Rockies have historically shown a slightly better performance than t... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u	45% Rockies V	30% Athletics -1.5 V	52% Over 8.5 V	55% Athletics L
First 5 innings ? 45% Rockies Rockies' starters have been solid early in games, while Athletics' bullpen is strong but starting pitching is inconsistent. Slight edge to R... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 30% Athletics -1.5 The Athletics are slight favorites, but winning by more than 1 run is not likely given the close matchup. The Rockies are competitive, so th... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 Both teams have been scoring moderately, and the Athletics' ballpark is slightly hitter-friendly. Pitching matchups are not dominant, so run... Unlock reasoning · Pro Match winner ? 55% Athletics The Athletics have home-field advantage and a slightly better recent record, but the Rockies have been playing well on the road. The game is... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Athletics 3/7	Athletics -1.5 3/7	over 4/7	Athletics 5/7

Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis

Reverse-engineer the match

Ask any AI to explain what happened or grade the consensus call.

Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Claude Sonnet 4.6
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 3 sources

3 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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