Arman Tsarukyan vs Tony Ferguson
TFKickoff · Sun, Jun 14 · 00:00 GMT+0000
Verifiable brief
Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified
hash:
ae9346fe8e73fbad…
- Sport
- Sun, Jun 14 · 00:00 GMT+0000
- Markets
- h2h · method_finish · goes_distance · round_group
- Source
- The Odds API · live
- Research
- AIs self-source
System instruction
You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.
You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.
Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
`predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
"0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.
Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | method_finish | goes_distance | round_group
Output schema:
{
"used_research_tools": true | false,
"sources_cited": [
{ "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
],
"predictions": [
{
"market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
"pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
"confidence": 0.0,
"probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
"reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
"signals": [
{ "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
"label": "Short fact in plain text.",
"lean": "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
],
"tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
}
]
}
User brief (JSON)
{
"event": {
"id": 3343,
"sport": "mma",
"venue": null,
"league": "MMA",
"starts_at": "2026-06-14T00:00:00+00:00",
"starts_at_human": "Sun, 14 Jun 2026 00:00:00 GMT"
},
"teams": {
"away": "Tony Ferguson",
"home": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
"version": "v1",
"built_at": "2026-06-13T18:30:22+00:00",
"market_consensus": {
"h2h": {
"away": 21,
"home": 1.01
},
"note": "Bookmaker consensus odds at the moment of the call. Frozen here so settlement grades against the same line.",
"extra_markets": {
"h2h": [
{
"point": null,
"price": 21,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 21,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 21,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 26,
"outcome": "Tony Ferguson"
},
{
"point": null,
"price": 1.01,
"outcome": "Arman Tsarukyan"
}
]
}
},
"markets_requested": [
"h2h",
"method_finish",
"goes_distance",
"round_group"
],
"research_directive": [
"Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
"recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
"Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
"If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
]
}
The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.
AI predictions
4 markets · 5 models picked
Who picked what
15 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning
| Model |
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
|
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
|
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
|
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
book: Arman Tsarukyan 99% |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Claude Opus 4.7 FlagshipAnthropic · 4-5 -1.2u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 5-5 -0.3u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Opus 4 FlagshipAnthropic |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Sonnet 4.6 FlagshipAnthropic · 125-128 -87.1u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 168-149 -107.9u |
42%
Submission |
68%
No |
55%
Round 1-2 |
98%
Arman Tsarukyan
~1.01
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
42%
Submission Tsarukyan has shown strong grappling and submission prowess throughout his career, with superior wrestling and ground control versus Ferguso...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
68%
No Tsarukyan's finishing rate and control advantage strongly suggest early stoppage—either submission or knockout—rather than the fight reachin...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
55%
Round 1-2 Given the disparity in athleticism and conditioning, Tsarukyan should establish dominance immediately. Early submission or striking exchange...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
98%
Arman Tsarukyan The odds of 1.01 for Tsarukyan versus 26 for Ferguson reflect an extreme skill and form gap. Tsarukyan is a rising lightweight prospect in h...
Odds: 1.01
Edge: -1.0%
|
|||||
GPT-5 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 30-17 +24.4u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 34-47 -25.2u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
|
o3 FlagshipOpenai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
Grok 4 Heavy FlagshipXai |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 112-170 -91.3u |
48%
Submission |
75%
No |
68%
1-3 |
96%
Arman Tsarukyan
~1.01
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
48%
Submission Tsarukyan's ground control and submission threat are elite; he has finished multiple opponents on the mat. Ferguson has historically been du...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
75%
No Tsarukyan's finishing rate is high against lesser competition and Ferguson is past his prime durability. The age and skill gap make a stoppa...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
68%
1-3 Tsarukyan typically closes fights inside the first three rounds when he secures top control. Ferguson has gone the distance in some recent l...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
96%
Arman Tsarukyan Arman Tsarukyan is a prime lightweight contender with elite wrestling and finishing ability while Tony Ferguson is a veteran on a long losin...
Odds: 1.01
Edge: -3.0%
|
|||||
Gemini 2.5 Pro FlagshipGoogle · 4-7 -1.8u |
Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro
Get Pro
|
||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 135-151 -121.4u |
55%
KO/TKO |
85%
No |
40%
Round 2 |
98%
Arman Tsarukyan
~1.01
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
KO/TKO Tony Ferguson's chin and durability have significantly deteriorated in recent years, leading to him absorbing considerable damage and being...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
85%
No Given Tony Ferguson's advanced age and the severe damage he has absorbed in multiple recent fights, it is highly improbable he would survive...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
40%
Round 2 Arman Tsarukyan is known for his high pace and ability to pressure opponents from the start, often looking for finishes in the early rounds....
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
98%
Arman Tsarukyan Arman Tsarukyan is a top-tier lightweight in his prime, with elite wrestling and ever-improving striking. Tony Ferguson, by June 2026, would...
Odds: 1.01
Edge: -1.0%
|
|||||
|
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 65-141 -96.1u |
— | — | — | — | |
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
No pick on this market.
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
No pick on this market.
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
No pick on this market.
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
No pick on this market. |
|||||
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 136-147 -106.2u |
55%
KO/TKO |
65%
No |
40%
Round 1 |
98%
Arman Tsarukyan
~1.01
|
|
|
Method of victory
?
Method of victory
How the fight ends. KO/TKO, submission, decision, etc.
55%
KO/TKO Tsarukyan has KO power and Ferguson's durability has declined, making a KO/TKO the most likely finish. However, Tsarukyan is also a grappler...
Goes the distance
?
Goes the distance
Goes the distance. Does the fight reach the final scheduled round.
65%
No Tsarukyan's finishing ability combined with Ferguson's recent tendency to be stopped early suggests the fight will not go the distance. Tsar...
Round group
?
Round group
Market explanation coming soon.
40%
Round 1 Tsarukyan often starts fast and Ferguson's chin is fragile, making a first-round finish plausible. However, Tsarukyan sometimes takes time t...
Match winner
?
Match winner
Match winner. Pick the team that wins in regular time (or who advances in cup formats).
98%
Arman Tsarukyan Arman Tsarukyan is a rising lightweight contender with elite wrestling and striking, while Tony Ferguson is on a 7-fight losing streak and c...
Odds: 1.01
Edge: -1.0%
|
|||||
|
Consensus |
Submission 2/5 |
No 5/5 |
Rounds 1-2 1/5 |
Arman Tsarukyan 5/5 |
|
|
Bookmaker line |
— |
— |
— |
Arman Tsarukyan 99% |
|
Ask the AIs · Post-match analysis
Reverse-engineer the match
Ask any AI to explain what happened or grade the consensus call.
Sign in to ask the AIs about this match. Pro adds in-play + post-match calls, alerts, and the reasoning behind every pick.
Bookmaker odds
1 books · sharp books pinned · best price highlighted
| Book | Arman Tsarukyan | Draw | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline | 1.01 | — | 26.00 |
| Book | Line | Over | Under |
|---|
| Book | Arman Tsarukyan | Tony Ferguson |
|---|
Line movement (h2h)
Each line = one bookmaker · sharp books pinned first
Arman Tsarukyan Tony Ferguson
Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.
Get the AI consensus before kickoff
Free. Pre-match alert per AI + see your picks graded as results land.