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MLB
Upcoming · in 89h 30m
Arizona Diamondbacks logo

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants logo

Kickoff · Wed, Jul 1 · 01:40 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 27 · 05:51 GMT+0000 28 picks recorded
Chat with the AIs about this match Pick the frontier models — Claude, GPT-5, Gemini, Grok & more — and watch them answer side by side, live, on the same brief.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 29f23f82b6d99d96…
Kickoff
Wed, Jul 1 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 8059,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-01T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Wed, 01 Jul 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "home": "Arizona Diamondbacks"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

5 markets · 7 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 5/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

As of my training cutoff (April 2025), the Diamondbacks have shown stronger recent performance and roster stability than the Giants. The Gia...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 57% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona gets a modest edge playing at Chase Field (retractable roof, climate-controlled) and the D-backs have been managing roster/rotation...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants have shown a strong performance in recent matchups against the Arizona Diamondbacks, with a 3-2 record in their las...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona has held a slight edge in recent seasons at home against San Francisco. Both clubs finished near .500 in 2023-2025 campaigns with co...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

Based on my training data through 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks typically hold a slight home-field advantage against divisional rivals like...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Francisco Giants

Based on general baseball knowledge up to my last training data, the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks have been competitive tea...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have been a competitive team in recent seasons with a solid lineup and improved pitching, while the Giants have faced consi...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Both Arizona and San Francisco are mid-tier offensive teams historically. A run total near 8.5 is reasonable for an MLB matchup, with modest...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% over

Both clubs have shown uneven pitching and moderate offensive firepower this month; with rotation/injury churn and the neutral-to-hitter frie...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% under

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups, indicating a tendency towards lower-scoring games. Add...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Chase Field plays as a hitter-friendly park in summer months. Both lineups feature power bats that produce elevated run totals. Projection r...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Over 8.5

Assuming a standard line of 8.5 runs, Chase Field's environment historically tends to favor higher-scoring games, especially in July. Both t...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over

With no live data, predicting totals is difficult. However, MLB games on average tend to be in the 7-9 run range. Given the general offensiv...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Both teams have offensive capabilities that can produce runs, and ballparks like Chase Field can be hitter-friendly. Historical matchups bet...

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Spread

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 3/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 50% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

The Diamondbacks have a marginal edge at home, but without current roster composition, bullpen strength, or pitcher pairings for July 2026,...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 50% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

A one-and-a-half run road spread is tight in MLB; given home advantage (Chase Field) and roster continuity for the D-backs, they have a fair...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants

The Giants have demonstrated a stronger offensive performance in recent games, with an average of 5.2 runs per game in their last five outin...

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🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% home_ -1.5

Diamondbacks have covered the run line at a 51 percent clip versus the Giants in home games. Bullpen reliability gives Arizona a modest late...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% San Francisco Giants +1.5

While the Diamondbacks often have a slight edge at home (per training data through 2024), MLB games are frequently close. Covering a -1.5 ru...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% San Francisco Giants

Predicting spreads without current form or head-to-head data is challenging. My training data suggests that the Giants have historically sho...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 35% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

Winning by more than one run is challenging in baseball, especially when teams are closely matched. The Diamondbacks' advantage at home is n...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Under 4.5 (first 5 innings)

Early-inning totals in MLB tend to run lower than full-game totals; pitchers typically settle in during the first five frames. Both Arizona...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 45% Arizona Diamondbacks

Early-inning scoring is likely to be close: with spot/potential bullpen usage and Chase Field controlling external conditions, the D-backs h...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants

The Giants have been strong in the first five innings, averaging 3.0 runs in the first five innings over their last five games. This early o...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting pitcher matchups have historically favored the home side in this series through the first five frames. Early offense at Chase Field...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 48% Arizona Diamondbacks

Based on my training data through 2024, the Diamondbacks typically benefit from a home-field advantage which often extends to the early inni...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

Home teams often have a slight edge in the first five innings due to familiarity with the ballpark and early game focus. The Diamondbacks' s...

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First five innings over 4.5

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% over

For the first five innings, I'm anticipating a slightly faster start to scoring. Both teams have historically had periods of offensive stren...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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