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MLB
Final 5–4
Arizona Diamondbacks logo

Arizona DiamondbacksvsSan Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final5–4 Locked 24picks · 14 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Arizona Diamondbacks 5–4 San Francisco Giants

4 of 6 AIs leaned Arizona Diamondbacks — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Arizona Diamondbacks 4/6
Correct calls
4/6
Final
5–4

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 4/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Arizona has historically been stronger at home in late June, and the Diamondbacks' roster depth gives them a slight edge in June matchups. T...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants L

The San Francisco Giants have shown strong performance in recent games, with a solid record in June 2026. The Arizona Diamondbacks have been...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Arizona hosts at Chase Field with a slight edge in park factors and home record historically. Giants road performance has been inconsistent....

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Given this game is set in the future (2026), specific real-time data like current form or lineups are unavailable. This prediction relies on...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% San Francisco Giants L

The San Francisco Giants have a stronger historical record against the Arizona Diamondbacks, especially in recent years. While the Diamondba...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Based on training data through 2025, the Diamondbacks have a slight edge at home against the Giants. Recent head-to-head trends and home-fie...

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Spread

Consensus
San Francisco Giants 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Arizona -1.5

The Diamondbacks' home-field advantage and typical late-June form suggest a modest edge, warranting a slight lean toward a 1–2 run victory m...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants L

Given the Giants' recent strong performance and the Diamondbacks' inconsistency, the Giants are likely to cover a -1 spread in this game.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 48% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 L

Home team covers the run line at a modest rate in day/night splits. Giants bullpen fatigue often allows late leads to hold. Training data th...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 54% San Francisco Giants +1.5 W

While the Diamondbacks are slightly favored to win outright, covering the 1.5-run spread against a divisional rival is often a difficult tas...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 51% San Francisco Giants L

Given the slight lean towards the Giants in a head-to-head matchup, covering a -1.5 spread is a challenging but achievable outcome for them....

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 30% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 L

A -1.5 run line requires a two-run win, which is unlikely given the close matchup. The probability of a one-run game is high, favoring the G...

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Over / Under

Consensus
over 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Arizona–San Francisco matchups in late June typically fall into the 8–9 run range given both teams' offensive profiles. Neither team is know...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities in recent games, suggesting a higher likelihood of runs exceeding 2.5 in this matchup.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Both lineups project average-to-above scoring in a neutral park. Historical June totals in Arizona tilt slightly over. Training data through...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Over 8.5 W

Without specific pitching matchups for 2026, predicting total runs is challenging. However, divisional matchups can sometimes lead to higher...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% over W

Both teams have shown moderate scoring tendencies, and with the projection of a relatively neutral offensive environment, the game is likely...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 50% Over 8.5

Both teams have average offensive production and pitching staffs, making the total near a toss-up. No weather or lineup info available, so I...

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First five innings total runs

Consensus
over 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% over

Early innings often see teams establishing momentum, and with comparable starting pitchers projected, there's a reasonable chance for early...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

First 5 innings

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 3/5
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 4.5

Early innings in NL West matchups tend to see moderate scoring, particularly when neither team is in a severe offensive or pitching slump. T...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% San Francisco Giants

The Giants have been strong in the early innings recently, suggesting they will lead after the first five innings in this matchup.

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 2 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting pitching matchup favors Arizona early. Giants have shown slow starts on the road. Training data through 2023 used given lack of 202...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Arizona Diamondbacks

The First Five Innings market heavily relies on starting pitching and early offensive output. Without knowing the specific pitchers for 2026...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

First five innings often favor teams with better early-inning performance. The Diamondbacks have a slight home advantage and generally solid...

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Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

San Francisco Giants

55
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

San Francisco Giants

55
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Arizona Diamondbacks

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Arizona Diamondbacks

53
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Arizona Diamondbacks

52

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–802 · 57%
-605.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 692–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1130–1110 · 50%
-924.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 741–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1039–1061 · 49%
-752.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–930 · 49%
-728.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1018–1093 · 48%
-930.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 0acfc9bdd3a62404…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 30 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 7778,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-30T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 30 Jun 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "home": "Arizona Diamondbacks"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro
  • GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini
    4 tool calls · 2 sources

    2 citations captured — unlock with Pro

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

  • Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash
    0 tool calls · 0 sources

    No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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