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MLB
Upcoming · in 81h 58m
Arizona Diamondbacks logo

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins logo

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 19:15 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 18 · 05:51 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: ecc2d529ec2c0ba0…
Kickoff
Sun, Jun 21 · 19:15 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5451,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T19:15:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 19:15:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Minnesota Twins",
        "home": "Arizona Diamondbacks"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-18T05:51:47+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Match winner

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

As of my training data (through April 2025), the Diamondbacks have been a competitive NL West team with strong pitching depth, while the Twi...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a strong home record, and the Minnesota Twins have struggled on the road this season. Additionally, the Diamon...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks hold a modest home edge in training data through 2025-09 against average Twins clubs. Recent form and rest factors are neutral...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% Arizona Diamondbacks

Based on training data up to my knowledge cut-off, Arizona often plays well at home and is a competitive team. Assuming a matchup of similar...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a historical advantage in head-to-head matchups against the Minnesota Twins. While both teams have varying lev...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Minnesota Twins

The Twins have a strong offense and solid pitching depth, while the Diamondbacks have been inconsistent. However, the game is in Arizona, wh...

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Over / Under

Consensus
Over 8.5 2/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Over 8.5

Late June baseball typically sees elevated run-scoring as weather warms and pitching depth diminishes through fatigue. Both Diamondbacks and...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% under

Both teams have been averaging fewer than 9.5 runs per game in their recent matchups. Additionally, both teams have strong pitching rotation...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% over

Historical scoring in D-backs home games trends slightly above league average. Pitching matchups from training data suggest moderate run tot...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Over 8.5

Based on general MLB trends and typical park factors for Chase Field, which is known to be conducive to scoring, an over 8.5 total is a reas...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

Given the offensive capabilities of both teams and potential pitching matchups, the game is likely to see a moderate to high number of runs...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 65% over 8.5

Arizona's pitching staff has struggled, and Minnesota's lineup is potent. Chase Field is hitter-friendly, and both bullpens are mediocre. Ex...

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Spread

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 3/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 48% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

Home-field advantage and Arizona's historical competitive standing support a slight Diamondbacks lean, but a 1.5-run spread is marginal in b...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have been winning by more than 1.5 runs in their recent home games, and the Twins have struggled to cover the spread on the...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona's home run-line performance edges out on past seasons. Twins road struggles noted in limited head-to-head samples. No strong fatigue...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Minnesota Twins +1.5

While Arizona is projected to win, covering the -1.5 run line in baseball is often challenging due to the frequency of one-run games. The Tw...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are favored slightly at home due to their historical performance in this matchup and home-field advantage. While the Twins...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 45% Minnesota Twins -1.5

While the Twins are favored to win, covering a 1.5-run spread on the road is tough. Arizona can keep it close at home, so the value is on th...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

First-five-inning markets are typically pitcher-matchup-dependent. Arizona's pitching staff has historically been stronger than Minnesota's,...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have been leading after the first five innings in their recent home games, and the Twins have been slow starters on the roa...

Unlock reasoning · Pro
🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Arizona Diamondbacks

Early inning data favors home starters historically for Arizona. Lineup depth gives slight edge in first five. Training knowledge shows bala...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Arizona Diamondbacks

Assuming a slight early game edge for the home team due to general home-field advantage and typical starting pitcher strength from training...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 56% over

The early innings of a baseball game can often be influenced by starting pitchers. With potentially strong offenses on both sides, there's a...

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2 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 51% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona's starter has been effective early in games, and the Twins' offense sometimes takes a few innings to warm up. Slight home advantage...

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

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