Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins

Kickoff · Sun, Jun 21 · 02:10 GMT+0000

Picks locked at Jun 17 · 05:56 GMT+0000 24 picks recorded

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified


                    hash:
                    96fea9d41200e91e…

Kickoff: Sun, Jun 21 · 02:10 GMT+0000
Markets: Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds: 15+ live books
Research: AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 4901,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-21T02:10:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Sun, 21 Jun 2026 02:10:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Minnesota Twins",
        "home": "Arizona Diamondbacks"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-17T05:56:48+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

4 markets · 6 models picked

Who picked what

16 models × 4 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Unlock flagship models

Model	Match winner ?	Over / Under ?	Spread ?	First 5 innings ?
Claude Opus 4.7 Flagship Anthropic · 32-54 -29.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 31-55 -28.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Flagship Anthropic · 5-3 -1.9u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Flagship Anthropic · 234-279 -217.2u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Anthropic · 271-311 -261.0u	55% Arizona Diamondbacks	52% Over 8.5	54% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5	56% Under 4.5
Match winner ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks As of my training data (through September 2025), the Diamondbacks have been a competitive NL West franchise with strong pitching depth, whil... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 52% Over 8.5 MLB totals in mid-June typically trend toward moderate scoring environments; a total around 8.5 reflects standard park factors and early-sum... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 54% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 The Diamondbacks' home-field advantage and established pitching tradition support a modest run-line edge. A -1.5 spread implies Arizona favo... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 56% Under 4.5 First-five-inning totals typically see lower run production than full-game markets; starters and early bullpen are generally fresher and sha... Unlock reasoning · Pro
GPT-5 Flagship Openai · 4-0 +0.0u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
GPT-5 Mini Openai · 82-63 +7.3u	—	—	—	—
Match winner ? No pick on this market. Over / Under ? No pick on this market. Spread ? No pick on this market. First 5 innings ? No pick on this market.
GPT-4o Mini Openai · 130-141 -98.2u	55% Arizona Diamondbacks	60% over	55% Arizona Diamondbacks	55% Arizona Diamondbacks
Match winner ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks The Arizona Diamondbacks have a slight edge over the Minnesota Twins, with a 4-6 record in their last 10 head-to-head matchups. ([matchstat.... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Over / Under ? 60% over Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Twins averaging 4.6 runs per game and the Diamondbacks averaging 4.5 runs pe... Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited Spread ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks The Diamondbacks' home advantage and recent form suggest they are likely to cover a -1 spread against the Twins. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited First 5 innings ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks The Diamondbacks' home performance and recent form give them a slight edge in the first five innings against the Twins. Unlock reasoning · Pro 🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o3 Flagship Openai	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4.3 Flagship Xai · 1-3 -3.0u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Grok 4 Fast Xai · 255-274 -176.2u	53% Arizona Diamondbacks	51% over	52% Arizona Diamondbacks	50% Arizona Diamondbacks
Match winner ? 53% Arizona Diamondbacks Diamondbacks hold slight home edge in training data patterns through 2023 and early 2024 seasons. Twins show inconsistent road performance h... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 51% over Both lineups project average offense in neutral conditions per historical matchups. Pitching staffs not dominant enough to suppress runs con... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 52% Arizona Diamondbacks Home field and rest advantage give Arizona a narrow spread lean. Twins road record historically weaker. No fresh injury data forces conserva... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 50% Arizona Diamondbacks Early innings often favor home starter per historical splits. No 2026 lineups available so default to balanced lean from past season archety... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro Flagship Google · 4-0 +0.0u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Flagship Google · 28-57 -34.7u	Flagship picks across 4 markets — unlock with Pro Get Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Google · 213-267 -234.0u	52% Arizona Diamondbacks	53% Over 8.5	51% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5	38% Arizona Diamondbacks
Match winner ? 52% Arizona Diamondbacks This prediction is based on general team competitiveness and a slight home-field advantage drawn from my training data through 2025-09. With... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% Over 8.5 Based on my training data through 2025-09, both the Diamondbacks and Twins typically feature capable offenses. This suggests a game with a m... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 51% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Relying on my training data through 2025-09, if the home team, Arizona, is to win, they often do so by more than one run, especially when th... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 38% Arizona Diamondbacks Based on general team strengths from my training data through 2025-09, a slight edge is given to the home team in the initial innings. While... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Google · 200-280 -204.8u	55% Arizona Diamondbacks	53% over	54% Minnesota Twins	52% Arizona Diamondbacks
Match winner ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks Based on training data, the Arizona Diamondbacks have historically performed well at home and generally have a stronger pitching rotation, g... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 53% over Both teams have shown a tendency for moderate scoring games, and without specific pitching matchups or lineup information, the over is a sli... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 54% Minnesota Twins Given the slight lean towards the Diamondbacks winning the head-to-head, this suggests the Twins might be slightly undervalued on the spread... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 52% Arizona Diamondbacks Historically, the Diamondbacks have been known to start games strong at home, particularly against teams without a definitive ace pitching.... Unlock reasoning · Pro
DeepSeek V3 Deepseek · 260-304 -178.4u	55% Arizona Diamondbacks	60% Over 8.5	45% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5	55% Arizona Diamondbacks
Match winner ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks Based on training data through 2025, the Diamondbacks have been a strong home team with a potent offense, while the Twins have had inconsist... Unlock reasoning · Pro Over / Under ? 60% Over 8.5 Both teams have decent offensive lineups and Arizona's ballpark is hitter-friendly. Starting pitchers are likely to be mid-rotation, leading... Unlock reasoning · Pro Spread ? 45% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 Arizona is expected to win, but by a narrow margin. The run line is a risky pick without up-to-date lineup and bullpen info. Slight lean to... Unlock reasoning · Pro First 5 innings ? 55% Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona's starting pitcher, likely Zac Gallen based on 2025 rotation, is strong early. Twins' offense may take time to adjust. However, no c... Unlock reasoning · Pro
Consensus	Arizona Diamondbacks 6/6	Over 8.5 3/6	Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 3/6	Arizona Diamondbacks 5/6

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Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Claude Haiku 4.5
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Grok 4 Fast
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
GPT-4o Mini
4 tool calls · 4 sources

4 citations captured — unlock with Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
DeepSeek V3
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.
Gemini 2.5 Flash
0 tool calls · 0 sources

No live web access — picked from training-data knowledge.

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