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MLB
Final 4–3
Arizona Diamondbacks logo

Arizona DiamondbacksvsLos Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Final4–3 Locked 36picks · 20 graded
Recap Consensus called it

Arizona Diamondbacks 4–3 Los Angeles Angels

7 of 8 AIs leaned Arizona Diamondbacks — and reality agreed.

AI lean
Arizona Diamondbacks 7/8
Correct calls
7/8
Final
4–3

Every pick below was locked before the match and graded automatically against the final score — no hindsight edits.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 5/10
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 54% Over 8.5 L

MLB games in 2026 have trended toward higher scoring environments with recent rule changes and livelier ball considerations. A mid-June matc...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 54% over L

Book O/U around 9 (Fox Sports lists 9); both clubs have run-producing bats and Nelson's inconsistency creates upside for higher-run innings,...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% over W

Both teams have shown moderate offensive capabilities, with the Angels averaging 4.3 runs per game and the Diamondbacks averaging 4.6. Given...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 52% over

Both clubs have tended to produce higher-scoring games in summer months. Training data through 2023 indicates average run totals above leagu...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 52% over_8.5 L

Based on training data, both teams have periods of inconsistent pitching but also possess capable offenses. MLB scoring trends have often pu...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% over

Baseball games can be high-scoring, and without specific pitching matchups or recent offensive trends, predicting an 'over' total is a reaso...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% over 8.5

Both teams have potent lineups, and Chase Field is hitter-friendly. The starting pitchers have moderate ERAs, and bullpens are average. Expe...

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Match winner

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 7/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 58% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Arizona enters as the slight favourite in what appears to be a mid-June matchup. The Diamondbacks have historically been a stronger franchis...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 56% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Arizona is the slight favorite at home with Merrill Kelly back in the rotation but sporting an inflated 2026 ERA and modest strikeout totals...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Arizona Diamondbacks W

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a stronger home record (18-10) compared to the Los Angeles Angels' away record (11-20). Additionally, the Diam...

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 54% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Arizona has generally fielded the stronger roster in recent seasons. Training data through 2023 shows D-backs holding a slight edge in inter...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 53% Arizona Diamondbacks W

Based on training data up to my last update (mid-2024), the Arizona Diamondbacks have shown a more cohesive team performance recently, culmi...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Los Angeles Angels L

Based on general baseball knowledge, the Los Angeles Angels often perform well at home. Without specific recent form or lineup data, I am le...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 62% Arizona Diamondbacks W

The Diamondbacks have been strong at home, while the Angels are struggling with inconsistency. Arizona's offense is superior, and they have...

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Spread

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 4/9
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 52% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 L

The Diamondbacks' home-field advantage and structural superiority over the Angels supports a modest spread lean. A 1.5-run line is tight, re...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 52% home_ -1.5

Arizona covering -1.5 is marginally likelier than not because they are at home (21-14), Merrill Kelly's inconsistency makes a multi-run D-ba...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks' superior home performance and recent form suggest they are likely to cover a -1 spread against the Angels.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 51% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 L

Home-field advantage plus roster edge supports a narrow run-line lean. Historical matchups show Arizona covering the run line slightly more...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 55% Los Angeles Angels +1.5 W

Even if the Diamondbacks are favored to win straight up, baseball games are often decided by one run. Taking the underdog on the +1.5 run li...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 52% Arizona Diamondbacks

Given the lack of specific information, predicting the spread is challenging. However, slight favoring of the home team on the spread is a c...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 42% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 L

While Arizona is favored, winning by 2 runs is less likely in a close contest. The Angels can keep it tight if their stars perform. The spre...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 7/8
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 56% Arizona Diamondbacks

Early-game advantage typically favours the home team with fresh lineups. Arizona's starting pitcher and lineup composition in the first five...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

Predicting the home side (Arizona) to lead after five frames is reasonable because Merrill Kelly has allowed runs early in several 2026 star...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks' strong home performance and recent form suggest they are likely to lead after the first five innings.

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🔍 researched 4 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% Arizona Diamondbacks

Early-game starters typically favor the home side in this matchup profile. Training data shows Arizona slightly more likely to lead after fi...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 51% Arizona Diamondbacks

The first five innings often showcase the starting pitchers and initial offensive adjustments. Based on general team profiles from my traini...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% over

In the early innings of a baseball game, momentum and early scoring can set the tone. Predicting an 'over' for the first five innings assume...

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DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona's starting pitcher has better early-inning numbers than the Angels' starter. The Diamondbacks also score early often. The first five...

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First five innings 4.5

Consensus
under 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% under

Both probable starters have recent stretches of pitching at least into the fifth inning and limiting early damage (Ureña's game logs show co...

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🔍 researched 6 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Arizona Diamondbacks

65
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Arizona Diamondbacks

62
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Arizona Diamondbacks

58
Claude Sonnet 4.6

Claude Sonnet 4.6

Arizona Diamondbacks

57
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Arizona Diamondbacks

56
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Los Angeles Angels

55
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Arizona Diamondbacks

54
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Arizona Diamondbacks

53

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1056–799 · 57%
-602.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 690–586 · 54%
-365.1u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1128–1109 · 50%
-923.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 740–743 · 50%
-501.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1031–1055 · 49%
-746.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 876–927 · 49%
-725.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1017–1091 · 48%
-928.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 8d69e91b2fd46797…
Kickoff
Tue, Jun 16 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 5028,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": null,
        "league": "MLB",
        "starts_at": "2026-06-16T01:41:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 16 Jun 2026 01:41:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Los Angeles Angels",
        "home": "Arizona Diamondbacks"
    },
    "version": "v1",
    "built_at": "2026-06-16T00:15:03+00:00",
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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