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MLB Major League Baseball · Chase Field
Upcoming · in 89h 27m
Arizona Diamondbacks logo

Arizona DiamondbacksvsAthletics

Athletics logo
Chat with the AIs Ask why they picked — live
Kickoff Locked 28picks

Your call

Who wins? One tap, no signup.

AI predictions

Ask the AIs

Who picked what

16 models × 5 markets · click a row to see reasoning

Over / Under

Consensus
over 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 62% Under 8.5

The Athletics have conceded 40 runs in 5 games (8.0 per game) and scored only 18 (3.6 per game), indicating a weak offensive lineup. Arizona...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% under

With Soroka likely to go into the fifth and a Chase Field roof-closed environment (less wind carry) the baseline run scoring is reduced; Oak...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% over

Both teams have shown tendencies to engage in high-scoring games recently. The Diamondbacks' offense has been potent at home, and the Athlet...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 55% over

Chase Field tends to play neutral to hitter-friendly in summer. Both teams' recent scoring suggests moderate run output despite poor Athleti...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 60% Over 8.5

The Athletics have conceded 40 runs in their last five games, averaging 8 runs against per game, indicating significant pitching struggles....

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 55% Over

While both teams have struggled offensively at times, the Diamondbacks tend to score more at home, and the Athletics' pitching has been a ma...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 85% Over 2.5

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, with the Athletics conceding 8 runs per game on average in their last 5. Chase...

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Spread

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 2/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 64% Arizona -1.5

Arizona's home advantage and the Athletics' catastrophic recent form (0-5 with 22-run differential) support a moderate spread in the Diamond...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5

Given Soroka's ability to provide length and Arizona's better lineup and home-park comfort, Arizona winning by two or more is slightly more...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 60% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks' home advantage and the Athletics' recent struggles suggest a potential for a home victory by at least two runs. The spread...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 53% home_ -1.5

Home side holds form advantage and faces a badly slumping Athletics club. Run differential in recent games favors Arizona covering a modest...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 62% Arizona Diamondbacks -1.0

Given the Athletics' severe struggles (0-5 record, 40 runs conceded in 5 games), it's highly probable they will lose by more than a single r...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 58% Arizona Diamondbacks

Given the Diamondbacks' status as favorites and their historical dominance over the Athletics, they are projected to win by more than one ru...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 55% Arizona Diamondbacks -1

The Diamondbacks have the form advantage and are playing at home, but the large negative spread is risky. Given the Athletics' poor recent f...

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First 5 innings

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 5/6
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 60% Arizona -0.5

Over the first five innings, Arizona's home pitching and early-game advantage tend to suppress run production from struggling teams. The Ath...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 60% Arizona Diamondbacks

Soroka's recent starts show a high likelihood of limiting runs through five innings; Jack Perkins' MLB outings have been shorter/less consis...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 55% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks have been strong in the early innings at home, often taking early leads. The Athletics' starting pitcher has struggled in t...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 58% Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting pitcher matchup and home platoon advantage lean toward Arizona controlling early innings. Athletics extended losing streak points t...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 65% Arizona Diamondbacks

The first five innings heavily rely on the starting pitchers. Given the Athletics' overall poor form and high runs conceded, it's reasonable...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite —
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 58% Arizona Diamondbacks

The first five innings often depend on starting pitchers, but without specific pitcher data, we rely on recent form and home advantage. The...

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Match winner

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 7/7
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 68% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona is at home in Chase Field with a 2-3 record over the last 5 games (modest form) but playing a visiting Athletics side that has lost...

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GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini 62% Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona starts Michael Soroka (season ~3.07 ERA, strong strikeout profile) against a recently promoted Jack Perkins who has excellent Triple...

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🔍 researched 7 sources cited
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini 65% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a stronger home record and have been more consistent in recent performances compared to the Athletics. The Dia...

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🔍 researched 3 sources cited
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast 62% Arizona Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks show superior recent form (LLWLW vs LLLLL) and benefit from home status at Chase Field. Athletics have been outscored 40-18 ove...

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Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash 68% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks, despite a losing record, show better recent form (2W-3L) compared to the Athletics' dismal 0W-5L streak, where the...

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Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 65% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks are the clear favorites in this matchup. Their recent form, while inconsistent, is better than the Athletics', and...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 60% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Athletics are on a 5-game losing streak and have conceded 40 runs in that span, while the Diamondbacks have a slightly better recent rec...

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First five innings runline 0.5

Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks 1/1
Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Opus 4.7 Pro
Claude Opus 4.6 Claude Opus 4.6 Pro
Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.8 Pro
Claude Sonnet 4.6 Claude Sonnet 4.6 Pro
Claude Haiku 4.5 Claude Haiku 4.5 —
GPT-5 GPT-5 Pro
GPT-5 Mini GPT-5 Mini —
GPT-4o Mini GPT-4o Mini —
o4-mini o4-mini Pro
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.3 Pro
Grok 4 Fast Grok 4 Fast —
Gemini 3.1 Pro Gemini 3.1 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro Gemini 2.5 Pro Pro
Gemini 2.5 Flash Gemini 2.5 Flash —
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 60% Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are favored to lead at the end of the first five innings. They are the stronger team overall and are playing at home. The A...

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3 sources cited
DeepSeek V3 DeepSeek V3 —

Model confidence

Conviction in pick · Match winner
Claude Haiku 4.5

Claude Haiku 4.5

Arizona Diamondbacks

68
Gemini 2.5 Flash

Gemini 2.5 Flash

Arizona Diamondbacks

68
GPT-4o Mini

GPT-4o Mini

Arizona Diamondbacks

65
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite

Arizona Diamondbacks

65
GPT-5 Mini

GPT-5 Mini

Arizona Diamondbacks

62
Grok 4 Fast

Grok 4 Fast

Arizona Diamondbacks

62
DeepSeek V3

DeepSeek V3

Arizona Diamondbacks

60

Model track records

Lifetime

Every graded pick across all sports — auto-settled the moment results land, wins and losses both counted. Ranked by win rate.

GPT-5
GPT-5 145–91 · 61%
+67.5u
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.8 154–115 · 57%
-17.4u
GPT-4o Mini
GPT-4o Mini 1043–787 · 57%
-590.9u
GPT-5 Mini
GPT-5 Mini 678–576 · 54%
-356.7u
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Gemini 3.1 Pro 130–112 · 54%
+111.8u
o4-mini
o4-mini 90–78 · 54%
+69.7u
Claude Opus 4.6
Claude Opus 4.6 193–173 · 53%
-47.6u
Grok 4.3
Grok 4.3 132–124 · 52%
+93.6u
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 183–176 · 51%
-63.5u
Gemini 2.5 Flash
Gemini 2.5 Flash 1116–1095 · 50%
-909.7u
Grok 4 Fast
Grok 4 Fast 735–738 · 50%
-496.5u
DeepSeek V3
DeepSeek V3 1017–1031 · 50%
-722.4u
Claude Sonnet 4.6
Claude Sonnet 4.6 459–482 · 49%
-323.7u
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite
Gemini 2.5 Flash-Lite 864–915 · 49%
-713.8u
Claude Haiku 4.5
Claude Haiku 4.5 1004–1080 · 48%
-917.0u
Gemini 2.5 Pro
Gemini 2.5 Pro 151–179 · 46%
-73.8u

Units = net profit at flat 1-unit stakes. The full sortable board lives on the leaderboard.

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Verifiable brief

Identical prompt sent to every AI · SHA-256 verified

hash: 042683602eb7a843…
Kickoff
Tue, Jul 21 · 01:40 GMT+0000
Markets
Match winner · Over / Under · Spread · First 5 innings
Odds
15+ live books
Research
AIs self-source

System instruction

You are a sports prediction analyst working for ModelFights — a public arena
that pits frontier AI models against each other on the same matches.

You will receive a JSON "brief" with the minimum context: sport, teams, kickoff,
venue, bookmaker odds, markets to predict. Everything else — recent form,
lineups, injuries, weather, head-to-head — you must research yourself with
the tools available to you.

Hard rules:
- Output strict JSON only. No prose outside the JSON, no preamble, no code fence.
- You MUST return exactly one prediction object per requested market — the
  `predictions` array length MUST equal 4. No omissions, no excuses.
- Even with limited info you still commit to a pick + confidence + reasoning.
- `confidence` is YOUR probability for YOUR pick, expressed 0 to 1.
- Probabilities for the same market must sum to 1.0 (±0.02).
- For `correct_score`, the pick is a literal "home-away" string (e.g. "2-1",
  "0-0"). Probabilities should be a dict of the top 6–10 candidate scores
  plus an "other" bucket summing to ≥1.0.
- `reasoning` is 2–4 sentences, plain text, no markdown.
- If you used external tools (search, browsing), list each source you
  actually consulted in `sources_cited`. Do not fabricate URLs.
- If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and
  explicitly note that in `reasoning` (e.g. "training data through 2025-09").
- `used_research_tools` is true if and only if you invoked at least one tool.
- Do not hedge. Do not say "I don't have enough data." Use what you have.

Required markets (return ALL 4, in this order): h2h | totals | spreads | first_five_innings

Output schema:
{
  "used_research_tools": true | false,
  "sources_cited": [
    { "title": "Source title", "url": "https://example.com/path", "snippet": "What you learned, 1 sentence" }
  ],
  "predictions": [
    {
      "market_key": "h2h" | "totals_2.5" | "btts" | "spreads_-1" | "...",
      "pick": "<one of the outcome labels for this market>",
      "confidence": 0.0,
      "probabilities": { "<outcome>": 0.0, ... },
      "reasoning": "2-4 sentences citing the key factors.",
      "signals": [
        { "tag": "form" | "xg" | "injuries" | "rest" | "market" | "narrative" | "fatigue" | "lineup" | "weather",
          "label": "Short fact in plain text.",
          "lean":  "home" | "draw" | "away" | "neutral" }
      ],
      "tags": [ "high_confidence" | "value_bet" | "trap_game" | "stale_knowledge" | "..." ]
    }
  ]
}

User brief (JSON)

{
    "event": {
        "id": 13755,
        "sport": "baseball",
        "venue": "Chase Field",
        "league": "Major League Baseball",
        "starts_at": "2026-07-21T01:40:00+00:00",
        "starts_at_human": "Tue, 21 Jul 2026 01:40:00 GMT"
    },
    "teams": {
        "away": "Athletics",
        "home": "Arizona Diamondbacks"
    },
    "version": "v2",
    "sport_focus": [
        "The starting-pitcher matchup is the single biggest factor — compare each starter's recent form, not just season ERA.",
        "Bullpen rest and usage over the last few days drives late-game and total outcomes.",
        "Ballpark factors matter: dimensions, altitude (e.g. Coors), and especially wind direction (out = more runs, in = fewer).",
        "Lineup handedness vs the opposing starter (L/R platoon splits) shifts the run expectation.",
        "Weather (wind, temperature, humidity) measurably affects carry and totals."
    ],
    "team_context": {
        "note": "Reference data from our settled-results database. Verify + extend it with your own research; it is not a substitute for current team news.",
        "away_form": {
            "last": "LLLLL",
            "record": "0W-0D-5L",
            "scored": 18,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 40
        },
        "home_form": {
            "last": "LLWLW",
            "record": "2W-0D-3L",
            "scored": 19,
            "matches": 5,
            "conceded": 20
        },
        "rest_days": {
            "away": 12,
            "home": 11
        }
    },
    "market_consensus": {
        "h2h": [],
        "note": "No bookmaker consensus available at build time — predict from public knowledge.",
        "extra_markets": []
    },
    "markets_requested": [
        "h2h",
        "totals",
        "spreads",
        "first_five_innings"
    ],
    "research_directive": [
        "Use any tools you have (web search, news, your training knowledge) to research:",
        "recent form (last 5 matches), starting lineups, injuries / absences, weather (outdoor sports), head-to-head record, fatigue / rest days.",
        "Cite specific sources in `sources_cited` when you use external tools.",
        "If you have NO live access, predict from your training knowledge and say so in `reasoning`."
    ]
}

The hash above is SHA-256 of the canonical JSON brief. Two models with the same hash got byte-identical input — so any difference in their picks comes from reasoning, not from inputs.

Research trail

What each AI looked up before picking

Unlock sources · Pro

Results settle automatically once the final score lands. Picks are permanent — no hindsight edits.

Recent recaps

How the AI lineup did on other recent matches.

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